Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons

Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Purohit, Pallav; Amann, Markus; Bertok, I.; Rafaj, Peter; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Borken‐Kleefeld, J.

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.006

Cited by 67 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Early, ambitious HFC reduction could lead to substantially lower emissions (in 2030: 80-88% lower than NDC + 2degC for the four models). This reduction estimate is significantly higher (in 2030: 30-35%) than what can be expected from the Kigali Amendment (in 2030: 54-58% reduction (Höglund-Isaksson et al 2017;PBL 2015). As such, considering very deep HFC reductions as a SLCF measure additional to the Kigali Amendment and the NDCs seems legitimate.…”

Section: Hydrofluorocarbon Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 72%

Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

et al. 2019

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Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2°C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15°C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes.

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Section: Hydrofluorocarbon Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 72%

Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

et al. 2019

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“…Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has previously been used to produce detailed future scenarios for HFC emissions to 2050 (Höglund-Isaksson et al, 2017;Purohit and Höglund-Isaksson, 2017), which have fed into climate models to assess potential 60 impacts on global warming (e.g., UNEP/CCAC, 2018; Rogelj et al, 2018;UNEP, 2017;Gambhir et al, 2017). This study extends on previous work by producing long-term scenarios of HFC emissions to the year 2100 under varying degrees of https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-193 Preprint.…”

Section: The Greenhouse Gas -Air Pollution Interactions and Synergiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, the mitigation scenarios developed here assume the same demand for cooling services as in the respective baselines, but with the consumption of high-GWP HFCs replaced by alternative low-GWP technologies. The choice and order of adoption of technologies in a given sector are determined by marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) estimated on the basis of baseline 85 HFC consumption (Höglund-Isaksson et al, 2017). For descriptions of key drivers at the sectoral level, source-specific emission factors and implemented control policies, see the supplementary material of Purohit and Höglund-Isaksson (2017).…”

Section: Baseline Scenarios 70mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The baseline scenarios improve upon those presented in Purohit and Höglund-Isaksson (2017) and Höglund-Isaksson et al, (2017) not only by extending the scenarios to 2100, but also by making use of the information on historical HFC consumption by sector and HFC species that has recently become available at increasingly greater detail from the National reporting to the 90 UNFCCC. The principal information sources used to estimate historical HFC consumption and emissions are: 1) robust 1 Ninety-three signatories have ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on phasing down HFCs worldwide until 24th February 2020 (UN, 2020).…”

Section: Baseline Scenarios 70mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Electricity savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions from global phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons

Purohit¹,

Höglund-Isaksson²,

Dulac³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are widely used as cooling agents in refrigeration and air conditioning, as solvents in industrial processes, as fire extinguishing agents, for foam blowing and as aerosol propellants. They have been the primary substitutes for ozone-depleting substances regulated under the Montreal Protocol (MP). However, HFCs are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs) and as such subject to global phase-down under the Kigali Amendment (KA) to the MP. In this study, we develop a range of long-term scenarios for HFC emissions under varying degrees of stringency in climate policy and assess co-benefits in the form of electricity savings and associated reductions in GHG and air pollutant emissions. Due to technical opportunities to improve energy efficiency in cooling technologies during the phase-down of HFCs, there exist potentials for significant electricity savings under a well-managed phase-down of HFCs. Our results show that annual pre-KA baseline emissions of HFCs are expected to increase from almost 0.5 to about 4.3 Gt CO2eq between 2005 and 2050 and reach between 6.2 and 6.8 Gt CO2eq in 2100. The growth is driven by a strong increase in demand for refrigeration and air conditioning services, which in turn is driven by an expected increase in per capita wealth in developing countries and a warmer future climate. We estimate that full compliance with KA means cumulative global HFC emissions that are 87 % lower than in the pre-KA baseline between 2018 and 2100. Also, the opportunity to simultaneously improve energy efficiency in stationary cooling technologies during such a transition could bring about additional climate benefits of about the same magnitude as that attributed to the phase-down of HFCs. If technical energy efficiency improvements are fully implemented, the resulting electricity savings could exceed a fifth of future global electricity consumption. Together with an HFC phase-down, this means preventing between 390 and 640 Gt CO2 equivalent of GHG emissions between 2018 and 2100, thereby making a significant contribution towards keeping the global temperature rise below 2 °C. Reduced electricity consumption also means lower air pollution emissions in the power sector, estimated at about 10 % for SO2, 16 % for NOx and 9 % for PM2.5 emissions, compared with a pre-KA baseline.

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“…There are opportunities to decrease methane emissions associated with the extraction of coal, oil and natural gas, disposal of waste, switching management of emissions from livestock and manure and rice paddy production. Compliance with the Kigali Amendment (United Nations 2016) will decrease hydrofluorocarbon emissions by 61 per cent from 2018 to 2050 compared to a reference scenario, but substitutions could be made earlier and a 98 per cent decrease is technically possible (Höglund-Isaksson et al 2017). Implementation of such demonstrated technical measures to address SLCP could decrease average global warming, although estimates on the exact level differ by study (United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP] 2017) (see also Box 22.3).…”

Section: Controlling Air Pollutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

2019

Global Environment Outlook – GEO-6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People

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Oceans are expected to continue to be polluted and overexploited (established, but incomplete). Nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) flows from freshwater into world oceans exceed sustainable levels and as a result the risks of dead zones and toxic algae blooms in coastal areas are projected to increase. This is largely related to increased fertilizer use in agricultural production and developments in wastewater treatment that are lagging behind improvements in access to sanitation. As a result of an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2), oceans are expected to further acidify, negatively affecting marine organisms' ability to create shells and skeletons or even resulting in their dissolution. Acidification is expected to increase most rapidly in polar regions. Finally, under current fishing strategies, the projected increase in demand for fish is expected to reduce the proportion of fish stocks that remain at biologically sustainable levels. {21.3.5} Preventable environmental health risks are projected to remain prominent in 2030, with related negative impacts on child mortality (established, but incomplete). Nearly one-quarter of all deaths globally in 2012 can be attributed to environmental factors, with a greater portion occurring in vulnerable populations (children and the elderly) and in developing countries. Prominent environmental risk factorsi.e. exposure to ambient air pollution, and not having access to clean water, adequate sanitation or modern energy servicestogether with global hunger are expected to improve towards 2030, but not fast enough to achieve related targets in all countries. Related global child mortality is projected to decline, but not enough to achieve the SDG targets in many developing countries. Especially in sub-Saharan Africa, child mortality rates remain high, with a continued, although smaller, share related to preventable environmental risk factors. {21.3.6}

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Cost estimates of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons

Cited by 67 publications

References 8 publications

Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Electricity savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions from global phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons

Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

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