Covariates for nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China

Su, Chengjia; Chen, Xiaohong

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.06.017

Cited by 41 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The selected atmospheric circulation indices included Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), South Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which were available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/), and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM), South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM), which were obtained from (http://ljp.gcess.cn/dct/page/1). The PDO, SOI, NAO, AO, EASM, SASM and SCSSM were found to have definite effects on the PRB (Zhao et al, 2014; Huang et al, 2017; Su and Chen, 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal variability in extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China from 1960 to 2018

Zhou

Zhao

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme precipitation events are an increasingly important issue, and their changing trends vary by geographical region. In this study, 12 extreme precipitation indices (EPI) were selected to analyse the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation, explore the relationships between EPI and annual total precipitation (ATP) and elevation in the Pearl River Basin from 1960 to 2018, and investigate the persistence of extreme precipitation in the future. The results showed that the regionally averaged ATP insignificantly decreased at a rate of 27.27 mm/decade, while the maximum 1‐day precipitation and maximum 5‐day precipitation exhibited insignificantly increased trends, simple daily intensity index significantly increased at a rate of 0.18 mm/day per decade, whereas wet days, heavy precipitation days and consecutive dry days significantly decreased from 1960 to 2018. Trends in the EPI in four seasons showed large differences, most of the EPI in spring were decreased, while increased in winter. Most EPI in the western regions showed decreasing trends, whereas in the southeastern regions exhibited positive trends. The large spatial variability of EPI is mainly due to the impacts of terrain and water vapour sources. The variations in the extreme precipitation are closely related to the atmospheric circulation index, especially for the East Asian Summer Monsoon. All indices except consecutive dry days exhibited significant positive correlations with ATP. All indices except consecutive dry days had negative correlations with elevation, and extreme precipitation events mainly occurred in lower elevation regions. All the EPI had long‐range correlations based on R/S analysis (H > 0.5), thereby indicating that the EPI will maintain their current trends in the future. This research will provide support for water resource management and scientific adaptation, mitigation and response to climate anomalies.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal variability in extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China from 1960 to 2018

Zhou

Zhao

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Several authors have used with succeed large-scale climatic indices as covariates for extreme precipitation (e.g. Katz et al, 2002;El Adlouni et al 2007;Gao et al 2016;Su and Chen 2019) and extreme floods (e.g. Lopez and Frances 2013; Machado et al 2015).…”

Section: Statistical Alternatives For Estimating Pmp: Probabilistic and Stochastic Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review

Salas

Anderson²,

Papalexiou

et al. 2020

J. Hydrol. Eng.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A state-of-the-art review on the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) as it relates to climate variability and change is presented. The review consists of an examination of the current practice and the various developments published in literature. The focus is on relevant research where the effect of climate dynamics on the PMP are discussed as well as statistical methods developed for estimating very large extreme precipitation including the PMP. Often confusion arises on the interpretation of extreme events without considering the effect of low frequency components of the climate system, their probabilistic nature that may be described by heavy-tail models, and the effect of the uncertainty of several factors determining them, such as atmospheric moisture, its transport into storms, wind, and their future changes. The review examines these issues as well as the underlying historical and proxy data. In addition, we summarize the procedures and guidelines established by some countries (e.g. USA, Australia, Canada, UK, EU, and others), states (e.g. California, Quebec), and the current manual of the World Meteorological Organization for estimating the PMP. In doing so, we paid attention whether the current guidelines and research published literature take into consideration the effects of the variability and change of climatic processes and the underlying uncertainties.

show abstract

“…A linear dependence model was sufficient for this purpose, as the significance of each covariate could be tested through this model for the AMP time series in each observation site. The linear dependence of the parameters on the covariates has been considered in several studies on nonstationary modeling of extreme values of hydrometeorological variables (J. S. Cheng and Xiao, 2019;Katz, 2013;Katz et al, 2002;Mondal & Mujumdar, 2015;Sillmann et al, 2011;X. B. Zhang et al, 2010).…”

Section: Modeling and Spatial Distribution Of The Best Nonstationary mentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of the Northeast Cold Vortex Index and Multiscale Synergistic Indices to Extreme Precipitation Over Northeast China

Meng

Liu

et al. 2021

Earth and Space Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With global warming, the increasing number and intensity of extreme precipitation events are a global trend. The IPCC AR5 (2012) points out that the global average temperature has increased by 0.12°C every 10 years in the past 60 years (1951-2012). The temperature in Northeast China has increased by 1.75-2.5°C and is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in the world (IPCC, 2012; Qin and Stocker, 2014). Northeast China is the most important area for food production in China and is also an important base for national security. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the mechanism of the formation of extreme precipitation in Northeast China. Extreme value theory (EVT) can successfully characterize climatic and hydrological extremes and has been widely used in meteorology and hydrology (

show abstract

Covariates for nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China

Cited by 41 publications

References 53 publications

Spatial and temporal variability in extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China from 1960 to 2018

Spatial and temporal variability in extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China from 1960 to 2018

PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review

Contribution of the Northeast Cold Vortex Index and Multiscale Synergistic Indices to Extreme Precipitation Over Northeast China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About