Costs of IQ Loss from Leaded Aviation Gasoline Emissions

Abstract

In the United States, general aviation piston-driven aircraft are now the largest source of lead emitted to the atmosphere. Elevated lead concentrations impair children’s IQ and can lead to lower earnings potentials. This study is the first assessment of the nationwide annual costs of IQ losses from aircraft lead emissions. We develop a general aviation emissions inventory for the continental United States and model its impact on atmospheric concentrations using the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). We use these concentrations to quantify the impacts of annual aviation lead emissions on the U.S. population using two methods: through static estimates of cohort-wide IQ deficits and through dynamic economy-wide effects using a computational general equilibrium model. We also examine the sensitivity of these damage estimates to different background lead concentrations, showing the impact of lead controls and regulations on marginal costs. We find that aircraft-attributable lead contributes to $1.06 billion 2006 USD ($0.01 – $11.6) in annual damages from lifetime earnings reductions, and that dynamic economy-wide methods result in damage estimates that are 54% larger. Because the marginal costs of lead are dependent on background concentration, the costs of piston-driven aircraft lead emissions are expected to increase over time as regulations on other emissions sources are tightened.

Cardiovascular Mortality and Leaded Aviation Fuel: Evidence from Piston-Engine Air Traffic in North Carolina

“…A recent report examining an airport in Santa Clara County, California, found higher children's BLLs closer to the airport, downwind of the airport, and in months with more piston-engine air traffic [8]. Wolfe et al did not conduct an empirical analysis of children's BLL but instead used air quality modeling and existing statistical relationships between air lead concentrations, blood lead levels, and children's IQ to estimate the social costs of leaded avgas emissions [18]. They estimated that aircraft-related emissions cause over USD 1 billion in losses annually due to cognitive damages that reduce children's lifetime earnings.…”

Asbestos, leaded petrol, and other aberrations: comparing countries’ regulatory responses to disapproved products and technologies

“…Leaded petrol was also reintroduced in 2000 in the United Kingdom after pressure from classic-car lobby groups. 9 Leaded petrol continues to be used by small aircraft, which is detrimental to public health (Wolfe et al 2016).…”

Aviation Fuels and Biofuels

“…The most used additives are 1,2-dibromoethane and 1,2-dichloroethane [12]. Despite the significant decrease, it is estimated that the effects of lead to human health cause losses in the US economy of approximately US $ 1.06 billion annually due to public health impacts [13].…”