Current issues in and an emerging method for flood frequency analysis under changing climate

Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, Kei; Trinh, T.; Ercan, Ali; Darama, Yakup; Carr, K. J.

doi:10.3178/hrl.11.1

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…First, both approaches basically utilize observations, so their estimates strongly depend on the quality and availability of observations. Second, these two approaches were developed on the basis of the assumption of stationarity (Kavvas et al, ; World Meteorological Organization, ), which means that they are unable to take the impacts of climate change into consideration in the estimation of the extreme flood or precipitation. Because no observations are available for the future, these traditional approaches may not be appropriate to estimate the extremes for the future under a changing climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physically based maximum precipitation estimation under future climate change conditions

Ishida

Kavvas

Chen³

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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Estimation of the extreme precipitation over a target watershed under a changing climate would be necessary to design safe large hydraulic structures. For this purpose, the maximum precipitation (MP) estimation approach was applied to the American River Watershed (ARW) in Northern California under several future climate conditions over 90 water years . These future climate conditions were obtained using 13 future climate projections from two general circulation models (ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four future climate scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1). A total of 1,170 future projected severe storm events (90 years × 13 projections) were selected with respect to the 72-hr basin-average precipitation over the ARW. The 72-hr basin-average precipitation for each of the selected severe storm events was maximized over the ARW by horizontally shifting the atmospheric boundary conditions of a regional atmospheric model in order to optimize the path of the storm system that corresponded to the particular event. After maximization, the MP estimates, which are the largest precipitation depths among the maximized results, were obtained as 836.7 mm for the early half-century period (2010-2054) and 1,056.5 mm for the late half-century period .

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physically based maximum precipitation estimation under future climate change conditions

Ishida

Kavvas

Chen³

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In many cases, the current practice for quantifying change for floodplain management is based on an assumption of stationarity (Te Linde, Bubeck, Dekkers, De Moel, & Aerts, 2011), which essentially assumes unchanging precipitation conditions (e.g., historic conditions are representative of future conditions) or a nominal change in precipitation utilising a change factor (Bouwer, Bubeck, & Aerts, 2010;Löschner et al, 2016). However, it is becoming increasingly accepted that precipitation should be viewed as a nonstationary parameter in flood management (Gilroy & McCuen, 2012;Kavvas et al, 2017;Merz et al, 2014). Systematic approaches (e.g., multimodel, multiscale) to evaluate climate change projections are necessary to consider nonstationarity in future flood management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods

Feng

Rakowski

McPherson

et al. 2018

J Flood Risk Management

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Nonstationarities in both climate and socioeconomic systems play a role in flood risk. Based on a data‐driven case study in an urbanised watershed subjected to nonstationary factors in climate (rain, snow, and rain on snow) and socioeconomic conditions (e.g., built environment market changes), a multiscale, multimodel approach was adopted to develop local‐scale flood hazard predictions and an analytical framework was developed to quantify the associated flood risk. The case study shows that socioeconomic development can have a comparable contribution as climate variability when evaluating the expected annual damage. The relative contributions from socioeconomic development, in some cases, do not necessarily compound the risk, but can, in fact, act as a mitigating factor in annualised risk. Timelines of risk management planning are an important factor to consider. Socioeconomic factors such as market value can produce nonlinear and reversed trends in flood impact assessments within the 10‐year time frame. Furthermore, the nonstationarity of climate and development conditions together was shown to cause up to 43% of the variation in risk estimates and up to 70% of the variation in the benefit–cost effectiveness.

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“…A fundamental consideration for project design is the uncertainty of future system performance given future climate uncertainty, therefore, IRR estimates will necessarily have estimates of uncertainty that associate with the range of future climate projection, which investors should recognize and understand. The current state-of-the-art in hydraulic design is to use ensemble climate projections to analyze expected performance and variability [31,32]. A key hypothesis with respect to DWH design, and its bond value and risk management proposition is that the higher the degree of climate impact, the greater the system benefit as this class of infrastructure is designed specifically to modulate climate impacts.…”

Section: Monitoring and Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financing High Performance Climate Adaptation in Agriculture: Climate Bonds for Multi-Functional Water Harvesting Infrastructure on the Canadian Prairies

Lazurko¹,

Venema

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:International capital markets are responding to the global challenge of climate change, including through the use of labeled green and climate bonds earmarked for infrastructure projects associated with de-carbonization and to a lesser extent, projects that increase resilience to the impacts of climate change. The potential to apply emerging climate bond certification standards to agricultural water management projects in major food production regions is examined with respect to a specific example of multi-functional distributed water harvesting on the Canadian Prairies, where climate impacts are projected to be high. The diverse range of co-benefits is examined using an ecosystem service lens, and they contribute to the overall value proposition of the infrastructure bond. Certification of a distributed water harvesting infrastructure bond under the Climate Bond Standard water criteria is feasible given climate bond issue precedents. The use of ecosystem service co-benefits as additional investment criteria are recommended as relevant bond certification standards continue to evolve.

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Current issues in and an emerging method for flood frequency analysis under changing climate

Cited by 10 publications

References 11 publications

Physically based maximum precipitation estimation under future climate change conditions

Physically based maximum precipitation estimation under future climate change conditions

A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods

Financing High Performance Climate Adaptation in Agriculture: Climate Bonds for Multi-Functional Water Harvesting Infrastructure on the Canadian Prairies

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