Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasting at short and medium time scales

Pullen, Julie; Allard, Richard A; Seo, Hyodae; Miller, Arthur J.; Chen, Shuyi; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi; Smith, T.; Chu, Philip; Alves, José; Caldeira, Rui

doi:10.1357/002224017823523991

Cited by 28 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 109 publications

(167 reference statements)

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“…4; Lewis et al, 2018b) and tracer advection equations, using the parameterisation of Breivik et al (2015); c. wave-height-dependent ocean surface roughness (Eq. 11; Lewis et al, 2018b), following Rascle et al (2008).…”

Section: Wave-ocean Couplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the development of coupled prediction approaches is increasingly enabling research on the sensitivity of the Earth system to wave impacts (e.g. Pullen et al, 2017). Through ex-change of information between different model components, coupled systems can begin to explicitly represent the feedbacks and interactions that occur across the air-sea interface in nature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?

et al. 2019

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Operational ocean forecasts are typically produced by modelling systems run using a forced mode approach. The evolution of the ocean state is not directly influenced by surface waves, and the ocean dynamics are driven by an external source of meteorological data which are independent of the ocean state. Model coupling provides one approach to increase the extent to which ocean forecast systems can represent the interactions and feedbacks between ocean, waves, and the atmosphere seen in nature. This paper demonstrates the impact of improving how the effect of waves on the momentum exchange across the ocean-atmosphere interface is represented through ocean-wave coupling on the performance of an operational regional ocean prediction system. This study focuses on the eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) Atlantic Margin Model (AMM15) ocean model configuration for the north-west European Shelf (NWS) region.A series of 2-year duration forecast trials of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) north-west European Shelf regional ocean prediction system are analysed. The impact of including ocean-wave feedbacks via dynamic coupling on the simulated ocean is discussed. The main interactions included are the modification of surface stress by wave growth and dissipation, Stokes-Coriolis forcing, and wave-height-dependent ocean surface roughness. Given the relevance to operational forecasting, trials with and without ocean data assimilation are considered.Summary forecast metrics demonstrate that the oceanwave coupled system is a viable evolution for future oper-ational implementation. When results are considered in more depth, wave coupling was found to result in an annual cycle of relatively warmer winter and cooler summer sea surface temperatures for seasonally stratified regions of the NWS. This is driven by enhanced mixing due to waves, and a deepening of the ocean mixed layer during summer. The impact of wave coupling is shown to be reduced within the mixed layer with assimilation of ocean observations. Evaluation of salinity and ocean currents against profile measurements in the German Bight demonstrates improved simulation with wave coupling relative to control simulations. Further, evidence is provided of improvement to simulation of extremes of sea surface height anomalies relative to coastal tide gauges.

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Section: Wave-ocean Couplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?

et al. 2019

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“…This is motivated by a drive from both research and operational applications to 15 develop more wholistic simulations of the environment at high resolution in which the numerous Earth System feedback processes are more explicitly represented (e.g. Shapiro et al, 2010;Pullen et al, 2017a). These systems enable improved understanding of how heat, momentum, freshwater and biogeochemical exchanges affect both marine and atmosphere-land systems.…”

Section: Motivations For Regional Coupled Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system

Lewis¹,

Sanchez²,

Fallmann³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper describes an updated configuration of the regional coupled research system, termed UKC3, developed and evaluated under the UK Environmental Prediction collaboration. This represents a further step towards a vision of simulating the numerous interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land using more integrated regional coupled prediction systems at km-scale resolution. The UKC3 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean surface waves (WAVEWATCH III), coupled together using OASIS3-MCT libraries. The major update introduced since the UKC2 configuration is an explicit representation of wave processes in the ocean and their feedbacks through wave-to-ocean coupling. Ocean model results demonstrate that wave coupling, in particular representing the wave modified surface drag, has a small but positive improvement on the agreement between simulated sea surface temperatures and in situ observations, relative to simulations without wave feedbacks. Other incremental developments to the coupled modelling capability introduced since the UKC2 configuration are also detailed. Coupled regional prediction systems are of interest for applications across a range of timescales, from hours to decades ahead. The first results of simulations run over extended periods, covering four experiments each of order one month in duration are therefore analysed and discussed in the context of further characterising the potential benefits of coupled prediction on forecast skill, and on the stability of such systems over longer time periods. Results across atmosphere, ocean and wave components are shown to be of at least comparable skill to the equivalent uncoupled control simulations, with notable improvements demonstrated in surface temperature and wave state predictions in some near-coastal regions, and in wind speeds over the sea.

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“…The model is a free-surface tridimensional regional ocean model that uses terrainfollowing, vertical-sigma coordinate as described in Shchepetkin and McWilliams [2005]. The model has been widely used for many applications such as ocean circulation forecast [Haidvogel et al 2008], biophysical modeling [Dias et al, 2014;D'agostini et al, 2015], biogeochemical modeling [Arruda et al, 2015] and for air-sea interaction studies [Putrasahan et al, 2013a[Putrasahan et al, ,2013bSeo et al, 2016;Miller et al, 2017;Pullen et al, 2017].…”

Section: Model Characteristics and Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional modeling of the water masses and circulation annual variability at the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf

Mendonça

Souza

Aseff

et al. 2017

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

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The Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS) is one of the more productive areas for fisheries in Brazilian waters. The water masses and the dynamical processes of the region present a very seasonal behavior that imprint strong effects in the ecosystem and the weather of the area and its vicinity. This paper makes use of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for studying the water mass distribution and circulation variability in the SBCS during the year of 2012. Model outputs were compared to in situ, historical observations and to satellite data. The model was able to reproduce the main thermohaline characteristics of the waters dominating the SBCS and the adjacent region. The mixing between the Subantarctic Shelf Water and the Subtropical Shelf Water, known as the Subtropical Shelf Front (STSF), presented a clear seasonal change in volume. As a consequence of the mixing and of the seasonal oscillation of the STSF position, the stability of the water column inside the SBCS also changes seasonally. Current velocities and associated transports estimated for the Brazil Current (BC) and for the Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) agree with previous measurements and estimates, stressing the fact that the opposite flow of the BCC occurring during winter in the study region is about 2 orders of magnitude smaller than that of the BC. Seasonal maps of simulated Mean Kinetic Energy and Eddy Kinetic Energy demonstrate the known behavior of the BC and stressed the importance of the mean coastal flow off Argentina throughout the year.

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Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasting at short and medium time scales

Cited by 28 publications

References 109 publications

Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?

Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf?

The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system

Regional modeling of the water masses and circulation annual variability at the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf

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