Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Harmsen, Mathijs; Fricko, Oliver; Hilaire, Jérôme; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Drouet, Laurent; Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Keramidas, Kimon; Klimont, Zbigniew; Luderer, Gunnar; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Riahi, Keywan; Sano, Fuminori; Smith, Steve

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02436-3

Cited by 21 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The maximum additional benefit of the SLCF reductions, applied in addition to the comprehensive climate policy, is in 2040 for most models. The magnitude of the additional SLCF temperature reduction varies from near zero to 0.07°/0.08°C in 2030/2040 (similar to that found in Harmsen et al 2019b). This is much smaller than the reduction due to the SLCF policy in isolation, since much of the methane reductions and some of the BC-oriented reductions also occur under a comprehensive climate policy.…”

Section: Results Using Central Climate Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 50%

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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

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The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

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Section: Results Using Central Climate Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 50%

“…Results for methane are more robust, although uncertainties remain (Harmsen et al 2019b). Methane contributes the largest amount to temperature reduction in the SLCF scenarios considered here with central case temperature reductions of around 0.2°C by mid-century.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

et al. 2020

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“…These models have been previously used in energy and climate policy research, as described for instance by Krey et al (2019), Riahi et al (2017), Luderer et al (2017), Kriegler et al (2014Kriegler et al ( , 2015, Tavoni et al (2015) andVan Vuuren et al (2011). More information can be found in Supplementary Information and is presented in Harmsen et al (2019bHarmsen et al ( , 2019c. Other studies in the EMF-30 exercise include Harmsen et al (2019a), Smith et al (2019), Rauner et al (2019) and Chantret et al (2019).…”

Section: Sectoral Air Quality Co-benefits: Multi-model Ensemblementioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions

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The overlap in sources of greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions creates scope for policy measures to limit global warming and improve air quality simultaneously. In a first step, we derive estimates for the air pollution mortality-related component of the social cost of atmospheric release for 6 pollutants and 56 regions in the world. Combining these estimates with emission inventory data highlights that sector contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution health impacts differ widely across regions. Next, simulations of future emission pathways consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets illustrate that strengthening climate policy ambition raises the total value of air quality co-benefits despite lower marginal co-benefits per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions abated. Finally, we use results from a multimodel ensemble to quantify and compare the value of health-related ambient air quality cobenefits of climate policy across sectors and regions. On the global level, overall air quality cobenefits range from $8 to $40 per tonne of greenhouse gases abated in 2030, with median across models and scenarios of $18/tCO 2 e. These results mask strong differentiation across regions and sectors, with median co-benefits from mitigation in the residential and service sectors in India exceeding $500/tCO 2 e. By taking a sector-and region-specific perspective, the results presented here reveal promising channels to improve human health outcomes and to ratchet up greenhouse gas reduction efforts to bridge the gap between countries' pledges and the global targets of the Paris Agreement.

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“…While some SLCFs with a warming contribution to temperature change can, in part, be mitigated individually (in particular methane), improving air quality requires consideration of all relevant species. Removal of all present-day anthropogenic aerosols may add as much as 0.5 • C of additional global near-term warming according to recent work (Hienola et al, 2018;Samset et al, 2018;Aamaas et al, 2019). Due to co-emission, species such as sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) are also commonly affected by measures to reduce climate warming even if these have LLGHGs as the primary target.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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Abstract. Mitigation of non-CO2 emissions plays a key role in meeting the Paris Agreement ambitions and sustainable development goals. Implementation of respective policies addressing these targets mainly occur at sectoral and regional levels, and designing efficient mitigation strategies therefore relies on detailed knowledge about the mix of emissions from individual sources and their subsequent climate impact. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of near- and long-term global temperature responses to emissions of CO2 and individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from 7 sectors and 13 regions – for both present-day emissions and their continued evolution as projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We demonstrate the key role of CO2 in driving both near- and long-term warming and highlight the importance of mitigating methane emissions from agriculture, waste management, and energy production as the primary strategy to further limit near-term warming. Due to high current emissions of cooling SLCFs, policies targeting end-of-pipe energy sector emissions may result in net added warming unless accompanied by simultaneous methane and/or CO2 reductions. We find that SLCFs are projected to play a continued role in many regions, particularly those including low- to medium-income countries, under most of the SSPs considered here. East Asia, North America, and Europe will remain the largest contributors to total net warming until 2100, regardless of scenario, while South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara overtake Europe by the end of the century in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Our dataset is made available in an accessible format, aimed also at decision makers, to support further assessment of the implications of policy implementation at the sectoral and regional scales.

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Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Cited by 21 publications

References 29 publications

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

Quantifying air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions

A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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