Coupling a Mesoscale Atmospheric Model with a Distributed Hydrological Model Applied to a Watershed in Southeast Brazil

Kruk, Nadiane Smaha; Vendrame, Íria Fernandes; Chou, Sin Chan

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000606

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…precipitation, temperature and other meteorological factors) after downscaling drive hydrological models to simulate the hydrological variables such as evapotranspiration and runoff. This one-way coupling method is easy to operate and has been widely used (Wilby and Wigley, 2000;Kruk et al, 2013;Xu et al, 2015). However, one-way coupling does not result in good simulation accuracy for hydrological processes within a certain basin because it lacks the feedback of hydrology with atmosphere.…”

Section: Development Of Atmosphere-hydrology Simulations From One-waymentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The terrestrial hydrological process is an essential but weak link in global/regional climate models. In this paper, the development status, research hotspots and trends in coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations are identified through a bibliometric analysis, and the challenges and opportunities in this field are reviewed and summarized. Most climate models adopt the one-dimensional (vertical) land surface parameterization, which does not include a detailed description of basin-scale hydrological processes, particularly the effects of human activities on the underlying surfaces. To understand the interaction mechanism between hydrological processes and climate change, a large number of studies focused on the climate feedback effects of hydrological processes at different spatio-temporal scales, mainly through the coupling of hydrological and climate models. The improvement of the parameterization of hydrological process and the development of large-scale hydrological model in land surface process model lay a foundation for terrestrial hydrological-climate coupling simulation, based on which, the study of terrestrial hydrological-climate coupling is evolving from the traditional unidirectional coupling research to the two-way coupling study of "climate-hydrology" feedback. However, studies of fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations (also called atmosphere-hydrology two-way coupling) are far from mature. The main challenges associated with these studies are: improving the potential mismatch in hydrological models and climate models; improving the stability of coupled systems; developing an effective scale conversion scheme; perfecting the parameterization scheme; evaluating parameter uncertainties; developing effective methodology for model parameter transplanting; and improving the applicability of models and high/super-resolution simulation. Solving these problems and improving simulation accuracy are directions for future hydro-climate coupling simulation research.

show abstract

Section: Development Of Atmosphere-hydrology Simulations From One-waymentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Several studies demonstrated that RCMs significantly improve rainfall estimates (ALVES; CAMPOS; SERVAIN, 2012;BLOCK et al, 2009;BRAGA et al, 2013;KRUK;VENDRAME;CHOU, 2013;KWON et al, 2012; OLIVEIRA; PEDROLLO; CASTRO, 2015a, 2015b; PEREIRA; MORAES; UVO, 2014). That's also valid when RCM is coupled inline with a hydrological model (PEREIRA; MORAES; UVO, 2014).…”

Section: Studies Addressing 'Model Evaluation'mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When combined with RCM outputs, Braga et al (2013) and Oliveira, Pedrollo and Castro (2015a) demonstrated advantages in applying DCF for monthly scale. On the other hand, when intended for high resolution studies, Kruk, Vendrame and Chou (2013) concluded that the technique is useless. Oliveira, Pedrollo and Castro (2015a) shows no evidence of the superiority of one bias correction technique over the others.…”

Section: Studies Addressing 'Model Evaluation'mentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating climate models into hydrological modelling: What’s going on in Brazil?

Amorim

Chaffe

2019

RBRH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Studies integrating climate modelling output into hydrological modelling have grown substantially in the last two decades worldwide; however, there has not been a systematic review about those applications in the Brazilian territory. The aim of this study is to identify how the scientific community has been dealing with the topic in Brazil. The study is based on a systematic review of available peer-reviewed literature. We identify regions and socioeconomic sectors of interest and propose a method to evaluate the methodological consistency of the studies with the current state-of-the-art. The review shows that the topic has grown substantially in this decade, reaching 63 documents until 2018. The sectors under highest concern are the hydropower and the drinking water supply. The Paraná and Atlântico Nordeste Oriental hydrographic regions received great attention; whereas the Atlântico Sudeste did not. In terms of methodology, the use of multi-model ensemble leaves room for improvement. The results suggest a lack of human resources and access to computational infrastructure to handle climate data. Given the current challenges that Brazilian science is facing, we suggest the synchronization of efforts among research institutions. This systematic review provides information to help guiding decision makers to improve the topic in Brazil.

