Coupled Atmosphere‐Fire Simulations of the Black Saturday Kilmore East Wildfires With the Unified Model

Toivanen, J.; Engel, Chermelle; Reeder, Michael J.; Lane, Todd P.; Davies, Laura; Webster, Stuart; Wales, Scott

doi:10.1029/2017ms001245

Cited by 16 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…More extreme cases of spotting are characterised by long distances (up to many kilometres) and/or the ignition of tens or hundreds of spot fires in mass spotting events [10,11]. Interaction between multiple spot fires and the source fire potentially increases burning intensity, flame heights [12], and wildfire spread rates over large areas [11,13]. Such interactions are likely to depend on the distribution of spot fires (number and distances); for example, multiple spot fires in close proximity (to the source fire and/or other spot fires) are likely to interact, whereas isolated spot fires are not.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Variation in Distance, Number, and Distribution of Spotting in Southeast Australian Wildfires

Storey

Price

Bradstock

et al. 2020

Fire

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Spotting during wildfires can significantly influence the way wildfires spread and reduce the chances of successful containment by fire crews. However, there is little published empirical evidence of the phenomenon. In this study, we have analysed spotting patterns observed from 251 wildfires from a database of over 8000 aerial line scan images capturing active wildfire across mainland southeast Australia between 2002 and 2018. The images were used to measure spot fire numbers, number of “long-distance” spot fires (> 500 m), and maximum spotting distance. We describe three types of spotting distance distributions, compare patterns among different regions of southeast Australia, and associate these with broad measures of rainfall, elevation, and fuel type. We found a relatively high correlation between spotting distance and numbers; however, there were also several cases of wildfires with low spot fire numbers producing very long-distance spot fires. Most long-distance spotting was associated with a “multi-modal” distribution type, where high numbers of spot fires ignite close to the source fire and isolated or small clumps of spot fires ignite at longer distances. The multi-modal distribution suggests that current models of spotting distance, which typically follow an exponential-shaped distribution, could underestimate long-distance spotting. We also found considerable regional variation in spotting phenomena that may be associated with significant variation in rainfall, topographic ruggedness, and fuel descriptors. East Victoria was the most spot-fire-prone of the regions, particularly in terms of long-distance spotting.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Variation in Distance, Number, and Distribution of Spotting in Southeast Australian Wildfires

Storey

Price

Bradstock

et al. 2020

Fire

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“…Although infrared video from that fire suggests lee slope rotors may not have formed, the high numbers of spot fires that merged resulted in a similar effect to that of our hill present experiments. Moreover, coupled modelling by Toivanen, Engel [ 38 ] found that the spread of the Kilmore East wildfire in 2009 (Victoria, Australia) could be reproduced only if the ignition and merging of 18 downwind spot fires was incorporated. These suggest that, considering the combined ROS, spotting and merging might be important not just over a single slope (as in our experiments), but over a much larger scale (spotting occurred up to 30 km away in the Kilmore East wildfire [ 1 ]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experiments on the influence of spot fire and topography interaction on fire rate of spread

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Almeida³

et al. 2021

PLoS ONE

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Spotting is thought to increase wildfire rate of spread (ROS) and in some cases become the main mechanism for spread. The role of spotting in wildfire spread is controlled by many factors including fire intensity, number of and distance between spot fires, weather, fuel characteristics and topography. Through a set of 30 laboratory fire experiments on a 3 m x 4 m fuel bed, subject to air flow, we explored the influence of manually ignited spot fires (0, 1 or 2), the presence or absence of a model hill and their interaction on combined fire ROS (i.e. ROS incorporating main fire and merged spot fires). During experiments conducted on a flat fuel bed, spot fires (whether 1 or 2) had only a small influence on combined ROS. Slowest combined ROS was recorded when a hill was present and no spot fires were ignited, because the fires crept very slowly downslope and downwind of the hill. This was up to, depending on measurement interval, 5 times slower than ROS in the flat fuel bed experiments. However, ignition of 1 or 2 spot fires (with hill present) greatly increased combined ROS to similar levels as those recorded in the flat fuel bed experiments (depending on spread interval). The effect was strongest on the head fire, where spot fires merged directly with the main fire, but significant increases in off-centre ROS were also detected. Our findings suggest that under certain topographic conditions, spot fires can allow a fire to overcome the low spread potential of downslopes. Current models may underestimate wildfire ROS and fire arrival time in hilly terrain if the influence of spot fires on ROS is not incorporated into predictions.

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“…The Kilmore East Black Saturday simulations [26] and simulations in the progress of the Waroona and Sir Ivan fires show the potential value of the system. Numerous development steps would be required for operational use, including the inclusion of fuel grids compatible with the AFDRS, variable fuel moisture and the inclusion of smoke transport.…”

Section: Access-firementioning

confidence: 94%

“…The operational atmospheric grids of 1.5 km can be downscaled to 400-100 m, which is an appropriate spatial scale for the simulation of landscape-scale fires. Sensitivity tests run with both ACCESS-Fire [26] and CAWFE [31] showed limited improvement in CFA simulation results when the resolution on the inner nest was varied from 400 m to 100 m.…”

Section: Scalabilitymentioning

confidence: 98%

“…ACCESS-Fire has been developed in Australia and links ACCESS to an empirical fire model. It was developed to study the Black Saturday Kilmore East fire [26], and work with the model has continued through a bushfire and natural hazards CRC project. The fire model interacts with the atmospheric model via sensible heat and latent heat fluxes passed through the land-surface scheme.…”

Section: The Physical and Empirical Coupled Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lessons Learned from Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Research and Implications for Operational Fire Prediction and Meteorological Products Provided by the Bureau of Meteorology to Australian Fire Agencies

2020

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Coupled fire-atmosphere models are simulators that integrate a fire component and an atmospheric component, with the objective of capturing interactions between the fire and atmosphere. As a fire releases energy in the combustion process, the surrounding atmosphere adjusts in response to the energy fluxes; coupled fire-atmosphere (CFA) models aim to resolve the processes through which these adjustments occur. Several CFA models have been developed internationally, mostly by meteorological institutions and primarily for use as a research tool. Research studies have provided valuable insights into some of the atmospheric processes surrounding a fire. The potential to run CFA models in real time is currently limited due to the intensive computational requirements. In addition, there is a need for systematic verification to establish their accuracy and the appropriate circumstances for their use. The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is responsible for providing relevant and accurate meteorological information to Australian fire agencies to inform decisions for the protection of life and property and to support hazard management activities. The inclusion of temporally and spatially detailed meteorological fields that adjust in response to the energy released by a fire is seen as a component in developing fire prediction systems that capture some of the most impactful fire and weather behavior. The Bureau’s ten-year research and development plan includes a commitment to developing CFA models, with the objective of providing enhanced services to Australian fire agencies. This paper discusses the operational use of fire predictions and simulators, learnings from CFA models and potential future directions for the Bureau in using CFA models to support fire prediction activities.

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Coupled Atmosphere‐Fire Simulations of the Black Saturday Kilmore East Wildfires With the Unified Model

Cited by 16 publications

References 42 publications

Analysis of Variation in Distance, Number, and Distribution of Spotting in Southeast Australian Wildfires

Analysis of Variation in Distance, Number, and Distribution of Spotting in Southeast Australian Wildfires

Experiments on the influence of spot fire and topography interaction on fire rate of spread

Lessons Learned from Coupled Fire-Atmosphere Research and Implications for Operational Fire Prediction and Meteorological Products Provided by the Bureau of Meteorology to Australian Fire Agencies

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