Current estimates of goose population sizes in western Europe, a gap analysis and an assessment of trendsAktuella skattningar av gåsbeståndens storlek i västra Europa, analys av kunskapsluckor och utvärdering av trender

The consequences of climate change for bird populations have received much attention in recent decades, especially amongst cavity-nesting songbirds, yet little has been written on ducks (Anatidae) despite these being major elements of wetland diversity and important quarry species. This paper reviews the major known consequences of climate change for birds in general, and relates these to the limited information available specifically for ducks. Climate change can influence migration distance and phenology, potentially affecting patterns of mortality, as well as distribution and reproductive success in ducks. Studies addressing effects of climate change are, however, restricted to very few duck species, including mallard Anas platyrhynchos and common eider Somateria mollissima. Shifts in winter duck distributions have been observed, whereas the mismatch hypothesis (mistiming between the periods of peak energy requirements for young and the peak of seasonal food availability) has received limited support with regard to ducks. We propose a range of monitoring initiatives, including population surveys, breeding success monitoring schemes and individual duck marking, which should later be integrated through population modelling and adaptive management to fill these gaps.

Tracking seasonally changing resources is regarded as a widespread proximate mechanism underpinning animal migration. Migrating herbivores, for example, are hypothesized to track seasonal foliage dynamics over large spatial scales. Previous investigations of this green wave hypothesis involved few species and limited geographical extent, and used conventional correlation that cannot disentangle alternative correlated effects. Here, we introduce stochastic simulations to test this hypothesis using 222 individual spring migration episodes of 14 populations of ten species of geese, swans and dabbling ducks throughout Europe, East Asia, and North America. We find that the green wave cannot be considered a ubiquitous driver of herbivorous waterfowl spring migration, as it explains observed migration patterns of only a few grazing populations in specific regions. We suggest that ecological barriers and particularly human disturbance likely constrain the capacity of herbivorous waterfowl to track the green wave in some regions, highlighting key challenges in conserving migratory birds.

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Summary1. Conservation and management of migratory waterbirds use flyway populations as the basic unit, and knowledge of the delineation, rate of exchange and gene flow between populations is fundamental. However, for the majority of global flyway populations, information is too fragmentary to address connectivity between populations and, hence, insufficient to inform management. 2. We investigated the demographic connectivity between the eastern (breeding in Svalbard and wintering in Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium) and western (breeding in Greenland or Iceland and wintering in Britain) flyway populations of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus based on resightings of marked geese from both populations. Previous genetic analyses suggested a modest gene flow between the two populations. 3. Capture-recapture analysis conservatively estimated that mean annual movement probabilities were low (eastern to western population: 0Á071%, 95% CI = 0Á033-0Á15%; western to eastern: 0Á076%, 95% CI = 0Á031-0Á18%). Movement probability from eastern to western flyway populations increased in years with high snow cover in the southernmost winter range in Belgium. Life histories of exchanged individuals from eastern to western (32 different individuals during 1988-2010) revealed that the majority entered Britain via Belgium and the Netherlands during winter; some returned to the eastern population via Belgium and/or the Netherlands, others moved northwards in Britain during the spring and appear to have migrated directly from Britain (western population) to Norway (eastern population). None of the birds from the eastern population emigrated permanently, but some individuals turned up in Britain in consecutive years. Out of nine individuals switching from western to eastern flyway populations, three returned to Britain; the others were not subsequently resighted. An alternative winter strategy and spring flyway over Britain to Norway is suggested, used by hundreds to thousands of eastern birds, particularly following severe winters. Thus, the two populations currently appear to be demographically closed; low genetic connectivity probably reflects dispersal over longer time. 4. Synthesis and applications. Current initiatives to internationally manage the eastern population of pink-footed geese do not need to consider net immigration in predictive harvest models. For waterbirds in general, a targeted approach to evaluate connectivity, using classic marking studies in combination with molecular methods and focussed sampling on breeding grounds, is recommended to better underpin management decisions at population levels.