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Purpose This paper aims to document indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) used for short- and long-range rainfall prediction by small holder farmers in three communities of Guruve District, in north-eastern Zimbabwe. The study also investigated farmers’ perceptions of contemporary forecasts and the reliability of both IKS and contemporary forecasts. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected among small holder farmers in Guruve District using household interviews and focus group discussions in three wards in the district, grouped according to their agro-climate into high and low rainfall areas. To get an expert view of the issues, key informant interviews were held with key agricultural extension personnel and traditional leaders. Findings Results obtained showed show high dependence on IKS-based forecasts in the district. Over 80 per cent of the farmers used at least one form of IKS for short- and long-range forecasting, as they are easily understood and applicable to their local situations. Tree phenology, migration and behaviour of some bird species and insects, and observation of atmospheric phenomena were the common indicators used. Tree phenology was the most common with over 80 per cent of farmers using this indicator. While some respondents (60 per cent) viewed forecasts derived from IKS as more reliable than science-based forecasts, 69 per cent preferred an integration of the two methods. Originality/value The simplicity and location specificity of IKS-based forecasts makes them potentially useful to smallholder farmers, climate scientists and policymakers in tracking change in these areas for more effective climate change response strategies and policymaking.

Climatic variability over southern Africa is a well-recognized phenomenon, yet knowledge about the temporal variability of extreme seasons is lacking. This study investigates the intraseasonal progression of extreme seasons over Zimbabwe using precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data covering the 1981–2005 period. Results show that the greatest deficits/surpluses of precipitation occur during the middle of the rainfall season (January and February), and the temporal distribution of precipitation during extreme dry seasons seems to shift earlier than that of extreme wet seasons. Furthermore, anomalous wet (dry) conditions were observed prior to the development of extreme dry (wet) seasons. Impacts of precipitation variations on vegetation lag by approximately 1–2 months. The semiarid southern region experiences more variability of vegetation cover than do the northern and eastern regions. Three distinct temporal patterns of dry years were noted by considering the maximum NDVI level, the mid-postseason NDVI condition, and nested dry spells. The findings of this study emphasize that climate extremes ought not to be simply understood in terms of total seasonal precipitation, because they may have within them some nested distribution patterns that may have a strong influence on primary production.

Climate change encompassing mostly hydro-meteorological hazards is a reality affecting the world in diverse ways. It is manifesting in various ways such as increases in frequency and intensity of floods, droughts, and extreme temperatures. In recent years, climate change has induced droughts, other extreme weather events and meteorological disasters in many countries including Zimbabwe. Effective management of climate change induced challenges require localized strategies which may vary from one part of the world to another and even within a country. In view of the need to understand localized impacts and responses to climate change, the main objectives of the study were to (i) assess the impact of climate change on livelihoods and food security, (ii) identify and evaluate adaptation and mitigation strategies that small holder farmers in Ward 17, Nyanga, Zimbabwe have developed. The research used both qualitative and quantitative approaches with data collection methods comprising of questionnaires (56), observations and interviews (8). The tools were used to gather information which included encounters with extreme weather events, climatic trends as well as adaptive responses. The findings showed that climate change had a significant negative impact on the livelihoods and food security status of small holder farmers in ward 17 of Nyanga district. The identified climate change adaptation strategies implemented in the study area included food aid, use of traditional grains and other drought resistant crops, early planting, multiple planting, barter trade and livelihood diversification. The mitigation strategies used included afforestation and reforestation programs, avoiding veld fires and preservation of wetlands. The research identified challenges to climate change adaptation which include lack of markets to sell farming produce, inefficient institutions, poverty and high climate variability and increased uncertainty in the behavior of seasons. The findings of this study indicated the need for similar assessment in other parts of the country as impacts of climate change and responses thereof should vary from place to place.