Current Wildfire Risk Status and Forecast in Chile

Soto, Miguel Castillo; Julio-Alvear, Guillermo; Salinas, Roberto Garfias

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-410434-1.00004-x

Cited by 16 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…In Australia, more than 27 million hectares were affected in September 2019, with the start of the fire season being much earlier compared to previous years [ 18 ]. Although more than 90% of forest fires worldwide are related to anthropogenic causes, climatic factors have intensified the spread and destructive power of wildfire events [ 19 , 20 , 21 ]. These climatic factors correspond primarily to high summer temperatures and reduced levels of precipitation, resulting in long drought periods that decrease the water content of plants [ 20 , 21 , 22 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As wildland fires are a common threat during the summer season, there is a need to address and investigate this environmental challenge. The regions most affected by forest fires are located in the central and southern regions of the country, which have a Mediterranean climate characterized by periods of intense rain during the winter and very dry summers [ 19 ]. The largest and most damaging forest fires in the history of Chile took place in the period 2017–2018.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Leaf Thermal and Chemical Properties as Natural Drivers of Plant Flammability of Native and Exotic Tree Species of the Valparaíso Region, Chile

Guerrero

Hernández

Toledo

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Forest fires are one of the main environmental threats in Chile. Fires in this Mediterranean climate region frequently affect native forests and exotic plantations, including in several cases urban and rural settlements. Considering the scarcity of information regarding the fire response dynamics of tree species that are frequently affected by fires, this study aims to establish a flammability classification according to the evolution of the fire initiation risk presented by the most affected forest species in the Valparaíso region. Three exotic species, Eucalyptus globulus, Pinus radiata, and Acacia dealbata, and two native species, Cryptocarya alba and Quillaja saponaria, were studied. Flammability assays indicate that E. globulus, A. dealbata, and C. alba are extremely flammable, whereas P. radiata and Q. saponaria are flammable. Furthermore, E. globulus and A. dealbata have the highest heating values while Q. saponaria has the lowest values. The extreme flammability of E. globulus, A. dealbata, and C. alba indicates a high susceptibility to ignite. Furthermore, the high heat of combustion of E. globulus and A. dealbata can be associated with a high energy release, increasing the risk of fires spreading. In contrast, Q. saponaria has the lowest predisposition to ignite and capacity to release heat. Accordingly, this work shows that all studied tree species contain organic metabolites that are potentially flammable (sesquiterpenes, aliphatic hydrocarbons, alcohol esters, ketones, diterpenes, and triterpenes) and can be considered as drivers of flammability in vegetation. Finally, these preliminary results will aid in the construction of more resilient landscapes in the near future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Leaf Thermal and Chemical Properties as Natural Drivers of Plant Flammability of Native and Exotic Tree Species of the Valparaíso Region, Chile

Guerrero

Hernández

Toledo

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…In the case of Rodelillo, we can hypothesize that the local climate is greatly influencing the results obtained; this series was divided into two parts, which showed homogeneous results for the three different types of windows, that is, if the first segment of Rodelillo for the 1 year window was stable, the second was, too. This area is in the central zone of Chile and both the central and central-southern zones of Chile (32°-43°S) concentrate most of the wildfire activity in the country (Soto et al, 2015;Urrutia-Jalabert et al, 2018). Data from Rodelillo Meteorological Station located in the Valparaiso region reported daily maximum temperatures and thresholds (90 %) of heat waves in Chile during , 2018(Guerrero et al, 2021.…”

Section: Nonlinear Analysis and Oni Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Coastal Temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events in the Eastern South Paciﬁc

Rojo-Garibaldi

Contreras-López

Giannerini

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. We investigate whether there are correlations between temperatures on the Eastern South Paciﬁc coast, inﬂuenced by the Humboldt Current System, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using a set of 16 oceanic and atmospheric temperature time series from Chilean coastal stations distributed between 18° and 45° S. Spectral analysis indicates periodicities that can be related to both internal and external forcing, involving not only ENSO, but also the Paciﬁc Decadal Oscillation, the Southern Annual Mode, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the lunar nodal cycle. We carry out a nonlinear time series analysis. An asymptotic neural network test for chaos based on the largest global Lyapunov exponent indicates that the temperature dynamics along the Chilean coast is not chaotic. We calculate local Lyapunov exponents that characterize the short-term stability of the series. Using a cross entropy test, we ﬁnd that just two stations in northern Chile, one oceanic, Iquique, and one atmospheric, Arica, present a signiﬁcant positive correlation of local Lyapunov exponents with ENSO, with Iquique being the station that displays very particular regional characteristics. This work, having a large-scale study area and using time series from hitherto unused sources (naval records), reveals the nonlinear dynamics of climate variability in Chile.

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“…The modeling effort has not focused on WUI fires. Finally, researchers in Chile have developed KITRAL, a firefighting decision support system that includes limited wildfire modeling capabilities [55–56].…”

Section: South American Viewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summary of workshop large outdoor fires and the built environment

Manzello

Blanchi

Gollner

et al. 2018

Fire Safety Journal

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Large outdoor fires present a risk to the built environment. Wildfires that spread into communities, referred to as Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) fires, have destroyed communities throughout the world, and are an emerging problem in fire safety science. Other examples are large urban fires including those that have occurred after earthquakes. Research into large outdoor fires, and how to potentially mitigate the loss of structures in such fires, lags other areas of fire safety science research. At the same time, common characteristics between fire spread in WUI fires and urban fires have not been fully exploited. In this paper, an overview of the large outdoor fire risk to the built environment from each region is presented. Critical research needs for this problem in the context offire safety science are provided. The present paper seeks to develop the foundation for an international research needs roadmap to reduce the risk of large outdoor fires to the built environment.

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Current Wildfire Risk Status and Forecast in Chile

Cited by 16 publications

References 1 publication

Leaf Thermal and Chemical Properties as Natural Drivers of Plant Flammability of Native and Exotic Tree Species of the Valparaíso Region, Chile

Leaf Thermal and Chemical Properties as Natural Drivers of Plant Flammability of Native and Exotic Tree Species of the Valparaíso Region, Chile

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Coastal Temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events in the Eastern South Paciﬁc

Summary of workshop large outdoor fires and the built environment

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