Impacts of climate and reservoirs on the downstream design flood hydrograph: a case study of Yichang Station

Li, Rongrong; Xiong, Lihua; Zha, Xini; Xiong, Bin; Liu, Han; Chen, Jie; Zeng, Ling; Li, Wenbin

doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05370-3

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…In the reservoir impact analysis of this study, the results of the hydrological frequency analysis considering reservoir impacts have obtained better simulations (Figures 8, 9) and the change-point results correspond to the time of completion of large reservoirs in the basin. These results demonstrated that the hydrological series in the basin is mainly influenced by the operation of large reservoirs in the Yangtze River basin Li H. et al, 2020;Li et al, 2022;Zhang et al, 2022).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 74%

“…The nonstationary hydrological frequency analysis is usually based on the covariate analysis, that is, the probability distribution parameters are expressed as functions of covariates (Rigby and Stasinopoulos, 2005), so it is critical to accurately capture the driving factors of hydrological variables (Jiang et al, 2019;Xiong et al, 2020;Li et al, 2022). For river basins that are greatly disturbed by humans, the hydrological variables (such as water level, water flow, sediment concentration) in the river channel are significantly altered by human activities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For river basins that are greatly disturbed by humans, the hydrological variables (such as water level, water flow, sediment concentration) in the river channel are significantly altered by human activities. Among them, the reservoir regulation has a conspicuous impact on the downstream hydrological variables (Graf, 1999;Yang et al, 2002;Batalla et al, 2004;Yang et al, 2006;Yang et al, 2008;Döll et al, 2009;Rossi et al, 2009;Biemans et al, 2011;Zhang et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2018;Xiong et al, 2019;Li R. et al, 2020;Li et al, 2022), especially the spread of water flow and the sediment transport from upstream to downstream (Figure 1). Before the reservoir construction, the water flow and sediment in the river channel spread freely downstream without hindrance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2014;Jiang et al, 2015;Xiong et al, 2020;Li et al, 2022), in which distribution parameters are expressed as the function of covariates/ explanatory variables. In this study, Weibull (WEI), Gumbel (GU), Gamma (GA), Logistic (LO), Normal (NO), Lognormal (LNO), Generalized extreme value (GEV), and Pearson type III (P-III) distribution are used as candidate distributions to fit hydrological series, the location parameter (μ t ) and scale parameter (σ t ) of the distribution are considered to change with the covariates.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream hydrological frequency based on a general rainfall-reservoir index

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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When large reservoirs are built and put into operation, the downstream hydrological processes will be altered significantly, and ecology and agricultural irrigation water of the basin will be affected to some extent. The reservoir index (RI) and the sediment trapping efficiency (TE) of reservoirs are defined to quantify the reservoir impacts on the water flow and sediment by considering the static storage capacity. However, the regulating effect of reservoirs on hydrological variables is not only related to static storage capacity, but also to dynamic reservoir operation. Thus, in this paper, a general rainfall-reservoir index (GRRI) is developed by coupling reservoir regulation indicator (RR, including RI and TE) and effective rainfall affecting the dynamic operation of reservoirs, and the GRRI is used as the covariate to carry out the nonstationary frequency analysis of flood (Q) and annual sediment load (S) at Gaochang (GC) station in Min River, Wulong (WL) station in Wu River, Ankang (AK), Huangjiagang (HJG) and Huangzhuang (HZ) station in Han River, and Cuntan (CT) station on the main stream of the upper Yangtze River. It is found that Q and S at six stations have obvious changes induced by reservoirs, the mean of Q decreases by 22.8%–60.6%, and S drops by 47.7%–89.5% after the change-point of time series. The nonstationary probability distribution models with GRRI as the covariate have better fitting effects than nonstationary models with RR as the covariate. With the incorporation of the impacts of effective rainfall, the GRRI can more accurately capture the occurrence of nonstationarity in the downstream hydrological frequency. These results might be helpful for exploring the impact mechanism of the reservoir regulation on the downstream hydrological variables as well as ecological management of basin.

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Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream hydrological frequency based on a general rainfall-reservoir index

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Robustness of design flood estimates under nonstationary conditions: parameter sensitivity perspective

Xiong,

Zheng,

et al. 2024

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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The changing frequency of flooding in global watersheds, driven by various human and natural factors like land use/cover changes and global warming, necessitates innovative approaches in flood frequency analysis and risk assessment. Nonetheless, the reliability of nonstationary frequency analysis models remains a concern given challenges in accurately measuring the uncertainty introduced by these methods and the impact on design flood values. In this study, deviation-based differential sensitivity indices, including single-parameter (SDDSI) and entire-parameter (EDDSI) measures were developed to assess the influence of parameter uncertainty in nonstationary models using Bayesian statistics and "equivalent reliability" nonstationary design. The Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River which is experiencing both climate change and heavy impact of human activities, is chosen to be the study area to investigate the impact of precipitation change and land use change on nonstationary flood frequency. Results show that in the One-At-A-Time (OAT) sensitivity analysis under a small uncertainty scenario (SUS) for parameter inputs, the shape parameter stands out as the most influential factor (SDDSI_SUS = 0.347) affecting the 100-year design flood in the Stationary Generalized Extreme Value (SGEV) model. For the Non-Stationary GEV (NGEV) models, the influence of this parameter is less pronounced, with SDDSI_SUS values of 0.095 and 0.093 for the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Instead, attention turns to the regression coefficient of the grassland area, associated with the GEV scale parameter. In global sensitivity analysis under the posterior uncertainty scenario (PUS) for parameter inputs, the EDDSI_PUS values for SGEV, NGEV_SSP126, and NGEV_SSP585 models were 0.52, 1.41, and 1.30, respectively, inferring heightened sensitivity of NGEV models to perturbations from entire parameters. It is anticipated that incorporating additional evidence, such as historical flood data, is essential for accurate nonstationary hydrological design to mitigating the influence of parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity indices in this study provide significant insights for assessing the robustness of nonstationary hydrological design in flood risk management and applications.

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Spatio-temporal changes in daily extreme precipitation for the Lancang–Mekong River Basin

Zeng

Chen

et al. 2022

Nat Hazards

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Impacts of climate and reservoirs on the downstream design flood hydrograph: a case study of Yichang Station

Cited by 9 publications

References 48 publications

Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream hydrological frequency based on a general rainfall-reservoir index

Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream hydrological frequency based on a general rainfall-reservoir index

Robustness of design flood estimates under nonstationary conditions: parameter sensitivity perspective

Spatio-temporal changes in daily extreme precipitation for the Lancang–Mekong River Basin

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