Current estimates of goose population sizes in western Europe, a gap analysis and an assessment of trends

Fox, Anthony D.; Ebbinge, B.S.; Mitchell, Carl; Heinicke, Thomas; Aarvak, Tomas; Colhoun, Kendrew; Clausen, Preben; Dereliv, S.; Faragó, Sándor; Koffijberg, Kees; Kruckenberg, Hulmut; Loonen, Maarten J. J. E.; Madsen, Jesper; Mooij, J.; Musil, Petr; Nilsson, Leif; Pihl, S.; Jeugd, H. der Van

doi:10.34080/os.v20.19922

Cited by 160 publications

(156 citation statements)

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“…Given that arctic geese concentrate at resting and wintering sites in high numbers (Fox et al 2010) it seems plausible that those sites might be hot spot areas for inter-and intraspecies transmission of avian diseases as suggested (Hlinak et al 1998(Hlinak et al , 2006Müller et al 1999). Changing agricultural usage of landscape and climate change let the geese population increase during the last 40 years, but since 15 years most of the populations stabilised (Fox et al 2010). Therefore, domestic flocks located along flyways are also likely to be at greater risk of disease introduction (USAD/APHIS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…hunting ban along the migration route and implementation of protected areas contributed decisively to the recovery of the goose population during the last 40 years (Madsen et al 1999). Currently, the estimated population number of White-fronted Geese in Europe ranges between 1.1−1.3 million birds (Fox et al 2010). Furthermore, in recent years the population of the Canada Goose which was introduced to Europe has increased to several tens of thousands birds in the north European countries.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Serological and virological survey and resighting of marked wild geese in Germany

Kruckenberg¹,

Müller

Freuling

et al. 2011

Eur J Wildl Res

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Serological and virological survey and resighting of marked wild geese in Germany

Kruckenberg¹,

Müller

Freuling

et al. 2011

Eur J Wildl Res

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“…Despite both increasing and decreasing trends in wintering waterbird population sizes in the Western Palearctic (Wetlands International 2006, previous studies have consistently shown a prevailing increase in the numbers of most waterbird species in Central Europe (Fox et al 2010;Keller 2011;Musil et al 2011;Slabeyová et al 2014), most likely due to the results of large-scale changes in the climate (Ridgill and Fox 1990;Maclean et al 2008;Lehikoinen et al 2013;Pavón-Jordán et al 2015). Moreover, the higher levels of eutrophication of European wetlands in the 20th century (Vollenweider 1968) may have led to increases in the trophic levels of wetlands and, consequently, increases in wintering waterbird numbers, as has been shown in Switzerland (Suter and Schifferli 1988).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…The question then arises: Are we able to assess the importance of sites using site-specific conditions, when the long-term changes in distribution and numbers of waterbirds are likely to be more influenced by macroscale effects at the flyway level? Central European wetlands would seem to offer less suitable conditions for wintering waterbirds, but, to the contrary, the importance of these sites have been increasing over the last decades (Keller 2011;Fox et al 2010;Musil et al 2011;Slabeyová et al 2014), no doubt due to the changing environment generating variation in critical factors, such as weather (Goss-Custard et al 1994;Sutherland 1998). However, significant changes in winter temperatures are more apparent in some other parts of the same wintering flyway, as exemplified by the increasing numbers in Finland , Pavón-Jordán et al 2015, whereas in our study area the long-term January temperatures seem to be remaining stable (Musilová et al 2009;Dušek et al 2012).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…This pattern in waterbird distribution can be affected by insufficiencies in the food supply in shallow coastal waters (Van Roomen et al 2012), and waterbirds therefore tend to avoid the zero degree isotherm (Ridgill and Fox 1990;Dalby et al 2013). Nevertheless, the importance of Central Europe as a wintering region for waterbird species-despite its location on the north-east or (opposite) southern edge of their normal winter distribution-has been increasing in recent decades (Fox et al 2010;Keller 2011;Keller and Burkhardt 2011;Musil et al 2011;Slabeyová et al 2014). This increasing importance is most likely the result of distributional shifts due to climate change (Ridgill and Fox 1990;Crick 2004;Rainio et al 2006;Lehikoinen et al 2013) or reductions in the distance of within-winter movements (Sauter et al 2010) and/or migratory distance (Gunnarsson et al 2012) due to long-term winter warming.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Long-term trends, total numbers and species richness of increasing waterbird populations at sites on the edge of their winter range: cold-weather refuge sites are more important than protected sites

