Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources

Amorim, Pablo Borges de; Chaffe, Pedro B.

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02430-9

Cited by 21 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…RCMs may not precisely reproduce the observed values, with deviations in both magnitude and time, especially the peak flows and baseflow. The physical structure of the RCMs, parametrizations, downscaling technique, RCPs, and sensitivity of the runoff to climate variables are the primary sources of uncertainties [24,51,52]. Besides, uncertainties regarding the hydrological model calibration may provoke differences between observed and simulated hydrographs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of the Largest Hydropower Plant Reservoir in Southeast Brazil

Mello

Vieira

Guzmán

et al. 2021

Water

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Approximately 70% of all the electric energy produced in Brazil comes from hydropower plants. In this context, the Grande River Basin (GRB) stands out in Brazil. Some studies have been carried out to investigate the impacts of climate change in tropical regions to support water resources’ management and planning. This study aims to project the changes in the runoff that feed the Furnas Hydropower Plant (FHP) reservoir (GRB-Furnas basin), the largest and most important facility in Southeast Brazil. The lavras simulation of hydrology model (LASH) was used to project the impacts on runoff and hydrological droughts over the century in GRB-Furnas. The regional climate models (RCMs) Eta-HadGEM-ES, Eta-MIROC5, and Eta-CanESM2 forced the LASH model from 2007 to 2099, taking the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. LASH simulated the runoff adequately for the baseline period (1961–2005) using the RCMs’ outputs. A noticeable reduction in precipitation was identified in the wet season, especially in the 2007–2040 period for RCP4.5 and in the 2071–2099 period for RCP8.5. As a result, a significant reduction in the runoff, mainly in the baseflow, and an increase in droughts’ severity were projected throughout the XXI Century, which may compromise the water security to the FHP reservoir.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of the Largest Hydropower Plant Reservoir in Southeast Brazil

Mello

Vieira

Guzmán

et al. 2021

Water

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“…Although globally the impact of climate change on water resources is undeniable, we still need to better understand how these changes occur at the regional and local levels (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014). In Brazil, the negative consequences for public supply, agriculture, and hydroelectric production are already a reality (Agência Nacional de Águas, 2019a) and may intensify in the future (Borges & Chaffe, 2019). Under this challenge, this session brings scientific evidence on changes in observed streamflow and water demand, as well as estimates of future changes in the hydrological regime and extreme events, and also invites approaches to enhance the adaptation of water resources in Brazil.…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Change On Water Resources In Brazilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances and challenges in the water sciences in Brazil: a community synthesis of the XXIII Brazilian Water Resources Symposium

Paiva

Chaffe

Anache

et al. 2020

RBRH

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In this paper we synthesize the special sessions of the XXIII Brazilian Water Resources Symposium 2019 in order to understand the major advances and challenges in the water sciences in Brazil. We analyzed more than 250 papers and presentations of 16 special sessions covering topics of Climate Variability and Change, Disasters, Modeling, Large Scale Hydrology, Remote Sensing, Education, and Water Resources Management. This exercise highlighted the unique diversity of natural and human water features in Brazil, that offers a great opportunity for understanding coupled hydrological and societal systems. Most contributions were related to methods and the quantification of water phenomena, therefore, there is a clear necessity for fostering more research on phenomena comprehension. There is a vast network of co-authorship among institutions but mostly from academia and with some degree of regional fragmentation. The ABRhidro community now has the challenge to enhance its collaboration network, the culture of synthesis analysis, and to build a common agenda for water resources research. It is also time for us to be aligned with the international water science community and to use our experiences to actively contribute to the tackling of global water issues.

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“…Nevertheless, there is a substantial consensus in the literature about potential change in the availability of water resources in Brazil, such as changes into a drier hydrological regime. Here, we extend the work of Borges and Chaffe (2019) with a review of the current state-of-the-practice of the integration of climate model outputs into hydrological models in Brazil. The study is based on a systematic review of all available peer-reviewed literature classified by regions and socioeconomic sectors of interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Integrating climate models into hydrological modelling: What’s going on in Brazil?

Amorim

Chaffe

2019

RBRH

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Studies integrating climate modelling output into hydrological modelling have grown substantially in the last two decades worldwide; however, there has not been a systematic review about those applications in the Brazilian territory. The aim of this study is to identify how the scientific community has been dealing with the topic in Brazil. The study is based on a systematic review of available peer-reviewed literature. We identify regions and socioeconomic sectors of interest and propose a method to evaluate the methodological consistency of the studies with the current state-of-the-art. The review shows that the topic has grown substantially in this decade, reaching 63 documents until 2018. The sectors under highest concern are the hydropower and the drinking water supply. The Paraná and Atlântico Nordeste Oriental hydrographic regions received great attention; whereas the Atlântico Sudeste did not. In terms of methodology, the use of multi-model ensemble leaves room for improvement. The results suggest a lack of human resources and access to computational infrastructure to handle climate data. Given the current challenges that Brazilian science is facing, we suggest the synchronization of efforts among research institutions. This systematic review provides information to help guiding decision makers to improve the topic in Brazil.

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Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources

Cited by 21 publications

References 42 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of the Largest Hydropower Plant Reservoir in Southeast Brazil

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of the Largest Hydropower Plant Reservoir in Southeast Brazil

Advances and challenges in the water sciences in Brazil: a community synthesis of the XXIII Brazilian Water Resources Symposium

Integrating climate models into hydrological modelling: What’s going on in Brazil?

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