Copula-based drought risk assessment combined with an integrated index in the Wei River Basin, China

Chang, Jianxia; Li, Yunyun; Wang, Yimin; Yuan, Meng

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.064

Cited by 187 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Finally, we can conclude that the drought occurs more frequently in the northern part than the southern part of the WRB. This result is consistent with the previous studies, which used a variety of drought indices to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought frequency in WRB [51,52]. The reasons can be illustrated from the perspective of the spatial distribution of annual precipitation, which decreases from southeast to the northeast of the WRB.…”

Section: Pca On Pdsi_swat Time Seriessupporting

confidence: 91%

Drought Characteristic Analysis Based on an Improved PDSI in the Wei River Basin of China

Zou

Xia

She

2017

Water

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Abstract:In this study, to improve the efficiency of the original Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI_original), we coupled the Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) and PDSI_original to construct a drought index called PDSI_SWAT. The constructed PDSI_SWAT is applied in the Wei River Basin (WRB) of China during 1960-2012. The comparison of the PDSI_SWAT with four other commonly used drought indices reveals the effectiveness of the PDSI_SWAT in describing the drought propagation processes in WRB. The whole WRB exhibits a dry trend, with more significant trends in the northern, southeastern and western WRB than the remaining regions. Furthermore, the drought frequencies show that drought seems to occur more likely in the northern part than the southern part of WRB. The principle component analysis method based on the PDSI_SWAT reveals that the whole basin can be further divided into three distinct sub-regions with different drought variability, i.e., the northern, southeastern and western part. Additionally, these three sub-regions are also consistent with the spatial pattern of drought shown by the drought frequency. The wavelet transform analysis method indicates that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have strong impacts on inducing droughts in the WRB. The results of this study could be beneficial for a scientific water resources management and drought assessment in the current study area and also provide a valuable reference for other areas with similar climatic characteristics.

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Section: Pca On Pdsi_swat Time Seriessupporting

confidence: 91%

Drought Characteristic Analysis Based on an Improved PDSI in the Wei River Basin of China

Zou

Xia

She

2017

Water

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“…Previous studies have focused on the analysis of hydrological drought frequency including risk, return period, trend, periodicity, change trends of duration and magnitude, as well as the multivariate joint distributions (Al‐Faraj & Scholz, ; Chang et al, ; Lopez‐Moreno et al, ; Shiau, ; Wong et al, ; Wu et al, , ). Several recent studies have analyzed the propagation time from meteorological drought to hydrological drought (Lorenzo‐Lacruz et al, ; Van Loon et al, ) and the impact factors on the propagation time (such as temperature, catchment characteristics, land use/cover change, reservoir regulation) using linear and nonlinear correlation analysis methods (e.g., Pearson correlation analysis, Spearman correlation analysis, Budyko hypothesis, and logarithmic function; Apurv et al, ; Barker et al, ; Huang et al, ; Van Loon et al, ; Wu et al, , ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Drought Instantaneous Propagation Speed Based on the Variable Motion Relationship of Speed‐Time Process

Chen

Yao

et al. 2018

Water Resources Research

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It is difficult to predict and track the propagation of a hydrological drought because it is hard to determine its propagation speed. We propose a useful framework for calculating the hydrological drought instantaneous propagation speed which includes the instantaneous development speed (IDS) and instantaneous recovery speed (IRS). First, the run theory was applied to subdivide the propagation of individual hydrological drought events into the development and recovery stages and to determine the individual propagation times (drought development duration and drought recovery duration). Then the hydrological drought instantaneous propagation speed of each hydrological drought event, including the IDS and IRS, were determined based on the variable motion relationship of speed‐time process commonly applied in physics. Finally, the optimal theoretical values of the IDS and IRS were evaluated using a cross‐validation method. Three hydrometric stations, located at the upstream catchment with less human activities influence, were chosen from different countries (China, the United States, and Germany) to demonstrate the satisfactory performance of this proposed framework. The results indicate that the variable motion relationship of speed‐time process can provide an assessment of the overall hydrological drought propagation and perform well for identifying the propagation time in these study areas. The optimal theoretical values of IDS (or IRS) obtained by the variable motion relationship can simulate the actual drought development duration (or drought recovery duration) of hydrological drought well. The sensitivity of IDS (or IRS) of hydrological drought is correlated with climate, catchment characteristics, and human activities that should be explored to improve hydrological drought propagation prediction.

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“…However, using an individual index has difficulty in capturing the diverse characteristics of droughts, such as runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, base flow, and groundwater flow (Chang et al, ). In recent years, several integrated drought indices that have coupled drought‐related factors from meteorological, hydrological, or agricultural information have been investigated (Hao & AghaKouchak, ; Kao & Govindaraju, ; Rajsekhar et al, ; Safavi et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reservoir Operations to Mitigate Drought Effects With a Hedging Policy Triggered by the Drought Prevention Limiting Water Level

Chang

Guo

Wang

et al. 2019

Water Resources Research

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Severe drought events worldwide have considerably unfavorable effects on social and economic development. This paper proposes a hedging policy triggered by the seasonal drought prevention limiting water level (DPLWL) for reservoir operations during a drought event. By using this hedging policy, water resources managers can determine operating policies for drought emergence management according to specific drought conditions. A modeling framework that determines the seasonal DPLWL under different drought conditions is developed based on long-term hydrological and meteorological information and optimal reservoir operation schemes. In particular, Fisher's optimal partitioning algorithm is applied to identifying the seasonality of the DPLWL based on hydroclimatological factors and reservoir storage conditions. The multireservoir system in the Yellow River Basin is used as a case study to assess the performance of the hedging policy triggered by DPLWLs. The results show that DPLWL has a significant advantage over the standard reservoir operation rules when dealing with multireservoir operation for drought mitigation.Plain Language Summary Droughts, which can be a creeping disaster, can cause both natural environmental and social damage. This paper first proposes a hedging policy triggered by the drought prevention limiting water level (DPLWL) for reservoir operations to mitigate drought impacts. Furthermore, a new framework is developed to determine seasonal DPLWLs. This framework is applied to the Yellow River Basin, of which the water flow is regulated by a series of large reservoirs. This study extends the literature on hedging rules for reservoir operation by proposing a new methodology coupled with the DPLWLs, the multivariate integrated drought index (MIDI), and a reservoir operation model. The proposed approach is of great significance for decision makers in water resources management during droughts, particularly in the context of global warming.

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Copula-based drought risk assessment combined with an integrated index in the Wei River Basin, China

Cited by 187 publications

References 47 publications

Drought Characteristic Analysis Based on an Improved PDSI in the Wei River Basin of China

Drought Characteristic Analysis Based on an Improved PDSI in the Wei River Basin of China

Hydrological Drought Instantaneous Propagation Speed Based on the Variable Motion Relationship of Speed‐Time Process

Reservoir Operations to Mitigate Drought Effects With a Hedging Policy Triggered by the Drought Prevention Limiting Water Level

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