et al. 2015

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Recent climate changes are most likely the major determining factor for the increasing importance of Central Europe for wintering waterbirds, given that most of the region is located on the edge of these species' wintering ranges. A few recent large-scale studies have demonstrated changes in species distribution at the flyway level, but detailed studies at the site level are still scarce. Using midJanuary wintering waterbird counts from 532 sites taken over a 48-year period (1966-2013), we have assessed the role of 'cold-weather refuges', i.e. sites where the selective pressures of winter harshness are reduced (e.g. sites with ample sources of running water, urban areas, warmer sites, sites with a relatively higher proportion of wetlands), and a site's protection status on species richness, total numbers and trends at the site level. We found prevailing increasing trends in total numbers and species richness at the site level, which are in line with the area's increasing importance as wintering grounds. However, some sites have likely been affected by density-dependent regulation as mean total numbers per site have not increased since the 1990s. Density dependence may also be a reflection of an increasing number of sites with running water in traditionally cold areas. Factors affecting trends in species richness at the site level are however less predictable. We demonstrate the great importance of cold-weather refuges, where running water has an effect on total numbers, species richness and trend affect total numbers, warmer areas and higher proportions of wetlands in the surroundings affect total numbers and species richness and urban areas affect total numbers. However, we found that legislative safeguards for sites, such as the establishment of Nature Reserves and Special Protection Areas, have no significant effects. Our findings therefore suggest that the effect of temperature and presence of cold-weather refuges (as defined here) are more relevant to this observed increasing trend of wintering waterbirds on the edge of wintering ranges than a reduction in human developmental pressures.

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Making do with less: must sparse data preclude informed harvest strategies for European waterbirds?

Johnson

Alhainen

Fox

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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The demography of many European waterbirds is not well understood because most countries have conducted little monitoring and assessment, and coordination among countries on waterbird management has little precedent. Yet intergovernmental treaties now mandate the use of sustainable, adaptive harvest strategies, whose development is challenged by a paucity of demographic information. In this study, we explore how a combination of allometric relationships, fragmentary monitoring and research information, and expert judgment can be used to estimate the parameters of a theta-logistic population model, which in turn can be used in a Markov decision process to derive optimal harvesting strategies. We show how to account for considerable parametric uncertainty, as well as for different management objectives. We illustrate our methodology with a poorly understood population of Taiga Bean Geese (Anser fabalis fabalis), which is a popular game bird in Fennoscandia. Our results for Taiga Bean Geese suggest that they may have demographic rates similar to other, well-studied species of geese, and our model-based predictions of population size are consistent with the limited monitoring information available. Importantly, we found that by using a Markov decision process, a simple scalar population model may be sufficient to guide harvest management of this species, even if its demography is age structured. Finally, we demonstrated how two different management objectives can lead to very different optimal harvesting strategies, and how conflicting objectives may be traded off with each other. This approach will have broad application for European waterbirds by providing preliminary estimates of key demographic parameters, by providing insights into the monitoring and research activities needed to corroborate those estimates, and by producing harvest management strategies that are optimal with respect to the managers' objectives, options, and available demographic information.

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Current estimates of goose population sizes in western Europe, a gap analysis and an assessment of trends

Abstract: Current estimates of goose population sizes in western Europe, a gap analysis and an assessment of trendsAktuella skattningar av gåsbeståndens storlek i västra Europa, analys av kunskapsluckor och utvärdering av trender

Cited by 160 publications

References 9 publications

Serological and virological survey and resighting of marked wild geese in Germany

Serological and virological survey and resighting of marked wild geese in Germany

Long-term trends, total numbers and species richness of increasing waterbird populations at sites on the edge of their winter range: cold-weather refuge sites are more important than protected sites

Making do with less: must sparse data preclude informed harvest strategies for European waterbirds?

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