CQESTR Simulation of Dryland Agroecosystem Soil Organic Carbon Changes under Climate Change Scenarios

Gollany, Hero T.

doi:10.2134/advagricsystmodel6.2013.0004

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Soil C models are especially useful tools to examine the impact of management practices on SOC over time when considering long‐term climate change (Gollany et al, 2012b; Gollany, 2016). In soil C models, the major driver of C stocks is C inputs from crop yield and the subsequent additions of crop biomass (Rickman et al, 2002; Liang et al, 2009).…”

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confidence: 99%

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Response to Tillage, Yield, and Climate Change in the Southeastern Coastal Plains

Nash

Gollany²,

Novak³

et al. 2018

J of Env Quality

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Intensive tillage, low-residue crops, and a warm, humid climate have contributed to soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the southeastern Coastal Plains region. Conservation (CnT) tillage and winter cover cropping are current management practices to rebuild SOC; however, there is sparse long-term field data showing how these management practices perform under variable climate conditions. The objectives of this study were to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, to simulate SOC in the top 15 cm of a loamy sand soil (fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Kandiudult) under conventional (CvT) or CnT tillage to elucidate the impact of projected climate change and crop yields on SOC relative to management and recommend the best agriculture management to increase SOC. Conservation tillage was predicted to increase SOC by 0.10 to 0.64 Mg C ha for six of eight crop rotations compared with CvT by 2033. The addition of a winter crop [rye ( L.) or winter wheat ( L.)] to a corn ( L.)-cotton ( L.) or corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotation increased SOC by 1.47 to 2.55 Mg C ha. A continued increase in crop yields following historical trends could increase SOC by 0.28 Mg C ha, whereas climate change is unlikely to have a significant impact on SOC except in the corn-cotton or corn-soybean rotations where SOC decreased up to 0.15 Mg C ha by 2033. The adoption of CnT and cover crop management with high-residue-producing corn will likely increase SOC accretion in loamy sand soils. Simulation results indicate that soil C saturation may be reached in high-residue rotations, and increasing SOC deeper in the soil profile will be required for long-term SOC accretion beyond 2030.

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confidence: 99%

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Response to Tillage, Yield, and Climate Change in the Southeastern Coastal Plains

Nash

Gollany²,

Novak³

et al. 2018

J of Env Quality

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“…Furthermore, increasing SOC is essential to ecosystem functioning due to its positive effects on cation exchange capacity, pH, soil fertility, soil microbes, soil aggregate stability and structure, erosion, aeration, and water retention (Alberts and Moldenhauer, 1981; Gollany et al, 1992; Six et al, 2000; Kong et al, 2005; van Keulen, 2001; Janzen, 2006). The loss of C from dryland PNW soils after conversion from native prairie to agricultural cropping is well documented (Rasmussen and Collins, 1991; Rasmussen and Albrecht, 1998; Gollany, 2016). Using long‐term data, Liebig et al (2005) estimated an average relative SOM loss of 34 ± 14% in the top 30‐cm depth in the northwestern United States and western Canada after conversion from native prairie or forest to crop production.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…It is not feasible to determine effects of climate change on SOC in agroecosystems due to the slow process and the complex interactions between management factors, climate, and edaphic properties (Gollany, 2016). The potential impacts of climate change on C cycling and SOC accrual and loss in agroecosystems have been assessed by process‐based models.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The potential impacts of climate change on C cycling and SOC accrual and loss in agroecosystems have been assessed by process‐based models. Simulation models such as CENTURY, CQESTR, and RothC (Jenkinson et al, 1991; Paustian et al, 1992; Smith et al, 1997; Jones et al, 2005; Gollany, 2016) can be used to predict potential effects of climate change on SOC. We selected the CQESTR model because it can compute SOC in a soil profile of up to five layers or horizons (Liang et al, 2009).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Cropping Intensity, Tillage, and Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Dryland

