COVID-19 Outcomes in Saudi Arabia and the UK: A Tale of Two Kingdoms

Komies, Saleh; Aldhahir, Abdulelah M.; Almehmadi, Mater; Alghamdi, Saeed M; Alqarni, Ali; Oyelade, Tope; Alqahtani, Jaber S

doi:10.1101/2020.04.25.20079640

Cited by 19 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Aletreby et al [ 22 ] predicted that the pandemic would peak by the end of July 2020. Further, the work in [ 23 ] used the SIR model to predict future trends and compare the impact of control measures taken by Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom on the outcomes of COVID-19 pandemic. Their results indicated that early extreme measures imposed by the Saudi authority played a major role in reducing the spread of the disease, compared to the UK.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Spread in Saudi Arabia: Modeling, Simulation and Analysis

Alrasheed

Althnian

Kurdi

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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The novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-Coronavirus-2 (CoV-2) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic and has affected over 200 countries around the world. Mathematical epidemic models can be used to predict the course of an epidemic and develop methods for controlling it. As social contact is a key factor in disease spreading, modeling epidemics on contact networks has been increasingly used. In this work, we propose a simulation model for the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Saudi Arabia using a network-based epidemic model. We generated a contact network that captures realistic social behaviors and dynamics of individuals in Saudi Arabia. The proposed model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the control measures employed by the Saudi government, to predict the future dynamics of the disease in Saudi Arabia according to different scenarios, and to investigate multiple vaccination strategies. Our results suggest that Saudi Arabia would have faced a nationwide peak of the outbreak on 21 April 2020 with a total of approximately 26 million infections had it not imposed strict control measures. The results also indicate that social distancing plays a crucial role in determining the future local dynamics of the epidemic. Our results also show that the closure of schools and mosques had the maximum impact on delaying the epidemic peak and slowing down the infection rate. If a vaccine does not become available and no social distancing is practiced from 10 June 2020, our predictions suggest that the epidemic will end in Saudi Arabia at the beginning of November with over 13 million infected individuals, and it may take only 15 days to end the epidemic after 70% of the population receive a vaccine.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Spread in Saudi Arabia: Modeling, Simulation and Analysis

Alrasheed

Althnian

Kurdi

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ). Equations 5, (6) and 7were used to calculate the RMSE, MAE and MAPE respectively (10).…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Different mathematical models were used to estimate the COVID -19 dynamics in the literature depending on the stage of the epidemics. Exponential Logistic growth model was utilized to study the pattern of COVID-19 epidemics in early stages in KSA (6). It has also been utilized to model late COVID-19 stages in China (10).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The government of Saudi Arabia implemented fast and stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 via human-to-human transmission (5). The government started with implementing a partial lockdown, and subsequently a full lockdown was implemented which led to a significant decline in the numbers of infected and mortality cases per day in Saudi Arabia (3, 6). Currently, there is no effective treatment to COVID-19 so, eradication of the epidemic and safe return to a healthy normal life will happen by the introduction of a vaccine or development of herd immunity which might take several months.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical modeling of the COVID-19 prevalence in Saudi Arabia

Elhassan

Gaafar

2020

Preprint

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The swift precautionary and preventive measures and regulations that were adopted by the Saudi authority has ameliorated the exponential escalation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread, decreased the fatality rate and critical cases of COVID-19. Understanding the trend of COVID-19 is crucial to establishing the appropriate precautionary measures to mitigate the epidemic spread. The aim of this paper was to modifying and enhancing the mathematical modeling to guide health authority and assist in an early assessment of the epidemic outbreak and can be utilised to monitor non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Both ARIMA model and Logistic growth model were developed to study the trend and to provide short and long-term forecasting of the prevalence of COVID-19 cases and dynamics. The data analyzed in this study covered the period between 2nd March and 21st June 2020. Two different scenarios were developed to predict the epidemic fluctuating trends and dynamics. The first scenario covered the period between 2nd March and 28th May when the first peak was observed and immediately declined. The analysis projected that the COVID-19 epidemic to reach a peak by 17th May with a total number of 58,534 infected cases and to end on the 4th August, if lockdown were not interrupted and folks followed the recommended personal and social safety guidelines. The second scenario was simulated because of the sudden sharp spike witnessed in the trend of the new confirmed cases on the last week of May and continue to escalate till the time of current writing-21st June. In the 2nd scenario, the analysis estimated the epidemic to peak on 15th June with a total number of 146,004 infected cases and to end on 29th September, 2020 with a final size of 209,607 (185,757 to 244,310) infected cases, assuming that the NPIs will be maintained while new normal life is resumed carefully. ARIMA and Logistic growth models showed excellent performance in projecting the epidemic prevalence, trends and dynamics at different phases. In conclusion, the analysis presented in this paper will assist policy-makers and health care authorities to evaluate the effect of the NPIs applied and to size the resources needed to manage different phases and cope with the final size of the epidemic estimates and to impose extra precautions.

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“…In Saudi Arabia, the number of COVID-19 cases has been increasing since February 2020. The Saudi Ministry of Health has made enormous efforts and guidelines to eradicate the virus [9], and the government established speci c lockdown precautions policies in March 2020: forcing individuals to quarantine themselves at home, suspending travel, imposing social distancing rules, and banning attendance at workplaces, schools, restaurants, shops, and gyms [9,10]. To date, Saudi Arabia has had around 268,934 con rmed cases and 2,760 deaths, which constitutes about 0.7% of the total population [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of COVID-19 quarantine on dietary habits and physical activity in Saudi Arabia: a cross-sectional study

Bakhsh

Khawandanah

Naaman

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments around the world to impose strict hygiene and national lockdown measures, which in turn has changed the dietary and lifestyle habits of the world’s population. Thus, the aim of this study is to evaluate whether dietary and physical activity behaviors of Saudi Arabia’s adult population changed during the COVID-19 quarantine.Methods: An electronic questionnaire was distributed on social media between June and July 2020 and was completed by 2,255 participants (24% aged 30–39 years old, 64% female, 68% university educated).Results: Over 40% and 45% of participants reported eating and snacking more, respectively, which led to weight gain in 38%. Most participants reported that they consumed home-cooked (73%) and healthy meals (47%), while only 7% reported that they consumed foods from restaurants. Feelings of boredom and emptiness (44%) and the availability of time for preparing meals (40%) were the main reasons for changing dietary habits. Honey (43%) and vitamin C (50%) were the most consumed immune-boosting food and dietary supplement, respectively. COVID-19 also had a negative impact on physical activity, lowering the practice in 52% subjects, which was associated with significant weight gain (p <0.001).Conclusion: Assessing the changes to the population’s dietary habits and physical activity during the lockdown will help predict the outcome of the population’s future health and wellbeing after the pandemic.

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COVID-19 Outcomes in Saudi Arabia and the UK: A Tale of Two Kingdoms

Cited by 19 publications

References 21 publications

COVID-19 Spread in Saudi Arabia: Modeling, Simulation and Analysis

COVID-19 Spread in Saudi Arabia: Modeling, Simulation and Analysis

Mathematical modeling of the COVID-19 prevalence in Saudi Arabia

The Impact of COVID-19 quarantine on dietary habits and physical activity in Saudi Arabia: a cross-sectional study

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