COVID-19 impact on job losses in Portugal: who are the hardest-hit?

Abstract

Purpose The COVID-19 pandemic caused job losses to rise dramatically. Herein, the purpose of the article is to identify which personal and job characteristics make individuals more vulnerable or more resilient to COVID-19 unemployment in Portugal and thus to help policymakers, organizations and individuals themselves, in creating mechanisms to avoid unemployment within this new context.Design/methodology/approach Using extensive personal and job-related data on the complete population of newly unemployed in Portugal over several months after the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, a logit model is estimated to identify the characteristics that make workers more resilient or more vulnerable to COVID-19 unemployment, in comparison with the pre-crisis period.Findings The COVID-19 crisis is shown to be disruptive by changing the unemployment structure, increasing socioeconomic inequalities and weakening traditional mechanisms of employment protection. Additionally, the authors identify a higher vulnerability of low-skilled individuals and of those in occupations with low working-from-home feasibility and/or from non-essential sectors (particularly tourism).Practical implications Policy indications are given aiming to protect the most vulnerable individuals, sectors and regions in Portugal, in this new and unprecedented context.Originality/value A seven-month period following the emergence of the pandemic is considered, which allows investigating both the immediate and the medium-term effects of the COVID-19 crisis on job losses. Additionally, by matching data from three different sources, an extensive set of multilevel variables is considered, some of them new in the literature.

Regional Heterogeneity in the Individual Unemployment Vulnerability After COVID-19 Outset

“…Workers in occupations with higher WFH feasibility are expected to be less vulnerable to COVID-19, considering the particular features of this crisis. The negative coefficient of WFH feasibility confirms this conclusion and completely agrees with previous literature (e.g., Adams-Prassl et al 2020; Fana, Pérez, and Fernández-Macías 2020; Lopes, and Carreira, 2022; Sanchez et al, 2020). Considering the nature of this pandemic, we also analyze occupations’ requirement to be performed in proximity to other people.…”

“…However, occupations differ greatly regarding the share of tasks performed from a distance (i.e., WFH feasibility). Recently, Adams-Prassl et al (2020), Beland, Brodeur, and Wright (2020), Fana, Pérez, and Fernández-Macías (2020), Lopes and Carreira (2022), and Sanchez et al (2020) have included this factor in their analysis, concluding that occupations with a higher WFH feasibility are positively associated with the individual’s ability to avoid unemployment. Of course, such causality must control individual factors usually related to telework feasibility, such as higher skills or qualification requirements.…”

Remote work and the COVID-19 pandemic: An artificial intelligence-based topic modeling and a future agenda

“…More specifically, job losses have been high for jobs that cannot be performed remotely ( Zimpelmann et al, 2021 ). Therefore, individuals who work in low-skilled, non-essential jobs or occupations that cannot be performed from home are at higher risk of having their employment terminated ( Adams-Prassl et al, 2020 , Lopes and Carreira, 2021 , Bradley et al, 2021 ). Some studies show that the aforementioned issues relate to the level of available technological infrastructure needed to perform a job remotely.…”

“…This sub-stream of literature needs a thorough understanding of the role that governments, public institutions, organizations, and individuals play in ensuring labor markets remain resilient during crises. For example, governments could create new positions while ensuring the performance of current jobs ( Adams-Prassl et al, 2020 , Lopes and Carreira, 2021 , Bradley et al, 2021 ) by providing appropriate digital infrastructure and formulating supportive policies (Holgersen et al, 2021). Governments and their associated public institutions are also vital for newer placements or the re-skilling of many workers who have lost their jobs over the widespread transition to remote work.…”

Quiet Quitting: Causes, Consequences And Suggestions

“…Ultimately, all these developments created an economic slowdown in businesses, reducing the supply of goods and services and leading to huge losses in many businesses' revenues (Bloom, Fletcher, & Yeh, 2021). This loss of income in businesses caused many employees to lose their working hours during and after the pandemic, and some lost their jobs (Lopes & Carreira, 2022). Although many restrictions and remote working business models for the Covid-19 have disappeared, unfortunately, the economic effects smartofjournal.com / editorsmartjournal@gmail.com / Open Access Refereed / E-Journal / Refereed / Indexed…”