Crude Oil Prices, Household Spending and Economic Growth in the Asean-4 Region: An Analysis of Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag

Rumbia, Wali Aya; Muthalib, Abd Azis; Abbas, None Bakhtiar; Adam, Pasrun; Millia, Heppi; Saidi, La Ode; Azis, Muh. Irfandy

doi:10.32479/ijeep.9293

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…PMG method is used to estimate the NPARDL model since it offers heterogeneous short-run coefficients and homogenous long-run coefficients for all states ( Rumbia et al, 2020 ). The primary reason for employing the PMG method is that the correlation between PM 2.5 pollution and COVID-19 cases could be different in the short-run.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The asymmetric nexus between air pollution and COVID-19: Evidence from a non-linear panel autoregressive distributed lag model

Chen

Akram

Irfan

et al. 2022

Environmental Research

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The emergence of a new coronavirus (COVID-19) has become a major global concern that has damaged human health and disturbing environmental quality. Some researchers have identified a positive relationship between air pollution (fine particulate matter PM 2.5 ) and COVID-19. Nonetheless, no inclusive investigation has comprehensively examined this relationship for a tropical climate such as India. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by investigating the nexus between air pollution and COVID-19 in the ten most affected Indian states using daily observations from 9th March to September 20, 2020. The study has used the newly developed Hidden Panel Cointegration test and Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NPARDL) model for asymmetric analysis. Empirical results illustrate an asymmetric relationship between PM 2.5 and COVID-19 cases. More precisely, a 1% change in the positive shocks of PM 2.5 increases the COVID-19 cases by 0.439%. Besides, the estimates of individual states expose the heterogeneous effects of PM 2.5 on COVID-19. The asymmetric causality test of Hatemi-J's (2011) also suggests that the positive shocks on PM 2.5 Granger-cause positive shocks on COVID19 cases. Research findings indicate that air pollution is the root cause of this outbreak; thus, the government should recognize this channel and implement robust policy guidelines to control the spread of environmental pollution.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The asymmetric nexus between air pollution and COVID-19: Evidence from a non-linear panel autoregressive distributed lag model

Chen

Akram

Irfan

et al. 2022

Environmental Research

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“…Among these factors are oil prices (Rostin et al, 2019;Akinsola and Odhiambo, 2020), oil price volatility (Eyden et al, 2019;Maheu et al, 2020), energy consumption (Ozcan and Ozturk, 2019;Wei et al, 2020), money supply and internet (Saidi et al, 2020). Other factors include information and communication technology (ICT) (Bahrini and Qaffas, 2019;Nguyen et al, 2020), consumption expenditure (Rumbia et al, 2020), inflation (Karahan and Çolak, 2020) and public debt (Bexheti et al, 2020;Ndoricimpa, 2020). Based on the research sites, studies investigating these factors can be grouped into two research groups: the group of studies conducted in a particular country and the group of studies carried out in a group of countries in the form of panels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Rosnawintang

Tajuddin

Adam

et al. 2020

IJEEP

Self Cite

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This paper aims to examine the effect of crude oil price volatility, the internet, and inflation on economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand). To test this effect, we use the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and panel data with annual time series for the period from 1995 to 2018. The test results show that only the internet affects economic growth in the long run, and this effect is positive. Meanwhile, in the short run, there is an impact of crude oil price volatility, the internet, and inflation on economic growth in all ASEAN-5 countries. However, the effect of inflation on economic growth only exists in Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

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“…The research also showed that a drop in global palm oil prices had a more significant negative impact on Indonesia's economy than fluctuations in gasoline prices. Oil price shocks influenced both the short-and long-term development of Indonesia's economy, which Rumbia et al (2020) analyzed, as well as the growth of the ASEAN-4 area from 1967 to 2018. A 1% rise in crude oil prices was shown to boost the size of the economy by 0.42% over the long term, according to the research.…”

Section: The Interplay Between Fluctuating Oil Prices Rising Price Le...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have shown a negative correlation between oil prices and inflation rates (Xia, 2021;Batrancea, 2021;Helali et al, 2021). Several studies point to an asymmetric effect (Rumbia et al, 2020;Chugunov et al, 2021). In addition, domestic savings and domestic loans to the private sector influence development in both directions.…”

Section: Literature Review On the Impact Of Industrial Value-added An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Riding the Waves of Fluctuating Oil Prices: Decoding the Impact on Economic Growth

Triantoro

Akhtar

Khan

et al. 2023

IJEEP

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Oil price fluctuations have always been controversial and remain significant in how a country's economy develops. It is especially easy for the worldwide price of natural resources to fluctuate, putting developing nations at risk of economic instability. Consider Pakistan's economy, which is very sensitive to changes in oil prices due to its reliance on the commodity. This research analyses the effects of oil prices on several macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, imports, gross savings, domestic lending to the private sector (DCPS), and industrial value-added in Pakistan. The study uses an error-correcting framework known as autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling to examine long-term connections between variables and their short-term implications. Additionally, data acquired between 1970 and 2020 was analyzed using Granger causality tests, impulse response functions (IRFs), and variance decomposition analyses (VDAs). The study found that inflation and domestic loans to the private sector hampered economic development in the near run. Conversely, imports, gross savings, industrial value added, and oil rents have a positive effect. A long-term connection between these variables was verified using the boundaries test. A unidirectional link was found in the causality tests between economic growth and imports, inflation and economic growth, and gross saving and domestic credit. An inverse link between domestic credit and inflation was found. The effect of oil rents on economic development in Pakistan is expected to rise during the next four years, according to the forecasts, before levelling out. According to the VDA results, the most critical factor influencing Pakistan's economic development over the next decade would be domestic lending to the private sector. Following these empirical results, the study proposes policy adjustments that might help Pakistan's economy expand more quickly and sustainably.

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Crude Oil Prices, Household Spending and Economic Growth in the Asean-4 Region: An Analysis of Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag

Cited by 8 publications

References 0 publications

The asymmetric nexus between air pollution and COVID-19: Evidence from a non-linear panel autoregressive distributed lag model

The asymmetric nexus between air pollution and COVID-19: Evidence from a non-linear panel autoregressive distributed lag model

Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in Asean-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Riding the Waves of Fluctuating Oil Prices: Decoding the Impact on Economic Growth

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