show abstract

“…BENOIT et al, 2003;LEMOIGNE;NOILHAN, 2004;COLLISCHONN et al, 2005;VERBUNT et al, 2006;KRUK;VENDRAME;CHOU, 2013). This can be explained by the fact that precipitation is one of the most difficult variables to be forecasted, since it is very sensitive to both initial state of the atmosphere and representation of physical processes in numerical weather models (STENSRUD; BAO;WARNER, 2000;GOLDING, 2000;EBERT, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble flood forecasting based on operational forecasts of the regional Eta EPS in the Taquari-Antas basin

Siqueira

Collischonn

Fan

et al. 2016

RBRH

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) play an important role on operational flood forecasting. Unlike in deterministic approach, which relies on a single prediction of future river flows, these systems can represent the forecast uncertainty and provide a better detection of extreme hydro-meteorological events. In this context, the present study aimed to assess both the quality of ensemble flood forecasts on Taquari-Antas basin and its potential to provide additional information to a local Flood Alert System. The hydrological model MGB-IPH was coupled to the high-resolution meteorological EPS Eta model with five members of different parameterization schemes and boundary conditions, as well as to the deterministic version of Eta regional model. On a single event evaluation, the peak discharge was reasonable well predicted by at least one ensemble member, in nearly all forecasts, with a good prediction of the flood timing for the considered lead times. In a comparison with deterministic forecasts, the ensemble ones showed higher accuracy and higher probability of detection (POD) for the reference thresholds, preserving false alarm rates at reasonably low levels. An overall tendency of underestimation was also identified, with most observations falling between the higher ranks of the ensemble. Furthermore, the combination of previous forecasts (t-12h) with the recent ones leads to a slight increase of ensemble spread and POD, despite the performance reduction in terms of accuracy and bias for the ensemble mean. Results suggest that there is a benefit in having hydrological ensemble forecasts obtained from the high resolution EPS Eta model, which can be used as a complementary information to a local Flood Alert System supporting pre-alert issues and Civil Defense internal planning actions. Keywords: Flood forecasting; Ensemble forecasting; Eta model, MGB-IPH. RESUMOA previsão hidrológica por conjunto tem sido reconhecida como uma ferramenta essencial em diversos sistemas operacionais de previsão de cheias. Diferentemente da abordagem determinística, que disponibiliza apenas uma previsão pontual, a previsão por conjunto permite a representação das incertezas associadas e consequentemente a melhoria na detecção de eventos extremos de cheia. Neste contexto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo verificar a qualidade de previsões hidrológicas por conjunto, em curto prazo, na bacia do rio Taquari-Antas/RS, e o seu potencial para fornecer informação adicional a um sistema de alerta. Para tanto, foi utilizado o modelo hidrológico MGB-IPH acoplado ao EPS Regional Eta de alta resolução, com 5 membros de diferentes parametrizações e condições de contorno, além da previsão determinística do Modelo Regional Eta. Durante a avaliação de eventos singulares recentemente ocorridos na bacia, a vazão máxima foi relativamente bem prevista por pelo menos 1 membro em quase todas as previsões realizadas, inclusive com instante de pico próximo ao observado para as antecedências consideradas. Em uma comparação com previsões ...

show abstract

Coupling a Mesoscale Atmospheric Model with a Distributed Hydrological Model Applied to a Watershed in Southeast Brazil

Cited by 7 publications

References 24 publications

A review of fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations

A review of fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations

Integrating climate models into hydrological modelling: What’s going on in Brazil?

Ensemble flood forecasting based on operational forecasts of the regional Eta EPS in the Taquari-Antas basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About