Cyclic hantavirus epidemics in humans — Predicted by rodent host dynamics

Abstract

Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, and understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics still poses unsolved challenges. Here we studied the three-level relationships between the human disease nephropathia epidemica (NE), its etiological agent Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) and the rodent host of the virus, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). A large and long-term data set (14 years, 2583 human NE cases and 4751 trapped bank voles) indicates that the number of human infections shows both seasonal and multi-annual fluctuations, is influenced by the phase of vole cycle and time of the year, and follows vole abundance with a lag of a few months. Our results suggest that although human hantavirus epidemics are preceded by high sero prevalence in the host population, they may be accurately predicted solely by the population dynamics of the carrier species, even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host populations.

Declines in large wildlife increase landscape-level prevalence of rodent-borne disease in Africa

“…There is theoretical support and empirical evidence of a negative correlation between large wildlife loss and increased rodent-borne disease risk (26,27,38). However, we largely lack experimental data that document if and how the cascading effects of large wildlife loss have an impact on rodent-borne zoonoses via susceptible host regulation.…”

Hantavirus infections in fluctuating host populations: the role of maternal antibodies

“…Infected females commonly transfer maternal antibodies (MatAbs) to their offspring, providing temporary protection against the infection(s) the mother has encountered (Grindstaff et al 2003;Bouliner & Staszewski 2008;Hasselquist & Nilsson 2009). Hantavirus-infected female rodents transfer MatAbs to their offspring in utero and during lactation (Dohmae et al 1993), and the temporary immunity against PUUV lasts for up to 80 days in bank voles (Gavrilovskaya et al 1990;Kallio et al 2006a), a relatively long period when compared with their average lifespan, three to five months (Innes & Millar 1994). The presence of MatAbs among young individuals has been acknowledged in several hantavirus studies (e.g.…”

Serological Survey of Rodent-Borne Viruses in Finnish Field Voles

“…Of taxonomic groups, rodents are considered one of the largest sources of zoonotic agents (Luis et al 2013). In northern Europe, rodent populations display multiannual, high-amplitude, cyclic density fluctuations (Hansson and Henttonen 1985, Norrdahl 1995, Korpela et al 2013, which can be correlated with the human incidence of zoonotic diseases they spread (for example, Kallio et al 2009, Olsson et al 2009). During density peaks, field voles (Microtus agrestis) become one of the most abundant rodent species in northern Europe (Hanski and Henttonen 1996), yet very little is known of the viruses they carry.…”