COVID-19 in Londrina-PR: SEIR Model with Parameter Optimization

Abstract

The first cases of COVID-19 in Londrina-PR were manifested in March 2020 and the disease lasts until the present moment. We aim to inform citizens in a scientific way about how the disease spreads. The present work seeks to describe the behavior of the disease over time. We started from a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations like SEIR to find relevant information such as: transmission rates and prediction of the peak of infected people. We used the data released by city hall of Londrina to carry out simulations in periods of 14 days, applying a parameter optimization technique to obtain results with thegreatest possible credibility.