Dam Hydrological Risk and the Design Flood Under Non-stationary Conditions

Isensee, Leandro José; Pinheiro, Adílson; Detzel, Daniel Henrique Marco

doi:10.1007/s11269-021-02798-3

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The results of the other two water sources with decreased trends are also supported by previous studies (Chen et al, 2007;. In short, before conducting a hydrological frequency analysis, the non-stationarity of the runoff series must be considered in the planning and construction of water infrastructures including interbasin water transfer projects, reservoirs, and groundwater projects (Dong and Zhang, 2014;Isensee et al, 2021).…”

Section: Trend and Change Points Analysissupporting

confidence: 74%

Dryness–Wetness Encounter Probabilities’ Analysis for Lake Ecological Water Replenishment Considering Non-Stationarity Effects

Lü

Zhou

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Ecological water replenishment (EWR) via interbasin water transfer projects has been regarded as a critical solution to reducing the risk of lake shrinkage and wetland degradation. The hydrological conditions of EWR water sources do not change synchronously, which may have an impact on the transferable water. Based on the GAMLSS model and the multivariate Copula model, this work presents a research approach for EWR via interbasin water transfer projects that can capture the non-stationarity of the runoff series and the frequency of dryness–wetness encounters, as well as speculates on various scenarios throughout the project operation phase. We present a case study on the Baiyangdian Lake, acting as the largest freshwater wetland in North China, which has suffered from severe degradation during the past decades and deserves thorough ecological restoration. The GAMLSS model was used to examine the non-stationarity characteristics of EWR water sources including the Danjiangkou Reservoir (DJK), the Huayuankou reach of the Yellow River (HYK), and upstream reservoirs (UR). The multivariate Copula model was implemented to evaluate the synchronous–asynchronous characteristics for hydrological probabilities for the multiple water sources. Results show that 1) significant non-stationarity has been detected for all water sources. Particularly, a significant decreasing trend has been found in UR and HYK. 2) The non-stationary model with time as the explanatory variable is more suitable for the runoff series of DJK, HYK, and UR. Under the non-stationary framework, the wet–dry classification of runoff series is completely changed. 3) Whether the bivariate or trivariate combination types, the asynchronous probability among the three water resources is over 0.6 except DJK-HYK, which indicates the complementary relationship. Multiple water resources are necessary for EWR. What is more, during a dry year of UR, the conditional probability that both DJK and HYK are in a dry year is 0.234. To alleviate the problem of not having enough water, some additional water resources and an acceptable EWR plan are required.

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Section: Trend and Change Points Analysissupporting

confidence: 74%

Dryness–Wetness Encounter Probabilities’ Analysis for Lake Ecological Water Replenishment Considering Non-Stationarity Effects

Lü

Zhou

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…A vazão de projeto de barragens pode ser estimada utilizando distribuições probabilísticas em series temporais de valores máximos anuais (Isensee et al, 2021). Essa vazão pode ser determinada através da estimativa da probabilidade de ocorrência ou recorrência de eventos extremos (Santos et al, 2014), por meio da fixação de um tempo de retorno (TR) (Cassalho et al, 2017).…”

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Vazão de projeto de barragens sob condições não estacionárias

Isensee

Pinheiro

Detzel

2021

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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Tendências crescentes nas estatísticas de vazões dos rios têm sido detectadas em séries temporais no Brasil e no mundo. Devido as tendências, especialmente nas vazões máximas, há preocupação de que estruturas hidráulicas, como barragens, possam estar com sua segurança comprometida. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste estudo é estimar a vazão de projeto de uma série temporal não estacionaria para baixa probabilidades (TR milenar), comparando seu valor com a vazão de projeto do vertedouro da barragem existente. A determinação de uma variável para baixa probabilidades, como a vazão de projeto, utiliza métodos com diversas aplicações nas ciências ambientais, como mapas de inundação e curvas intensidade, duração e frequência. Este estudo foi aplicado na estação fluviométrica Abelardo Luz. A barragem analisada foi a PCH Ludesa, localizada no Estado de Santa Catarina. Doze séries temporais de máximos diários anuais foram construídas, variando o ano hidrológico. Os testes estatísticos Mann-Kendall e Pettit foram aplicados para avaliar a estacionariedade. Aplicou-se as distribuições GEV e Gumbel para estimar a vazão de projeto teórica, comparando-a com a vazão de projeto real. Os resultados indicam que as séries temporais geradas são não estacionárias, com pontos de mudança detectados. O modelo GEV se adequou melhor as séries temporais, com parâmetro forma positivo. Em relação a vazão de projeto, dependendo do modelo considerado, o fator de segurança dessa barragem apresentou redução. Percebeu-se também que a qualidade dos dados, bem como seu comprimento, são fatores decisivos para estimar a vazão de projeto com menor grau de incerteza. Dams design flow estimation using non-stationary time series A B S T R A C TIncreasing trends in streamflow statistics have been detected in time series in Brazil and worldwide. Due to trends, especially at maximum streamflow, there is concern that hydraulic structures, such as dams, may have their safety compromised. Therefore, the objective of this study is to estimate the design flow of a non-stationary time series for low probabilities (millennial TR), comparing its value with the design flow of the existing dam spillway. The determination of a variable for low probabilities, such as the project flow, uses methods with several applications in environmental sciences, such as flood maps and intensity, duration, and frequency curves. This study was applied at the gauging station Abelardo Luz and PCH Ludesa dam, located in the state of Santa Catarina. Twelve time series of annual maximum daily streamflow were built, varying the hydrological year. Mann-Kendall and Pettit statistical tests were applied to assess stationarity. The GEV and Gumbel distributions were applied to estimate the theoretical design flow, comparing it with the actual design flow. The results indicate that the time series generated are non-stationary, with change-points detected. The GEV model was better suited to the time series, with a positive shape parameter. In relation to the project flow, depending on the model considered, the safety factor of this dam decreased. It was also noticed that the quality of the data, as well as its length, are decisive factors for estimating the design flow with a lower degree of uncertainty.Keywords: Dam safety, design flow, stationarity, maximum streamflow time series.

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Impacts of climate and reservoirs on the downstream design flood hydrograph: a case study of Yichang Station

Xiong

Zha

et al. 2022

Nat Hazards

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Dam Hydrological Risk and the Design Flood Under Non-stationary Conditions

Cited by 8 publications

References 29 publications

Dryness–Wetness Encounter Probabilities’ Analysis for Lake Ecological Water Replenishment Considering Non-Stationarity Effects

Dryness–Wetness Encounter Probabilities’ Analysis for Lake Ecological Water Replenishment Considering Non-Stationarity Effects

Vazão de projeto de barragens sob condições não estacionárias

Impacts of climate and reservoirs on the downstream design flood hydrograph: a case study of Yichang Station

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