Gollany

Polumsky

2018

J of Env Quality

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Managing dryland cropping systems to increase soil organic C (SOC) under changing climate is challenging after decades of winter wheat ( L.)-fallow and moldboard plow tillage (W-F/MP). The objective was to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, and SOC data collected in 2004, 2008, and 2012 to predict the best management to increase SOC under changing climate in four cropping systems, which included continuous wheat under no tillage (W-W/NT), wheat and sorghum × sudangrass [ (L.) Moench. × L.] under no tillage, wheat-fallow under sweep tillage, and W-F/MP. Since future yields and climate are uncertain, 20 scenarios for each cropping system were simulated with four climate projections and five crop yield scenarios (current crop yields, and 10 or 30% greater or lesser yields). Measured and simulated SOC were significantly ( < 0.0001) correlated ( = 0.98) at all soil depths. Predicted SOC changes ranged from -12.03 to 2.56 Mg C ha in the 1-m soil depth for W-F/MP and W-W/NT, respectively, during the 2012 to 2052 predictive period. Only W-W/NT sequestered SOC at a rate of 0.06 Mg C ha yr under current crop yields and climate. Under climate change and yield scenarios, W-W/NT lost SOC except with a 30% wheat yield increase for 40 yr. Predicted SOC increases in W-W/NT were 0.71, 1.16, and 0.88 Mg C ha under the Oregon Climate Assessment Reports for low emissions and high emissions and the Regional Climate Model version 3 with boundary conditions from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model, respectively, with 30% yield increases. Continuous no-till cropping would increase SOC and improve soil health and resiliency to lessen the impact of extreme weather.

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“…Six climate and crop yield scenarios were simulated for both cropping systems based on the inclusion or exclusion of climate change and five rates of crop yield increase or decrease over the predictive period. This is similar to the approach used by Gollany (2016). The baseline scenario assumed that crop yields and biomass inputs remained at the 1996 to 2014 average and that climate (mean monthly air temperature and precipitation) remained at the 2005 to 2014 average.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Changes in Maryland Are Affected by Tillage, Climate Change, and Crop Yield

et al. 2018

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The impact of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in no-till (NT) and conventionally tilled (CT) agricultural systems is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of projected climate change on SOC to 50-cm soil depth for grain cropping systems in the southern Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We used SOC and other data from the long-term Farming Systems Project in Beltsville, MD, and CQESTR, a process-based soil C model, to predict the impact of cropping systems and climate (air temperature and precipitation) on SOC for a 40-yr period . Since future crop yields are uncertain, we simulated five scenarios with differing yield levels (crop yields from 1996-2014, and at 10 or 30% greater or lesser than these yields). Without change in climate or crop yields (baseline conditions) CQESTR predicted an increase in SOC of 0.014 and 0.021 Mg ha −1 yr −1 in CT and NT, respectively. Predicted climate change alone resulted in an SOC increase of only 0.002 Mg ha −1 yr −1 in NT and a decrease of 0.017 Mg ha −1 yr −1 in CT. Crop yield declines of 10 and 30% led to SOC decreases between 2 and 8% compared with 2012 levels. Increasing crop yield by 10 and 30% was sufficient to raise SOC 2 and 7%, respectively, above the climate-only scenario under both CT and NT between 2012 and 2052. Results indicate that under these simulated conditions, the negative impact of climate change on SOC levels could be mitigated by crop yield increases.

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CQESTR Simulation of Dryland Agroecosystem Soil Organic Carbon Changes under Climate Change Scenarios

Cited by 11 publications

References 65 publications

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Response to Tillage, Yield, and Climate Change in the Southeastern Coastal Plains

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Response to Tillage, Yield, and Climate Change in the Southeastern Coastal Plains

Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Cropping Intensity, Tillage, and Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Dryland

Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Changes in Maryland Are Affected by Tillage, Climate Change, and Crop Yield

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