COVID-19 in Chile: The usefulness of simple epidemic models in practice

Abstract

Objectives The purpose of this article is to describe and develop the predictive value of three models during the COVID-19 epidemic in Chile, providing knowledge for decision-making in health. Methods We developed three models during the epidemic: a discrete model to predict the maximum burden on the health system in a short time frame—a basic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) model with discrete equations; a stochastic SEIR model with the Monte Carlo method; and a Gompertz-type model for metropolitan city of Santiago. Results The maximum potential burden model has been useful throughout the monitoring of the epidemic, providing an upper bound for the number of cases, intensive care unit occupancy, and deaths. Deterministic and stochastic SEIR models were very useful in predicting the rise of cases and the peak and onset of case decline; however, they lost utility in the current situation due to the asynchronous recruitment of cases in the regions and the persistence of a strong endemic. The Gompertz model had a better fit in the decline since it best captures the epidemic curve’s asymmetry in Santiago. Conclusions The models have shown great utility in monitoring the epidemic in Chile, with different objectives in different epidemic stages. They have complemented empirical indicators such as reported cases, fatality, deaths, and others, making it possible to predict situations of interest and visualization of the short and long-term local behavior of this pandemic.

El punto de remisión de una epidemia localizado por su elasticidad. Aplicación a la primera ola del COVID-19 en Chile

“…Hasta ese día los contagios aumentan y a partir de él, con algunas oscilaciones, descienden sin superar nunca el máximo alcanzado. Especialistas habían avanzado que el día pico podría producirse un poco antes, en la primera semana de junio [38][39][40] .…”

Madres Trabajadoras Académicas: Opacidades, Privilegios Y Resistencias en Pandemia

“…Respecto de las responsabilidades, éstas se centraron a nivel preventivo en el plano individual y en las restricciones de las libertades, más que en un cambio cultural e implementación de medidas colectivas que permitieran un resguardo real del hacinamiento como fuente de 4 ISSN 1807-0310 contagio. Los discursos frente al Covid-19, se redefinieron como una endemia, ya no epidemia (Canals, Canals, & Cuadrado, 2020) cumpliendo dos criterios: la permanencia de la enfermedad en el tiempo y la afectación de un grupo de población definido (Observatorio UC, 2020), lo que hace proyectar su presencia, como parte de nuestra realidad presente y futura.…”

Influence of the Effective Reproduction Number on the SIR Model with a Dynamic Transmission Rate

“…It was important for models to be simple enough in technical terms to be understood and, simultaneously, to capture the structure of the relationships of the determinants and their connection with the variables of epidemiological interest. This strategic character [14], summarized in expressions such as "The simplest models can be of great benefit in predicting and monitoring epidemics, helping to understand the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and contribute to decision-making" [15], or "Models should not be simpler than necessary, but also not more complex than needed", became necessary and valued [16][17][18].…”