Croatian Rural Futures in 2030: Four Alternative Scenarios for Postsocialist Countryside in the Newest E.U. Member State

Abstract

The academic picture of a globalized European countryside, and particularly of rural areas in postsocialist, new member states of the European Union, is one of huge and increasing complexity, diversity, and uncertainties about the future. The aim of this research is to construct alternative scenarios for rural Croatia in 2030, acknowledging its postsocialist transition as an important framework. Future development scenarios were constructed by integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches. The main methods used

Crude Birth Rate in Croatia: local-scale variability, spatial patterns, and trends from 2001 to 2020

“…Iti s worth mentioning that intense depopulation of the periphery and polarization were present before the study period (Friganović and Živić, 1994;Sić, 2003;Nejašmić, 2008). Although there are different scenarios for the development of rural areas in Croatia (Lukić et al, 2022), looking at the presented birth rate trends, as well as migration flows (Klempić Bogadi and Lajić, 2014), further polarization is inevitable. But, unlike previous periods, the center is no longer growing demographically, rather it is stagnating or shrinking -in 2021, a total population decrease in the City of Zagreb was recorded for the first time.…”

Land use and land cover changes in the Lower Neretva Region from 1990 to 2020

“…The causes of the changes in land use and land cover have not been fully investigated, but taking into account the initial results, the spatial trends indicate a further expansion of built-up areas and agricultural growth, while the negative processes are likely to continue to manifest themselves in a reduction of sparse vegetation areas and swamps. It is possible to observe these influences in the context of several possible development scenarios and different types of rural areas according to their development characteristics (Lukić et al, 2021).…”