We studied the health and economic effects of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing in cervical screening using a simulation model. The key data source was a Dutch longitudinal screening trial. We compared cytological testing with repeat cytology (for borderline/mildly abnormal smears) to HPV testing with cytology triage (for HPV-positive smears), combination testing (combined HPV and cytology) and cytological testing with HPV triage (for borderline/mildly abnormal smears). We varied the screening interval from 5 to 10 years. The main outcome measures were the number of cervical cancer cases, the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The base-case estimates were accompanied with ranges across 118 calibrated parameter settings (calibration criteria: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3, cancer and mortality rates). In comparison to 5-yearly cytology, 5-yearly HPV testing with cytology triage gave a reduction in the number of cancer cases of 23% (range, 9-27%). The reduction was 26% (range, 10-29%) for combination testing and 3% (range, 21 to 8%) for cytology with HPV triage. For strategies with primary HPV testing, the model also estimated a reduction in cancer cases when the screening interval was extended to 7.5 years. Five-yearly cytology with HPV triage and 5 to 7.5-yearly HPV testing with cytology triage were cost effective for the base-case settings and the majority of calibrated parameter settings (ICER below Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000/QALY). Our model indicates that HPV testing with cytology triage is likely to be cost effective. An extension of the screening interval may be considered to control costs.Since the implementation of screening, the incidence of cervical cancer has markedly decreased in developed countries. A further reduction is anticipated in the future as vaccines are now available that protect against infection with HPV types 16 and 18.1-3 Because the HPV vaccines only have a prophylactic effect, they are expected to be the most effective when given before the start of sexual activity. For older nonvaccinated women, screening will remain the most important instrument for cervical cancer prevention.The primary screening modality presently used in cervical screening is the Pap test. Although this test has formed the basis for successful screening programs (e.g., in the UK, Finland, Sweden and The Netherlands), its sensitivity is limited and the use of a more sensitive test such as the human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA test 4,5 may lead to a further reduction in the cervical cancer incidence. Several longitudinal trials have been started in the last 10 years, comparing the Pap test to the HPV test or a combination of both tests. [6][7][8][9][10][11] The first analyses have demonstrated that HPV testing in women more than 30 years of age detects more high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or cancer (CIN2þ) than cytology and that the CIN2þ risk is lower after an HPV-negative result at the previous screening ...