Crowdsourcing the vote: New horizons in citizen forecasting

Temporão, Mickael; Dufresne, Yannick; Savoie, Justin; Linden, Clifton van der

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.011

Cited by 9 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…There is no support for either H 3 (general knowledge) or H 4 (date of interview). The latter null finding is particularly noteworthy, given that previous work has found this factor to be a significant predictor of correctly understanding the competitive circumstances of federal election races (Blais and Turgeon, 2004; Temparao et al, 2019). This could suggest that campaigns have different effects upon learning in municipal elections than they do at other orders of government.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…There is good reason to believe that voters are generally equipped to predict election winners, at least at the aggregate level. The idea of “wisdom of the crowds” or “citizen forecasting” (Murr, 2011) has found support in Canada (Temporao et al, 2019), as well as a variety of other settings, including the UK (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2011), Germany (Leiter et al, 2018) and the United States (Lewis-Beck and Tien, 1999). This research shows that citizens, at least in the aggregate, can predict election outcomes with a fair degree of accuracy.…”

Section: Voter Predictions and Perceptions Of Competitivenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Incumbency and Competitiveness in City Council Elections: How Accurate Are Voter Perceptions?

2020

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Incumbent city councillors have an almost insurmountable advantage in Canadian municipal elections. This article aims to improve our understanding of the municipal incumbency advantage by considering the ability of electors to correctly identify the two most competitive candidates in one's ward and the factors associated with being able to do so. Using survey data from the Canadian Municipal Election Study (CMES), we consider the case of the 2018 elections in Mississauga, a city with typically high rates of incumbent re-election. Survey respondents were asked to identify the two most competitive candidates in their local ward races. We find that comparatively few electors are able to recognize which challenger serves as the strongest threat to a sitting councillor, a finding that suggests that coordination problems may help to contribute to high rates of incumbent success. We identify several individual-level and ward-level correlates of correctly identifying the first-place and second-place finishers. We do note, however, that there is a significant amount of variation among the thousands of municipalities in Canada, so findings from this case should be tested in other settings, including larger or smaller cities where levels of information might be different.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Voter Predictions and Perceptions Of Competitivenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incumbency and Competitiveness in City Council Elections: How Accurate Are Voter Perceptions?

2020

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“…As more people answer, for example, "party X," this party's likelihood of winning is considered higher. Such an approach has frequently been applied elsewhere, including the United Kingdom, the United States, and -more recently-Canada (Temporão et al 2019) and Germany (Murr and Lewis-Beck 2022). Thus, it did not seem unreasonable to imagine that CF would work in France.…”

Section: Citizen Forecasting Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Election

Dufresne

Jérôme

Lewis‐Beck

et al. 2022

APSC

Self Cite

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“…The miracle of aggregation theorem is an example of the 'wisdom of crowds' (WOC) principle according to which groups take more enlightened decisions and show better judgment than any of their individual members taken separately (Simoiu et al, 2019;Surowiecki, 2004). This has been demonstrated repeatedly in the case of voters' expectations regarding election outcomes (see, e.g., Miller et al, 2012;Murr, 2017;Temporão et al, 2019). Studying individual-level predictors of forecasting ability is a useful endeavour if we want to extract the full potential of the WOC principle.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

With a little help from my friends? The impact of social networks on citizens' forecasting ability

Mongrain

2022

European J Political Res

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Partisan preferences usually stand out as the major driving force behind voters' expectations about election outcomes. Apart from partisan preferences, however, purely individual‐level factors appear to be only weakly associated with forecasting ability. Some studies argue that we need to move from the strictly personal sphere to the interpersonal one to better understand the underpinnings of individuals' forecasting ability. This paper leverages data from 77 elections at the district, municipal, regional, and/or national levels in 10 different countries to assess the impact of social networks and social interactions on the accuracy of citizens' electoral expectations. The results cast doubt on the capacity of social interactions to influence citizens' forecasting skills.

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Crowdsourcing the vote: New horizons in citizen forecasting

Cited by 9 publications

References 16 publications

Incumbency and Competitiveness in City Council Elections: How Accurate Are Voter Perceptions?

Incumbency and Competitiveness in City Council Elections: How Accurate Are Voter Perceptions?

Citizen Forecasting: The 2022 French Presidential Election

With a little help from my friends? The impact of social networks on citizens' forecasting ability

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