Current and Future Estimates of Marginal Emission Factors for Indian Power Generation

Abstract

Emission factors from Indian electricity remain poorly characterized, despite known spatial and temporal variability. Limited publicly available emissions and generation data at sufficient detail make it difficult to understand the consequences of emissions to climate change and air pollution, potentially missing cost-effective policy designs for the world’s third largest power grid. We use reduced-form and full-form power dispatch models to quantify current (2017–2018) and future (2030–2031) marginal CO2, SO2, NOX, and PM2.5 emission factors from Indian power generation. These marginal emissions represent emissions changes due to small changes in demand. For 2017–2018, spatial variability in marginal CO2 emission factors range 3 orders of magnitude across India’s states. There is limited seasonal and intraday variability with coal generation likely to meet changes in demand more than half the time in more than half of the states. Assuming the Government of India approximate 2030 targets, the median marginal CO2 emission factor across states decreases by approximately a factor of 2, but emission factors still span 3 orders of magnitude across states. Under 2030–2031 assumptions there is greater seasonal and intraday variability by up to factors of two and four, respectively. Estimates provide emission factors to evaluate interventions such as electric vehicles, increased air conditioning, and energy efficiency.

Should India Move toward Vehicle Electrification? Assessing Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas and Criteria Air Pollutant Emissions of Alternative and Conventional Fuel Vehicles in India

“…Figure S17−S20 in the Supporting Information show the computed life-cycle emissions from the marginal emission factors in monsoon and nonmonsoon months associated with the top 10 states based on population, contributing to about 75% of the Indian population (∼1 billion). The state-specific marginal emission factor data is obtained from Sengupta 100 and explained in the Supporting Information. Afternoon charging shows an overall decrease in both CO 2 e and SO 2 emissions with the heavily populated states of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu benefiting the most with afternoon charging in both monsoon and nonmonsoon months.…”

Tapping the Unused Energy Potential of Solar Water Pumps in India

“…For the second scenario with a grid-connected pump, we assumed an electricity marginal emissions factor of 0.973 kg CO 2 /kWh for Chhattisgarh, determined by averaging the marginal emissions factors during the morning peak, midday, and afternoon in the monsoon season (i.e., hours of solar generation). The study by Shayak et al used low-order power dispatch models of the Indian electricity system to quantify the marginal emissions factors, relying on state-level demand data that accounted for imports, load shedding, and transmission losses. Hence, the emissions factor we used includes the emissions associated with the marginal operating generation unit and the transmission losses, which tend to be significant in the Indian power sector .…”

“…Such studies can ensure effective solar water pump deployment that can ameliorate climate change impacts such as those of the unpredictable monsoon seasons on the state's irrigation sector. Chhattisgarh ranks as one of the most polluting regions of India's power grid, being a net energy exporter with surplus energy supplied by large coal power plants, with recent estimates showing the highest marginal emissions factors in the country, 6 underscoring the environmental benefits of shifting new electricity irrigation demand to decentralized solar power. Thus, improving the utilization of these solar pumping systems could yield benefits to farmers, regional air quality, and the overall Indian power system.…”

Climate and health benefits of a transition from gas to electric cooking

“…We additionally illustrate subnational heterogeneity in MEFs using state-specific estimates for the US (ref 57 ) and India (ref 58 ) (shown in Table S12, S13). We present these state-specific results in terms of reduction in MEF needed to meet the theoretical energy equivalence trade-off between electricity and natural gas and LPG for the US and India, respectively.…”