Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry

Rogelj, Joeri; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Chen, Claudine; Hare, Bill; Markmann, Kathleen; Meinshausen, Malte; Schaeffer, Michiel; Macey, Kirsten; Hoehne, Niklas

doi:10.1038/4641126a

Cited by 210 publications

(136 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Reaching the 2°C target with high likelihood implies a tight limit on future anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Various reports have concluded that pledged national 2020 reduction targets fall short of the reductions required to meet the 2°C target in an inter-temporally cost-optimal way (UNEP 2010(UNEP , 2011Rogelj et al 2010Rogelj et al , 2011. So far, model-based research on the implications of weak near-term policies in the context of ambitious long-term mitigation targets is in its infancy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

et al. 2013

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While the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting global warming to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented.We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world's regions. These scenarios clearly fall short of limiting warming to 2°C.We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO2e by 2100, when countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030 before pursuing the long-term mitigation target with global cooperative action. We find that after a deferral of ambitious action the 450 ppm CO2e is only achievable with a radical up-scaling of efforts after target adoption. This has severe effects on transformation pathways and exacerbates the challenges of climate stabilization, in particular for a delay of cooperative action until 2030. Specifically, reaching the target with weak nearterm action implies (a) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems in the medium term, (b) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, (c) higher longterm mitigation costs and carbon prices and (d) stronger transitional economic impacts, rendering the political feasibility of such pathways questionable.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

et al. 2013

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“…The recent Copenhagen Accord [16] contains an aim of limiting warming to no more than 2 • C, and draws on earlier targets from the EU and G8 [17,18]. Though not specified in the Copenhagen Accord, this 2 • C warming limit is usually presumed to be relative to pre-industrial levels [19]. Using the results in Allen et al [11], a 2 • C limit on the most likely peak CO 2 -induced warming could be achieved by limiting cumulative emissions to one trillion tonnes of carbon (1 TtC).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy

Bowerman

Frame

Huntingford

et al. 2011

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human-induced global warming and cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to emissions over shorter periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker. However, cumulative targets appear to conflict with the concept of a 'floor' in emissions caused by sectors such as food production. Here, we show that the introduction of emissions floors does not reduce the importance of cumulative emissions, but may make some warming targets unachievable. For pathways that give a most likely warming up to about 4 • C, cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant peak warming regardless of the shape of emissions floors used, providing a more natural long-term policy horizon than 2050 or 2100. The maximum rate of CO 2 -induced warming, which will affect the feasibility and cost of adapting to climate change, is not determined by cumulative emissions but is tightly aligned with peak rates of emissions. Hence, cumulative carbon emissions to 2200 and peak emission rates could provide a clear and simple framework for CO 2 mitigation policy.

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“…The top-down approach has made little progress over the last two decades 24 . An approach based on nationally determined contributions is now being explored 25 , but current commitments in sum are far short of what is needed to meet internationally agreed climate goals [26][27][28][29] .…”

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confidence: 99%

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

et al. 2014

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Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2°C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions

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Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry

Cited by 210 publications

References 2 publications

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

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