Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe

García-León, David; Casanueva, Ana; Standardi, Gabriele; Burgstall, Annkatrin; Flouris, Andreas D.; Nybo, Lars

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26050-z

Cited by 125 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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Heatwaves have set new temperature records over most of the world recently, posing severe threats to humans and the ecosystems (García-León et al, 2021;Perkins-Kirkpatrick & Lewis, 2020). For example, western Europe and Scandinavia experienced record-breaking temperatures in the summer of 2019, leading to almost 400 deaths in the Netherlands and 1,500 deaths in France (Watts et al, 2021).

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

An Observational Investigation of Spatiotemporally Contiguous Heatwaves in China From a 3D Perspective

Luo

Lau

Liu

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Understanding the evolution of heatwaves is important for their prediction, mitigation, and adaptation. While most studies focused on either their temporal variability at individual station (or grid point) or the spatial variation over fixed durations, their daily joint evolution over space and time remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigate multi‐dimensional characteristics of spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves across China during 1961–2018 using observational data from a 3D perspective (i.e., latitude × longitude × time). Results obtained by the 3D identification show that large contiguous heatwaves in China exhibit distinct characteristics in different geographical locations and time periods. Heatwaves in northern areas prefer to move from west to east at a faster speed, persist longer, and have greater extent and intensity than southern heatwaves, which are generally originated from the east and move westward. It is also found that contiguous heatwaves are growing in frequency, magnitude, areal extent, duration, and traveling distance across China.

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confidence: 99%

An Observational Investigation of Spatiotemporally Contiguous Heatwaves in China From a 3D Perspective

Luo

Lau

Liu

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Empirical research has shown that extreme temperatures reduce labor productivity (21), damage crops (22,23), and increase mortality (9), among other effects. Because this research is often sector or region specific (24)(25)(26), a theoretical and empirical gap still remains between the nonlinearities identified at the local and sectoral level and the global economic assessments required to evaluate differing climate policies. Several empirical climate-economy studies have quantified the global economic effects of changes in average temperature (27)(28)(29)(30)(31)(32) and temperature variability (33) in an attempt to close this gap.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

Callahan

Mankin

2022

Sci. Adv.

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Increased extreme heat is among the clearest impacts of global warming, but the economic effects of heat waves are poorly understood. Using subnational economic data, extreme heat metrics measuring the temperature of the hottest several days in each year, and an ensemble of climate models, we quantify the effect of extreme heat intensity on economic growth globally. We find that human-caused increases in heat waves have depressed economic output most in the poor tropical regions least culpable for warming. Cumulative 1992–2013 losses from anthropogenic extreme heat likely fall between $5 trillion and $29.3 trillion globally. Losses amount to 6.7% of Gross Domestic Product per capita per year for regions in the bottom income decile, but only 1.5% for regions in the top income decile. Our results have the potential to inform adaptation investments and demonstrate how global inequality is both a cause and consequence of the unequal burden of climate change.

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“…So, short-term temperature decreases are expected to help economies’ situation the year they take place. Indeed, sudden heatwaves in Europe are found to decrease these countries’ GDP by about 0.3–0.5% (García-León et al 2021 ). The fact that the short-run temperature effect is harmful but the long-run one is positive could be explained by the ability of countries to adapt to disastrous situations in the short run to the long run (Alagidede et al 2016 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change: north and south EU economies—an application of dynamic asymmetric panel data models

Adam

Drakos

2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The need for a cleaner environment and wealthier economies has been highly recognized by European Union (EU) policymakers of the last years, as evidenced by the creation of a plethora of laws and regulations for reducing carbon dioxide emissions while promoting the economic prosperity of EU countries. Indeed, many works have been done in this field, remarking on climate change’s impacts on economies and the need for determinant environmental policies inside the EU. This paper investigates the effect of climate change on economic growth using nonlinear dynamic panel methods for 15 countries of the EU in the period 1981–2019. Specifically, it is examined the impact of temperature, precipitation, and CO2 emissions on economic growth. So, autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) methods were employed, overcoming cross-dependency and also considering linearity and nonlinearity. The results showed that economic growth has positive nonlinear relationship with long-run temperature, but in short-run they have a symmetric negative association. Moreover, precipitation has long-run negative and a short-run positive relationship with economic growth. However, when CO2 emissions are added, then model’s performance is decreased, and precipitation has a positive effect on economic growth, but all others, except from temperature increase, become insignificant. Finally, actions should be taken for more stable climate conditions and consistent environmental policies by EU countries. Graphical abstract

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Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe

Cited by 125 publications

References 67 publications

An Observational Investigation of Spatiotemporally Contiguous Heatwaves in China From a 3D Perspective

An Observational Investigation of Spatiotemporally Contiguous Heatwaves in China From a 3D Perspective

Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth

Climate change: north and south EU economies—an application of dynamic asymmetric panel data models

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