DAMPAK PEMBIAYAAN DEFISIT ANGGARAN DENGAN UTANG LUAR NEGERI TERHADAP INFLASI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: Studi Kasus Indonesia Tahun 1970-2003

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to find the effect of budget deficit with foreign loans as source of funding on inflation and economic growth. This study focuses on transmission mechanism of budget deficit funding effects on inflation and economic growth. We use a specific simultaneous macroeconomic model which includes 17 behavioral equations and 18 identity equations with 6 blocks in this study, Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) method is employed to estimate the behavioral equations in the model. This study use Indonesia secondary economic data from 1970 to 2003. Econometric tests are performed to produce BLUE estimator. This study also use stochastic simulation with 10000 replications to simulate policy.The results show that using foreign loan to fund budget deficit increases both economic growth and inflation. This result is also supported by the simulation results which show that increase in the proceeds of new foreign loan increases reserves which in turn increase primary money/money supply/monetary base. Interaction of monetary base with money multiplier then increases price level. increase in capital in flow from increase in foreign loan increases government spending which also increases government spending increases in the government spending then add to government capital stock so that economic growth also increases.

Analisis Komparatif Indikator Penerapan Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia Ditinjau dari Perspektif Ekonomi Islam

“…Sedangkan menurut Basri (2004) 22 , dengan memakai three model, indikator pengukuran utang luar negeri adalah sebagai berikut:…”

Pengaruh Pembiayaan Defisit Anggaran Terhadap Inflasi Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Suatu Simulasi Model Ekonomi Makro Indonesia 1970 – 2003

“…Rumusan masalah akan dijawab dengan melakukan simulasi model ekonomi makro pembiayaan defisit anggaran yang telah dispesifikasikan oleh Waluyo (2005). Model Waluyo (2005) mengadopsi model yang telah ada yaitu: Model Chantrasmi (1990), Model Tokunaga (1997), Model Soelistyo et al (1998), Model Joseph et al (1999), Model Gunardi (2000), Model Choeryanto (2003, dan Model Saleh (2004). Model yang digunakan bersifat small open macroeconomic model yang menitikberatkan pada sisi keuangan negara.…”

“…Dalam model single equation yang ditaksir dengan SYS TSLS uji statistik model yang digunakan sudah memenuhi semua asumsi Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM) (Waluyo;2005). Hasil ini akan memberikan harapan bahwa dalam model simultan yang dispesifikasikan mampu untuk memberikan hasil ramalan yang memuaskan.…”

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The objective of this research is to identify the impact of budget deficit financing on inflation and economic growth. Simulation are conducted using the small open macroeconomics model specified by Waluyo (2005) with 10.000 replication on the stochastic simulation. Using the secondary data of the Indonesian economy from 1970 to 2003, simulation results show that budget deficit financing from foreign debt and monetary policies would increase the economic growth, but inflationary.

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Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pinjaman Luar Negeri serta Imbasnya terhadap APBN

“…Penarikan pinjaman luar negeri baru akan berdampak pada meningkatnya stock pinjaman luar negeri. Peningkatan terhadap stok pinjaman luar negeri akan berdampak terhadap beban bunga dan cicilan pinjaman luar negeri (Waluyo, 2006).…”