Could India be the origin of next COVID-19 like epidemic?

Minhas, S.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138918

Cited by 16 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…India with its 1.3 billion population is highly overpopulated and is constantly at high risk due to COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks (Minhas 2020 ). As of July 06, 2020, India, after USA, and Brazil have the maximum COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases in the world in the wake of striking its first case on January 30, 2020 (WHO 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between climatic variables and COVID-19 pandemic in National Capital Territory of Delhi, India

Singh

Bhardwaj²,

Kumar³

2020

Environ Dev Sustain

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Globally, since the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been recognized as a severe infectious disease. Therefore, this study has been attempted to examine the linkage between climatic variables and COVID-19 particularly in National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCT of Delhi), India. For this, daily data of COVID-19 has been used for the period March 14 to June 11, 2020, (90 days). Eight climatic variables such as maximum, minimum and mean temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), bright sunshine hours, wind speed (km/h), evaporation (mm), and rainfall (mm) have been analyzed in relation to COVID-19. To study the relationship among different climatic variables and COVID-19 spread, Karl Pearson's correlation analysis has been performed. The Mann-Kendall method and Sen's slope estimator have been used to detect the direction and magnitude of COVID-19 trends, respectively. The results have shown that out of eight selected climatic variables, six variables, viz. maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, and wind speed are positively associated with coronavirus disease cases (statistically significant at 95 and 99% confidence levels). No association of coronavirus disease has been found with bright sunshine hours and rainfall. Besides, COVID-19 cases and deaths have shown increasing trends, significant at 99% confidence level. The results of this study suggest that climatic conditions in NCT of Delhi are favorable for COVID-19 and the disease may spread further with the increasing temperature, relative humidity, evaporation and wind speed. This is the only study which has presented the analysis of COVID-19 spread in relation to several climatic variables for the most densely populated and rapidly growing city of India. Thus, considering the results obtained, effective policies and actions are necessary especially by identifying the areas where the spread rate is increasing rapidly in this megacity. The prevention and protection measures should be adopted aiming at to reduce the further transmission of disease in the city.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between climatic variables and COVID-19 pandemic in National Capital Territory of Delhi, India

Singh

Bhardwaj²,

Kumar³

2020

Environ Dev Sustain

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“…At the time of writing this article, India had 82,000 positive con rmed cases (Covid19 2020) and was expected to overtake China's total COVID-19 cases shortly. Minhas (2020), in his study, points out that India is another potential epicenter of the global COVID-19 pandemic due to human overpopulation and unhygienic living conditions (Minhas 2020). Containing the spread of the virus among the economically disadvantaged people, who may not be able to self-isolate, is a challenge.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Prevalence of COVID-19 in Maharashtra, Delhi, Kerala, and India using an ARIMA model

Marbaniang

2020

Preprint

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Aims: As the whole world was preparing to welcome the year 2020, a new deadly virus, COVID-19, was reported in the Wuhan city of China in late December 2019. By May 18, 2020, approximately 4.7 million cases and 0.32 million deaths had been reported globally. There is an urgent need to predict the COVID-19 prevalence to control the spread of the virus.Methods: Time-series analyses can help understand the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and take appropriate measures to curb the spread of the disease. In this study, an ARIMA model was developed to predict the trend of COVID-19 prevalence in the states of Maharashtra, Delhi and Kerala, and India as a whole.Results: The prevalence of COVID-19 from 16 March 2020 to 17 May 2020 was collected from the website of Covid19india. Several ARIMA models were generated along with the performance measures. ARIMA (2,3,1), ARIMA (2,2,0), ARIMA (2,2,0), and ARIMA (1,3,1) with the lowest MAPE (5.430, 10.440, 2.607, and 2.390) for Maharashtra, Delhi, Kerala, and India were selected as the best fit models respectively. The findings show that over the next 20 days, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases may increase to 2.45 lakhs in India, 93,709 in Maharashtra, 19,847 in Delhi, and 925 in Kerala.Conclusion: The results of this study can throw light on the intensity of the epidemic in the future and will help the government administrations in Maharashtra, Delhi, and Kerala to formulate effective measures and policy interventions to curb the virus in the coming days.

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“…While the presence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in the water environment have received considerable attention, the food environment has received less attention with few publications available on the presence and persistence of SAR-CoV-2 on food and food materials ( Zuber and Brüssow, 2020 ). Meanwhile, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 linked to Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, where food items of both plant and animal origins are sold, among which are bats and pangolins that are considered possible natural and intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 and other mammalian viruses ( Li et al, 2020 ; Minhas, 2020 ; Cyranoski, 2020 ). The ability of the virus hosts to infect other livestock and the contact of saliva, urine, or feces with fruits and other food items meant for human consumption from these hosts could lead to spillover zoonotic transmission to humans ( Minhas, 2020 ).…”

Section: Life Cycle and Persistence Of Sars-cov-2 In Water-food- Environment Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meanwhile, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 linked to Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, where food items of both plant and animal origins are sold, among which are bats and pangolins that are considered possible natural and intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 and other mammalian viruses ( Li et al, 2020 ; Minhas, 2020 ; Cyranoski, 2020 ). The ability of the virus hosts to infect other livestock and the contact of saliva, urine, or feces with fruits and other food items meant for human consumption from these hosts could lead to spillover zoonotic transmission to humans ( Minhas, 2020 ). The selling of these animals serving as potential SARS-CoV-2 hosts along with other agricultural products in such a big environment could possibly lead to the presence of the virus and likewise its substantial contamination of both other food items and the environment ( Duda-Chodak et al, 2020 ; Yadav et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Life Cycle and Persistence Of Sars-cov-2 In Water-food- Environment Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring the presence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in water-food-environmental compartments: State of the knowledge and research needs

Adelodun

Ajibade

Tiamiyu

et al. 2021

Environmental Research

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The recent spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SAR-CoV-2) and the accompanied coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has continued ceaselessly despite the implementations of popular measures, which include social distancing and outdoor face masking as recommended by the World Health Organization. Due to the unstable nature of the virus, leading to the emergence of new variants that are claimed to be more and rapidly transmissible, there is a need for further consideration of the alternative potential pathways of the virus transmissions to provide the needed and effective control measures. This review aims to address this important issue by examining the transmission pathways of SARS-CoV-2 via indirect contacts such as fomites and aerosols, extending to water, food, and other environmental compartments. This is essentially required to shed more light regarding the speculation of the virus spread through these media as the available information regarding this is fragmented in the literature. The existing state of the information on the presence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in water-food-environmental compartments is essential for cause-and-effect relationships of human interactions and environmental samples to safeguard the possible transmission and associated risks through these media. Furthermore, the integration of effective remedial measures previously used to tackle the viral outbreaks and pandemics, and the development of new sustainable measures targeting at monitoring and curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 were emphasized. This study concluded that alternative transmission pathways via human interactions with environmental samples should not be ignored due to the evolving of more infectious and transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants.

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Could India be the origin of next COVID-19 like epidemic?

Cited by 16 publications

References 4 publications

Association between climatic variables and COVID-19 pandemic in National Capital Territory of Delhi, India

Association between climatic variables and COVID-19 pandemic in National Capital Territory of Delhi, India

Forecasting the Prevalence of COVID-19 in Maharashtra, Delhi, Kerala, and India using an ARIMA model

Monitoring the presence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in water-food-environmental compartments: State of the knowledge and research needs

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