Coupling an Agent-Based Model with a Mathematical Model of Rift Valley Fever for Studying the Impact of Animal Migrations on the Rift Valley Fever Transmission

Paul, Python Ndekou Tandong; Ndiaye, Papa Ibnou; Bah, Alassane; Dione, Déthié; Ndione, Jacques André

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-58802-1_34

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Few models considered movement restriction as a control method. A reduction of movements led to a decrease in disease spatial spread [55] and in incidence [65], and can help to eradicate the disease [58]. In Uganda, Sekamatte et al (2019) [56] concluded that during periods of low mosquito abundance, movement restrictions led to a significant reduction in incidence.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The most common primary scientific objective of models was to understand epidemiological processes, in all model categories (from 72% of applied models to 79% of grey models, Table 1, Figure 3). Although in 11 cases, those models also aimed to anticipate or control outbreaks in a secondary part [32,47,48,[55][56][57][58]60,65,68,70]. In addition, in 30% of cases, model development in itself seemed to be a leading objective of the study.…”

Section: Objective Of the Modeling Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The importance of animal movements in RVF spread and persistence is another key question explored by included studies. Theoretical models shows that local and distance spread of the virus are positively correlated to animal movement speed and flow size [52,58], but complex relationships exist in case of heterogeneous movements and livestock death rates [75]. Spatial spread can also be limited by physical barriers to livestock migration [35].…”

Section: Key Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission dynamics: A systematic review

Cecilia

Drouin

Métras

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis which has been reported across Africa including the northernmost edge, South West Indian Ocean islands, and the Arabian Peninsula. The virus is responsible for high abortion rates and mortality in young ruminants, with economic impacts in affected countries. To this day, RVF epidemiological mechanisms are not fully understood, due to the multiplicity of implicated vertebrate hosts, vectors and ecosystems. In this context, mathematical models are useful tools to develop our understanding of complex systems, and mechanistic models are particularly suited to data-scarce settings. In this work, we performed a systematic review of mechanistic models studying RVF, to explore their diversity and their contribution to the understanding of this disease epidemiology. Researching Pubmed and Scopus databases (October 2021), we eventually selected 48 papers, which needed to provide a clear description of a mechanistic model with numerical application to RVF. We categorized models as theoretical, applied or grey, according to their will to represent a specific geographical context and their use of data to fulfill this intention. We discussed their contributions to the understanding of RVF epidemiology, and highlighted that theoretical and applied models can use different tools to meet common objectives. Through the examination of model features, we identified research questions left unexplored across scales, along with a substantial lack of justification when choosing a functional form for the force of infection. Overall, we showed a great diversity in RVF models, leading to substantial progress in our comprehension of epidemiological mechanisms. To go further, data gaps must be fulfilled, and modelers need to go the extra mile regarding transparency.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Objective Of the Modeling Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Key Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission dynamics: A systematic review

Cecilia

Drouin

Métras

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission: A systematic review

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis which has been reported across Africa including the northernmost edge, South West Indian Ocean islands, and the Arabian Peninsula. The virus is responsible for high abortion rates and mortality in young ruminants, with economic impacts in affected countries. To date, RVF epidemiological mechanisms are not fully understood, due to the multiplicity of implicated vertebrate hosts, vectors, and ecosystems. In this context, mathematical models are useful tools to develop our understanding of complex systems, and mechanistic models are particularly suited to data-scarce settings. Here, we performed a systematic review of mechanistic models studying RVF, to explore their diversity and their contribution to the understanding of this disease epidemiology. Researching Pubmed and Scopus databases (October 2021), we eventually selected 48 papers, presenting overall 49 different models with numerical application to RVF. We categorized models as theoretical, applied, or grey, depending on whether they represented a specific geographical context or not, and whether they relied on an extensive use of data. We discussed their contributions to the understanding of RVF epidemiology, and highlighted that theoretical and applied models are used differently yet meet common objectives. Through the examination of model features, we identified research questions left unexplored across scales, such as the role of animal mobility, as well as the relative contributions of host and vector species to transmission. Importantly, we noted a substantial lack of justification when choosing a functional form for the force of infection. Overall, we showed a great diversity in RVF models, leading to important progress in our comprehension of epidemiological mechanisms. To go further, data gaps must be filled, and modelers need to improve their code accessibility.

show abstract

Coupling an Agent-Based Model with a Mathematical Model of Rift Valley Fever for Studying the Impact of Animal Migrations on the Rift Valley Fever Transmission

Cited by 2 publications

References 24 publications

Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission dynamics: A systematic review

Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission dynamics: A systematic review

Mechanistic models of Rift Valley fever virus transmission: A systematic review

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