Cyclical fluctuations of economic growth and monetary policy in Nigeria: does fiscal policy also matter?

Olakojo, Solomon Abayomi; Onanuga, Abayomi Toyin; Onanuga, Olaronke

doi:10.1080/02589001.2020.1822992

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…For the issue of growth in debt, studies have confirmed the Keynesian notion that for economic progress, it is necessary to have a certain amount of debt, while others say that money owing in any form is harmful to any country's development ambitions (Bhowmik et al 2022;Dupor and Guerrero 2017;Faria-E-Castro 2018). In addition, studies like Baker et al (2016) and Olakojo et al (2021) found conflicting results regarding the growth-corruption theory. A summary of essential literature on the growth-debt-corruption argument is provided below.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Assessing the nexus between fiscal policy, COVID-19, and economic growth

Wang

Gao

Chen

et al. 2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Assessing the nexus between fiscal policy, COVID-19, and economic growth

Wang

Gao

Chen

et al. 2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…The risk of local debt is positively correlated with the CCB risk-taking, while the local economic growth significantly reduces the risk of CCBs. (2) The PVAR results show that due to the dynamic adjustment of CCBs when they perceive external risks, the impact of CIB risks temporarily reduces the risk-taking of CCBs in the short term, but it still increases the risk-taking of CCBs in the medium and long term. In contrast, the impact of CCB risk-taking reduces the risk of CIBs in both short and long term.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable development of local debt, banks and the economy, the following three suggestions are worth learning from: (1) fiscal countercyclical control should be timely and appropriate, and the CCBs should fully consider the countercyclical risk in the loans offered for infrastructure. (2) The diversification of capital sources of CICs can effectively spread risks so as to avoid excessive accumulation of risks in banks. (3) Governments should control the scale of local government debt to ensure the effect of countercyclical regulation and prevent systemic financial risks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2020, China's local government bond issuance reached 6.44 trillion yuan, grew 47.7% year on year, and the government debt ratio and macro leverage ratio reached 45.8% and 270.1% respectively (data source: Ministry of Finance, Wind and National Institution of Finance and Development), both record highs. The countercyclical regulation of continuously expanding fiscal deficit is bound to have an impact on financial stability [1], which in turn restricts the effect of countercyclical finance [2]. In addition, excess debt will lead to a significantly low economic growth rate, weaken the solvency of local governments [3,4], and then affect the banking system, further increasing the factors of financial instability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Fluctuation, Local Government Bond Risk and Risk-Taking of City Commercial Banks

Zheng

Chen

Dong³

2021

Sustainability

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Countercyclical fiscal regulation can mitigate economic risk, but this is bound to increase the scale of local government debt during an economic downturn, and then spread risk to the banking sector, forming potential financial instability factors. We extracted the three most important variables in this process: economic fluctuation, local debt risk and bank risk-taking to build an econometric model and found that: (1) both economic fluctuations and local government bond risks have a significant impact on bank risk-taking, which is negatively correlated with local economic growth, while the increase of local government bond risks tends to increase bank risk-taking in the long run; (2) the impact of local government debt risk significantly increases the loans of city commercial banks flowing into the construction industry. Therefore, the impact of local government bond risk on city commercial banks is concentrated in the impact on their construction loans. This study has an important reference value for timely and moderate countercyclical regulation, preventing local debt risk from spreading to banks, constructing a sustainable local government−bank ecology, and promoting sustainable economic development.

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“…CK Leong combines the Bayesian discrimination method with the neural network model to obtain a Bayesian network model. By optimizing the truncated samples and sample imbalance of the model in credit risk assessment, the model accuracy and model sensitivity are improved [10][11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Commercial Bank Risk Early Warning Model Based on Dynamic Parameter Optimization Neural Network

Wang

2022

Journal of Mathematics

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Based on the background of big data, it is necessary to study the dynamic parameter optimization of the commercial bank risk model neural network. Several customer information attribute groups that have an impact on loan customer rating are selected, and the existing customer data are used to train the network model of the attribute group and customer default rate, so that it can predict the customer’s default rate according to the newly entered loan customer information and then predict whether the customer defaults. Based on a neural network model, this article constructs the credit risk early warning model of science and technology bank, makes an empirical test, and puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to control the credit risk of bank. This article establishes a warning model of commercial banks by using a neural network. Taking the bank as an empirical sample, the constructed neural network model is used. Finally, the error of the model is small and the early warning results are satisfactory. The experimental results show that the proposed risk early warning model can accurately predict the customer default rate, so as to warn the defaulting customers. In the whole process, there are few human intervention factors and a high degree of intelligence, which reduces the operational risk.

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Cyclical fluctuations of economic growth and monetary policy in Nigeria: does fiscal policy also matter?

Cited by 6 publications

References 22 publications

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Assessing the nexus between fiscal policy, COVID-19, and economic growth

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Assessing the nexus between fiscal policy, COVID-19, and economic growth

Economic Fluctuation, Local Government Bond Risk and Risk-Taking of City Commercial Banks

Research on Commercial Bank Risk Early Warning Model Based on Dynamic Parameter Optimization Neural Network

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