Convective Control of ENSO Simulated in MIROC

Watanabe, Masahiro; Chikira, Minoru; Imada, Yukiko; Kimoto, Masahide

doi:10.1175/2010jcli3878.1

Cited by 105 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The radiative forcing of the RCPs is likely to correspond to global mean temperature increases between 0.3 and 4.8 • C by the end of the 21st century (2081-2100) relative to the 1986-2005 global mean temperature (in the 5 to 95 % range; Collins et al, 2013). The impact of climate change on crop yields was estimated for all RCPs by running LPJ-GUESS with climate inputs derived from five different general circulation models (GCMs; Collins et al, 2011;Dufresne et al, 2013;Dunne et al, 2013;Iversen et al, 2013;Watanabe et al, 2011).…”

Section: Conditional Probabilistic Futures Within the Ssp-rcp Scenarimentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

et al. 2016

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Abstract. We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

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Section: Conditional Probabilistic Futures Within the Ssp-rcp Scenarimentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

et al. 2016

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“…In the current study, we combine four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with five SSPs which are the lat- (Hempel et al, 2013;GCMs: Collins et al, 2013;Dufresne et al, 2013;Dunne et al, 2013;Iversen et al, 2013;Watanabe et al, 2011.) The climate data (0.5 • × 0.5 • resolution) were bias corrected by using the ISI-MIP approach that preserves trends in absolute changes in monthly temperature and relative changes in monthly precipitation amounts (Hempel et al, 2013).…”

Section: Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

et al. 2017

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Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways.Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging the transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

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“…Larger increases in the middle-level cloud albedo in the C-CO 2 runs are related to more cumulus congestus over the southern area of the Pacific ITCZ and less cumulus congestus over the ITCZ in the C-CTL runs. A wetter atmosphere over the southern part of the Pacific ITCZ increases precipitation anomalies related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (i.e., stronger Bjerknes feedback; Watanabe et al 2011a), which results in higher amplitudes of the ENSO (Fig. 12b).…”

Section: Metrics Related To the Sw Cloud Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we define the metric that measures the meridional contrast of middle-level cloud albedo in the C-CTL runs according to Watanabe et al (2011a):…”

Section: Metrics Related To the Sw Cloud Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By contrast, we did not identify any significant correlations between the ENSO amplitudes and the CS within the MME contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (not shown). ENSO amplitudes are determined by several processes (e.g., Guilyardi et al 2009;Collins et al 2010;Watanabe et al 2011a), and processes that are related to the uncertainty of the CS may differ among GCMs. Klocke et al (2011) identified a performance metric of specific cloud regions relating to climate sensitivity within the ECHAM5 PPE, but that relationship did not carry into the MME.…”

Section: Metrics Related To the Sw Cloud Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

et al. 2012

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In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2-3.2°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.

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Convective Control of ENSO Simulated in MIROC

Cited by 105 publications

References 49 publications

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

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