COVID-19 Propagation Model Based on Economic Development and Interventions

Nian, Fuzhong; Shi, Yayong; Cao, Jun

doi:10.1007/s11277-021-08998-9

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Studies have shown that there is asymptomatic infection during transmission of the NeoCuan alpha strain, and that recovered NeoCuan alpha infected individuals have a very low rate of reinfection [10]. Studies have shown that the average recovery time for patients is 14 days, so the incubator self-healing rate is public 1 14…”

Section: Forecast Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method for Constructing Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of a New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Based on the Effect of Temperature

Bao

2023

JAMP

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To better predict the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak, mathematical modeling and analysis of the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak is proposed based on data analysis and infectious disease theory. Firstly, the mathematical model indicators of the spread of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic are determined by combining the theory of infectious diseases, the basic assumptions of the spread model of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic are given based on the theory of data analysis model, the spread rate of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is calculated by combining the results of the assumptions, and the spread rate of the epidemic is inverted to push back into the assumptions to complete the construction of the mathematical modeling of the diffusion. Relevant data at different times were collected and imported into the model to obtain the spread data of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and the results were analyzed and reflected. The model considers the disease spread rate as the dependent variable of temperature, and analyzes and verifies the spread of outbreaks over time under real temperature changes. Comparison with real results shows that the model developed in this paper is more in line with the real disease spreading situation under specific circumstances. It is hoped that the accurate prediction of the epidemic spread can provide relevant help for the effective containment of the epidemic spread.

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Section: Forecast Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method for Constructing Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of a New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Based on the Effect of Temperature

Bao

2023

JAMP

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“…Under the COVID-19 transmission model, every country will be affected by economic conditions and government intervention measures. Good economic conditions will exacerbate the spread of COVID-19, while appropriate government intervention measures will greatly reduce its spread ( 14 ). Specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the activities of the service and manufacturing industries, resulting in an increase in the number of unemployed people.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The spatial linkage mechanism: medical level, public health security, and economic climate from 19 OECD EU countries

Zheng

Liu

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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IntroductionThe global spread of the COVID-19 has brought about global changes, especially in terms of economic growth. Therefore, it has become a global issue to explore the impact of public health security on the economy.MethodsEmploying a dynamic spatial Durbin model, this study analyzes the spatial linkage mechanism of medical level, public health security, and economic climate in 19 countries as well as investigates the relationship between economic climate and COVID-19 by the panel data of 19 OECD European Union countries from March 2020 to September 2022.ResultsResults show that an improvement in the medical level can reduce the negative impact of public health security on the economy. Specifically, there is a significant spatial spillover effect. The degree of economic prosperity hurts the reproduction rate of COVID-19.DiscussionPolicymakers should consider both the severity of the public health security issues and the economic level when developing prevention and control policies. Given this, corresponding suggestions provide theoretical support for formulating policies to reduce the economic impact of public health security issues.

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“…However, these studies have mainly focused on each individual country without exploring propagation patterns and progression characteristics with collective public health interventions at the regional scale. Previous research has shown that regional coordination could interrupt the transmission of COVID-19 in an effective way [10,17,[21][22][23]. To contain the emerging epidemic of COVID-19 and minimize its risk, countries in SEA have deployed various preventive and containment measures, such as lockdowns, social distancing restrictions, and mandatory tracking and trace methods [24,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Linkages Between Spatiotemporal Patterns of the COVID-19 Delta Variant and Public Health Interventions in Southeast Asia: Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistical Analysis Method

Luo¹,

Liu²,

Zhou³

et al. 2022

JMIR Public Health Surveill

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Background The COVID-19 Delta variant has presented an unprecedented challenge to countries in Southeast Asia (SEA). Its transmission has shown spatial heterogeneity in SEA after countries have adopted different public health interventions during the process. Hence, it is crucial for public health authorities to discover potential linkages between epidemic progression and corresponding interventions such that collective and coordinated control measurements can be designed to increase their effectiveness at reducing transmission in SEA. Objective The purpose of this study is to explore potential linkages between the spatiotemporal progression of the COVID-19 Delta variant and nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures in SEA. We detected the space-time clusters of outbreaks of COVID-19 and analyzed how the NPI measures relate to the propagation of COVID-19. Methods We collected district-level daily new cases of COVID-19 from June 1 to October 31, 2021, and district-level population data in SEA. We adopted prospective space-time scan statistics to identify the space-time clusters. Using cumulative prospective space-time scan statistics, we further identified variations of relative risk (RR) across each district at a half-month interval and their potential public health intervention linkages. Results We found 7 high-risk clusters (clusters 1-7) of COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia between June and August, 2021, with an RR of 5.45 (P<.001), 3.50 (P<.001), 2.30 (P<.001), 1.36 (P<.001), 5.62 (P<.001), 2.38 (P<.001), 3.45 (P<.001), respectively. There were 34 provinces in Indonesia that have successfully mitigated the risk of COVID-19, with a decreasing range between –0.05 and –1.46 due to the assistance of continuous restrictions. However, 58.6% of districts in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines saw an increase in the infection risk, which is aligned with their loosened restrictions. Continuous strict interventions were effective in mitigating COVID-19, while relaxing restrictions may exacerbate the propagation risk of this epidemic. Conclusions The analyses of space-time clusters and RRs of districts benefit public health authorities with continuous surveillance of COVID-19 dynamics using real-time data. International coordination with more synchronized interventions amidst all SEA countries may play a key role in mitigating the progression of COVID-19.

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COVID-19 Propagation Model Based on Economic Development and Interventions

Cited by 6 publications

References 40 publications

A Method for Constructing Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of a New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Based on the Effect of Temperature

A Method for Constructing Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of a New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Based on the Effect of Temperature

The spatial linkage mechanism: medical level, public health security, and economic climate from 19 OECD EU countries

Investigating Linkages Between Spatiotemporal Patterns of the COVID-19 Delta Variant and Public Health Interventions in Southeast Asia: Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistical Analysis Method

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