Cotton production forecasts of Azerbaijan in the 2023-2027 periods

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the production area and amount for the years 2023-2027, taking into account the 1992-2022 cotton production area and production data of Azerbaijan, one of the countries that left the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1992. Material and methods: The data used in this study were obtained from FAOSTAT and the State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The ARIMA method, which is one of the most commonly used methods for univariate time-series estimation, was used in this study. Results: It was estimated that the production area will decrease continuously in 2023-2027, the average production area and production will be 91,942 ha and 324,156 tons, respectively, and the yield will be 3,549 kg/ha in these five years. Conclusion: These results indicated that although the increase in productivity in Azerbaijan provides a significant increase in production, the production area should also be increased to become one of the leading countries in the world market. For this, government support needs to be increased.