COVID-19 Doesn't Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs: The Effect of Local Outbreaks in Korea

Abstract

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

“…It is also useful to contrast our results with the polar case of South Korea, without lockdowns. Aum et al [24] found that a one-per-thousand increase in the infection rate was associated with an employment loss of 2-3%. Extrapolating this result to the United States and the United Kingdom, which had large-scale lockdowns, Aum et al [24] argue that only half of the 5-6% drop in job losses in these Western economies might be attributable to lockdowns.…”

“…There is still limited empirical evidence of the effects of interventions to prevent viral transmission [1,17]; most impact has been estimated using mathematical models [16,18,19]. The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed an enormous global burden, with about 30 million cases and one million deaths reported so far [20], and substantial social and economic costs from epidemic control measures [21][22][23][24][25][26][27].…”

“…Some research suggests that lockdowns explain a small share of the total economic activity decline [22,[30][31][32]. Others [24,33,34] have found that lockdowns play a relevant role in explaining the drop in economic activity. We test these effects in a setting were localized lockdowns were implemented intermittently at different administrative levels, thus allowing us to identify the impact of localized lockdowns on economic activity.…”

COVID-19 and the Demand for Online Food Shopping Services: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

“…Estimating the extent of a permanent shift to online food shopping after the development of a COVID-19 vaccine is more difficult. 14 One study of the Korean experience found that employment losses caused by local outbreaks in regions without stay-at-home and business restrictions were concentrated in the accommodation/food service industry, among several others (Aum, Lee and Shin 2020). By implication, demand for FAFH in Taiwan will presumably recover after the threat of COVID-19 diminishes.…”

Shaping the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada

“…Indeed, better control of COVID-19 epidemics seems to be the key to minimizing economic damage. 8 Both SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 are understood far better now than when the virus was first identified. Certain public health interventions have been shown to effectively control transmission.…”