Cost analysis of global road traffic death prevention: Forecasts to 2050

Moyer, Jonathan D.; Eshbaugh, Mark; Rettig, Jessica

doi:10.1111/dpr.12263

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…The IFs model 55 is an integrated assessment tool that includes the following dynamically interconnected systems: agriculture 56 , climate 57 , 58 , conflict 59 , demographics 55 , economics 60 , 61 , education 62 , energy 63 , gender 64 , governance 65 , health 66 – 68 , infrastructure 69 , international relations 70 , 71 , poverty 53 , 72 , and technology 73 . IFs can be used to explore broad questions of integrated development within and across systems and forecasts variables for 186 countries from 2017 to 2100.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

Moyer

2023

Sci Rep

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Degrowth advocates argue for structural transformations in how economies and societies prioritize material wealth accumulation to reduce the negative effects of future anthropogenic climate change. Degrowth proponents argue that human economic activity could be lessened, and societies transformed to prioritize improved wellbeing, reducing the threat of climate change. This paper explores implications of alternative patterns of economic growth with transformational policy pathways (i.e., redistribution) to assess what effects economic growth and broader policies have on changing patterns of human development across both the Global North and South. Using the International Futures model, this article shows that negative growth and societal transformations in the Global North are possible without dramatically damaging long-term global socioeconomic development, though these interventions do not solve the global climate crisis, reducing future cumulative carbon emissions by 10.5% through 2100. On the other hand, a global negative growth scenario will significantly reduce future cumulative carbon emissions (45%) but also dramatically undermines the pursuit of global development goals, like the elimination of poverty. Even with global policies that significantly increase cash transfers to the poor and retired, dramatically improve income inequality, and eliminate military spending, the Global Negative Growth Big Push scenario leads to an increase of 15 percentage points in global extreme poverty by 2100.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

Moyer

2023

Sci Rep

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“…The poverty model is embedded within a larger system of agricultural, demography, education, economic, energy, environmental, health, infrastructure, governance, security, and technological models [54]. IFs has been used in a variety of research on poverty and other measures of human development [4,5,8,48,[55][56][57], with a recent focus on the effects of COVID-19 on extreme poverty, and more generally human and economic development [17,19,[58][59][60].…”

Section: Modeling Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? A long-term forecast to 2050 with alternative scenarios

et al. 2022

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The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of human development. In this manuscript we analyze the long-term effect of COVID-19 on poverty at the country-level across various income thresholds to 2050. We do this by introducing eight quantitative scenarios that model the future of Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG1) achievement using alternative assumptions about COVID-19 effects on both economic growth and inequality in the International Futures model. Relative to a scenario without the pandemic (the No COVID scenario), the COVID Base scenario increases global extreme poverty by 73.9 million in 2020 (the range across all scenarios: 43.5 to 155.0 million), 63.6 million in 2030 (range: 9.8 to 167.2 million) and 57.1 million in 2050 (range: 3.1 to 163.0 million). The COVID Base results in seven more countries not meeting the SDG1 target by 2030 that would have achieved the target in a No COVID scenario. The most pessimistic scenario results in 17 more countries not achieving SDG1 compared with a No COVID scenario. The greatest pandemic driven increases in poverty occur in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

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“…Nearly 1.25 million people worldwide are killed and up to 50 million people are injured on the world's roads every year (Toroyan, et al, 2013). Despite the United Nations Development Programme target to reduce traffic deaths and injuries by 50% by 2020 (Toroyan et al, 2013), it still presents a serious public health threat with technological advancements in the transport sector including use of boda-boda (motorcycles) (Moyer et al, 2017). Consequences of road traffic accidents are mainly reflected…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Proceedings of the 2021 Australasian Road Safety Conference - Melbourne

Grzebieta

2021

ARSC

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These proceedings describe research, educational and policing program implementation and policy and management strategies related to all aspects of road safety and especially related to the conference theme of Towards Zero: A Fresh Approach. The 2021 conference covers a comprehensive range of topics including speed, infrastructure and road design, education, licensing, vehicle design, impairment due to alcohol, drugs and mobile phones. The conference also presents innovative symposium sessions including interdisciplinary approaches combining safety, the law and design and showcasing successful programs involving at-risk youth, older drivers and safety approaches for non-occupants, specifically when we walk and ride a bicycle. Around 600 delegates from 28 countries attended the on-line virtual conference, held in this format because of COVID 19 restrictions. Authors of accepted Extended Abstracts and Full Papers represented international and local institutions from all aspects of their respective communities including research centres, private companies, government agencies and community groups. The Extended Abstracts and links to Full Papers presented in these Proceedings provide an indication of the important work being done in Australia, New Zealand and internationally as part of the United Nations, One UN Vision for Road Safety to reduce the number of crashes roads by 50 percent by 2030.

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Cost analysis of global road traffic death prevention: Forecasts to 2050

Cited by 10 publications

References 10 publications

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? A long-term forecast to 2050 with alternative scenarios

Proceedings of the 2021 Australasian Road Safety Conference - Melbourne

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