This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
ARTICLE HISTORY
In this paper we synthesize the special sessions of the XXIII Brazilian Water Resources Symposium 2019 in order to understand the major advances and challenges in the water sciences in Brazil. We analyzed more than 250 papers and presentations of 16 special sessions covering topics of Climate Variability and Change, Disasters, Modeling, Large Scale Hydrology, Remote Sensing, Education, and Water Resources Management. This exercise highlighted the unique diversity of natural and human water features in Brazil, that offers a great opportunity for understanding coupled hydrological and societal systems. Most contributions were related to methods and the quantification of water phenomena, therefore, there is a clear necessity for fostering more research on phenomena comprehension. There is a vast network of co-authorship among institutions but mostly from academia and with some degree of regional fragmentation. The ABRhidro community now has the challenge to enhance its collaboration network, the culture of synthesis analysis, and to build a common agenda for water resources research. It is also time for us to be aligned with the international water science community and to use our experiences to actively contribute to the tackling of global water issues.
Climate model precipitation is the foremost input for hydrological models in climate change risk assessment. However, some aspects of precipitation (e.g., frequency, seasonality, and extremes) are usually not well represented by climate models, especially at the regional scale and in the tropics. In this study, we use a set of well‐established metrics to evaluate the marginal, temporal, and spatial aspects of CMIP5 and CMIP6 precipitation in Southern Brazil. This region is in the transition between tropical and subtropical climates with diverse rainfall generation mechanisms and complex topography. We compare the multi‐model‐ensemble mean (MME) and a constrained ensemble (CE) of CMIP5 and CMIP6 against a high‐resolution precipitation data grid. The constrained ensemble is obtained using a weighting approach that minimizes the difference between the simulated and observed cumulative distribution functions. We find that CMIP6 outperforms CMIP5 for most metrics, especially in the simulation of the seasonal cycle and the spatial distribution of precipitation. Simulated precipitation is more seasonal and more spatially dependent than the observations, with a dry bias characterized by lower precipitation amounts and higher consecutive dry days. Our analysis suggests that the models are not able to reproduce the transition between tropical and subtropical climates in this region as well as the passage of frontal systems. Future studies using CMIP6 should focus on those regional mechanisms of precipitation variability.
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