COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: Predicted Uptake in the Netherlands Based on a Discrete Choice Experiment (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND Smartphone-based contact-tracing apps can contribute to significantly reducing COVID-19 transmission rates and thereby support countries emerging from lockdowns as restrictions are gradually eased. OBJECTIVE The primary objective of our study was to determine the potential uptake of a contact-tracing app in the Dutch population, depending on the characteristics of the app. METHODS A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted in a nationally representative sample of 900 Dutch respondents. Simulated maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate population average and individual-level preferences using a mixed logit (MIXL) model specification. Individual-level uptake probabilities were calculated based on the individual-level preference estimates and subsequently aggregated into sample as well as subgroup-specific contact-tracing app adoption rates. RESULTS The predicted app adoption rates ranged from 59.3% to 65.7% for the worst and best possible tracing app, respectively. The most realistic contact-tracing app had a predicted adoption of 64.1%. The predicted adoption rates strongly varied by age group. For example, the adoption rates of the most realistic app ranged from 45.6% to 79.4% for people in the oldest and youngest age groups (i.e. 75+ vs. 15-34 years old), respectively. Educational attainment, the presence of serious underlying health conditions, and the respondents’ stance on COVID-19 infection risks were also correlated with the predicted adoption rates, but to a lesser extent. CONCLUSIONS A secure and privacy-respecting contact-tracing app with the most realistic characteristics can obtain an adoption rate as high as 64% in the Netherlands. This exceeds the target uptake of 60% that has been formulated by the Dutch government. The main challenge will be to increase the uptake among the elderly, who are least inclined to install and use a COVID-19 contact-tracing app.

Diabolical dilemmas of COVID-19: An empirical study into Dutch society’s trade-offs between health impacts and other effects of the lockdown

“…To be sure, the main contribution of this paper is not a methodological one: the use of choice experiments to study citizens’ preferences and trade-offs involving fatalities and injuries has a long tradition in health economics [ 3 ], traffic safety analysis [ 4 ] and environmental and climate change economics [ 5 ]. More related to the topic of our study, choice experiments have been deployed for measuring preferences for a COVID-19 contact tracing app in the Netherlands [ 6 , 7 ], in the United Kingdom [ 8 ] and in the United States (e.g. [ 9 ]); as well as to measure preferences for attributes of a COVID-19 vaccine among Australian citizens [ 10 ].…”

The French Covid-19 contact tracing app: knowledge, attitudes, beliefs and practices of students in the health domain

“…Finally, 900 Dutch adults (Jonker et al, 2020) were questioned on their will to adopt a hypothetical contact tracing app and the predicted adoption was of 64.1%. This rate strongly varied by age group: the adoption rates of the app ranged from 45.6% to 79.4% for people in the oldest and youngest age groups (i.e., ≥75 years vs 15-34 years), respectively.…”

“…This was one of the first studies reporting data on students’ representations and opinions about a contact tracing app in a pandemic context. Previous studies have explored the intention of downloading this type of apps as a general idea, but were not based on a developed and currently diffused app (Altmann et al, 2020; Jonker et al, 2020; Kaspar, 2020; Walrave et al, 2020). Reasons for downloading and using the app were explored in depth to inform future steps to increase its diffusion.…”

The Catalytic Role of Covid-19 Pandemic in the Paradigm Shift in the Cross-Border University Education: The Case of Uganda

“…Arising from this literature review section and more specifically, Varghese, (2017); Priti (2019) and Jonker et al, (2020), the following conceptual framework (Figure 1) which conceptualizes the paradigm shift was derived.…”