Crop substitution behavior among food crop farmers in Ghana: an efficient adaptation to climate change or costly stagnation in traditional agricultural production system?

Abstract

This study analyzes impact of climate change on yield, planting decisions and output of five major food crops (cassava, maize, sorghum, rice and yam) in Ghana. Results of Multivariate Tobit Model show that yield, planting decisions and output of cassava, maize, sorghum and rice will increase as a result of climate change. This is in clear contrast to the hypothesis that warming and drying will reduce crop yields in countries located within the tropics. Climate change impact on yields, planting decisions and output of yam is projected to be negative. Analysis of planting decisions indicates that climate change will stimulate farmers to allocate more land for cassava, maize, sorghum and rice cultivation. It is observed that farmers respond to positive impact of climate on yields of cassava, maize, sorghum and rice by reallocating more land for the cultivation of these crops, which is in line with neoclassical understanding of producer behavior. In contrast, farmers' response to price rise does not display a consistent pattern. By and large, farmers respond weakly to price increases. This peculiar trait of food crop farmers can stifle the future development of the food crop subsector in Ghana.

Effect of Climatic and Non-Climatic Factors on Cassava Yields in Togo: Agricultural Policy Implications

“…In line with previous studies in West Africa (e.g., [28,34]), a significant effect of changing crop prices on cassava production is found in this study. Whereas the yield of cassava increases with an increasing real producer price ratio between the crop and its common intercrops in the country (maize and yam, [26]), it decreases with an increase in the price ratio between common beans (usually sown as a monocrop) and cassava.…”

“…A positive effect of rainfall on cassava yields is also reported by [29] for the Guinea Savanna part of Nigeria. In contrast to the findings by [28,29], Emaziye [30] reports a positive effect of increasing temperature on cassava yields in Nigeria, but a negative effect of increasing rainfall. Through cointegration analysis, Mbanasor et al [31] find a positive short-term but negative long-tern effect of rainfall on cassava yields, and a consistent negative effect of temperature in both the short and the long term.…”

“…These predictions show that cassava is relatively more resilient to changes in climatic conditions than most of the priority crops in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite its resilience, a report on crop substitution behaviour among food crop farmers in Ghana found a significant negative effect of increasing maximum temperature on cassava yields, but a significant positive effect of rainfall and increasing minimum temperature [28]. A positive effect of rainfall on cassava yields is also reported by [29] for the Guinea Savanna part of Nigeria.…”

“…Indicating decreasing marginal land productivity, a 10% increase in the area allocated to cassava production in sub-Saharan Africa caused a 2% decrease in cassava yields [27]. In addition to the effect of increasing land area on crop yields, other researchers (e.g., [28]) report beneficial implications of increasing maize price for cassava through increased allocation of land for cassava production in Ghana. The increasing price of cassava also prompted farmers to allocate more land for maize.…”

Towards Climate-Smart Agricultural Approach: Prospect for Smallholder Farmers in Semi-Arid Regions

“…The increase in temperature and reduced rainfall already have significant effects, as they lead to drought conditions, which potentially cause catastrophic yield reductions unless sufficient irrigation system is used, something which smallholder farmers are unable to do (Rurinda et al 2014;Sarr, 2012). Furthermore, ongoing warning and drying reduces water which is available for irrigation; reduces soil fertility through increased oxidation of soil organic carbon; and it also increases incidence of pest, diseases and weeds (Issahaku & Maharjan, 2014). Consequently, proactive adaptation measures are urgently required, otherwise yields from rain-fed agriculture could be decreased by up to 50% by 2020 in semi-arid regions (Brown, 2012).…”