Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

Abstract

There is a paucity of research examining public response to the cumulative effects of multiple related extreme events over time. We investigated the separate and combined effects of frequency and trajectory of terrorist attacks. A scenario simulation of a series of gas station bombings in Southern California was developed to evaluate respondents' affect, risk perception, and intended avoidance behavior using a 3 (frequency; low vs. medium vs. high) by 3 (trajectory; increasing vs. constant vs. decreasing) factorial design. For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three-week period. A total of 275 respondents were included in the analysis. Results from analysis of covariances (ANCOVAs) indicate that trajectory of the sequential attacks (increasing or decreasing in frequency) predicts negative affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior. In contrast, frequency predicts neither negative affect, positive affect, risk perception, nor intended avoidance behavior. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) further indicate that the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention is mediated by risk perception and the effect of trajectory on risk perception is partially mediated by negative affect. In addition, both ANCOVAs and SEM model results suggest that (1) females experience less positive affect and perceive more risk than males, (2) respondents with higher income perceive more risk, and (3) younger respondents are more likely to modify their behavior to avoid the risk of future attacks.

Public Response to a Near‐Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty

“…For instance, Cui et al . demonstrated that reactions to cumulative terrorist events were influenced by the trajectory of the events. Rosoff et al .…”

“…This finding is consistent with previous studies. For instance, Cui et al (35) demonstrated that reactions to cumulative terrorist events were influenced by the trajectory of the events. Rosoff et al (51) found that respondents' reactions (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) to a flu epidemic intensified as the disaster escalated.…”

“…For instance, negative emotion has been shown to influence risk perception and decision making . In one study about public response to terrorist attacks, the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention was found to be mediated by perceived risk …”

“…(33,34) In one study about public response to terrorist attacks, the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention was found to be mediated by perceived risk. (35) We also anticipated that individual difference variables such as sex, age, and income could influence responses throughout a nuclear incident. Previous studies have shown that females generally report higher perceived risk than males.…”

Tracking and Analyzing Individual Distress Following Terrorist Attacks Using Social Media Streams

“…Traditional methods tend to excel in isolating the influence of processes at one level while obscuring the influence of others. For example, controlled experiments can track individuals' emotional dynamics and behaviors in response to simulated threats . However, there are practical limitations on controlled experiments' ability to capture important aspects of the macrosocial context in which real terrorist attacks are experienced, such as interactions within personal social networks and news stories that “trend” or are shared over interpersonal connections …”