Danish risk management plans of the EU Floods Directive

Jebens, Martin; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Piontkowitz, Thorsten

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/20160723005

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Even with the EU Flood Directive being implemented in 2007, many Danish municipalities lack explicit objectives on how to go about accomplishing this goal [32]. In January 2018, Danish lawmakers agreed on regulating the Planning Act to prevent damage caused by flooding and erosion, providing municipalities with the legal framework to begin combating SLR.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Assessment Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Denmark: A Case Study of Falster Island, Guldborgsund

2021

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Anthropogenically-induced climate change is expected to be the contributing cause of sea level rise and severe storm events in the immediate future. While Danish authorities have downscaled the future oscillation of sea level rise across Danish coast lines in order to empower the coastal municipalities, there is a need to project the local cascading effects on different sectors. Using geospatial analysis and climate change projection data, we developed a proposed workflow to analyze the impacts of sea level rise in the coastal municipalities of Guldborgsund, located in Southeastern Denmark as a case study. With current estimates of sea level rise and storm surge events, the island of Falster can expect to have up to 19% of its landmass inundated, with approximately 39% of the population experiencing sea level rise directly. Developing an analytical workflow can allow stakeholders to understand the extent of expected sea level rise and consider alternative methods of prevention at the national and local levels. The proposed approach along with the choice of data and open source tools can empower other communities at risk of sea level rise to plan their adaptation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Assessment Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Denmark: A Case Study of Falster Island, Guldborgsund

2021

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“…As each municipality in Denmark has to provide its own climate change adaptation plan by law since 2014 (Jensen et al, 2016), the legislative basis for having an appropriate plan can be ensured. In addition, the connected risk assessments to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) required ten risk areas in Denmark to prepare more concrete risk management plans in connection with flooding (Jebens et al, 2016). This has been updated in 2018, extending the old and adding new flood risk areas.…”

Section: Case Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These zones can be assumed to have particular experience and knowledge of risk management planning for natural hazards, focused on flooding. Additionally, the classification through the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) also suggested that the appointed areas are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards, so that the stakeholders have particular reason to care about the risk of compound events (Jebens et al, 2016). Moreover, the precondition that these municipalities were not otherwise interdependent nor close to each other should be met.…”

Section: Case Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Precautionary Principles of the Potential Risks of Compound Events in Danish Municipalities

Modrakowski

Nielsen

2022

Front. Clim.

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The risk of compound events describes potential weather and climate events in which the combination of multiple drivers and hazards consolidate, resulting in extreme socio-economic impacts. Compound events affecting exposed societies can therefore be deemed a crucial security risk. Designing appropriate preparation proves difficult, as compound events are rarely documented. This paper explores the understanding and practices of climate risk management related to compound events in specific Danish municipalities vulnerable to flood hazards (i.e., Odense, Hvidovre, and Vejle). These practices illuminate that different understandings of compound events steer risk attitudes and consequently decisions regarding the use of different policy instruments. Through expert interviews supported by policy documents, we found that the municipalities understand compound events as either a condition or situation and develop precautionary strategies to some extent. Depending on their respective geographical surroundings, they observe compound events either as no clear trend (Odense), a trend to be critically watched (Hvidovre), or already as a partial reality (Vejle). They perceive flood drivers and their combinations as major physical risks to which they adopt different tailor-made solutions. By choosing a bottom-up approach focusing on local governance structures, it demonstrated that the mismatch between responsibility and capacity and the ongoing separation of services related to climatic risks in the Danish municipality context need to be critically considered. The findings highlight that the complex challenge of compound events cannot be solved by one (scientific) discipline alone. Thus, the study advocates a broader inclusion of scientific practices and increased emphasis on local focus within compound event research to foster creative thinking, better preparation, and subsequently more effective management of their risks.

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“…Even though Denmark has abundant groundwater resources, some regions are experiencing pressure on groundwater due to rising temperatures and evapotranspiration [39], and the need for irrigation systems might increase in the future. Therefore, the main concern of these changes on the groundwater table on the region are on the water supply impacts they will cause, from drinking water supply to irrigation issues, while flooding risks are seen as very local hazards that will be mainly caused by heavy precipitation, cloudbursts, and coastal floods from sea level rise [40].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is especially relevant when considering that the water table rising closer to the surface would translate into a higher risk of flooding, especially in case of heavy precipitation events [29]. It is highly possible that the risk of flooding will be very local, and specific to certain events such as heavy storms events [40].…”

Section: Future Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Groundwater Level Variations in a Changing Climate: A Danish Case Study

Gonzalez

Arsanjani

2021

IJGI

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Shallow groundwater is a key resource for human activities and ecosystems, and is susceptible to alterations caused by climate change, causing negative socio-economic and environmental impacts, and increasing the need to predict the evolution of the water table. The main objective of this study is to gain insights about future water level changes based on different climate change scenarios using machine learning algorithms, while addressing the following research questions: (a) how will the water table be affected by climate change in the future based on different socio-economic pathways (SSPs)?: (b) do machine learning models perform well enough in predicting changes of the groundwater in Denmark? If so, which ML model outperforms for forecasting these changes? Three ML algorithms were used in R: artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The ML models were trained with time-series data of groundwater levels taken at wells in the Hovedstaden region, for the period 1990–2018. Several independent variables were used to train the models, including different soil parameters, topographical features and climatic variables for the time period and region selected. Results show that the RF model outperformed the other two, resulting in a higher R-squared and lower mean absolute error (MAE). The future prediction maps for the different scenarios show little variation in the water table. Nevertheless, predictions show that it will rise slightly, mostly in the order of 0–0.25 m, especially during winter. The proposed approach in this study can be used to visualize areas where the water levels are expected to change, as well as to gain insights about how big the changes will be. The approaches and models developed with this paper could be replicated and applied to other study areas, allowing for the possibility to extend this model to a national level, improving the prevention and adaptation plans in Denmark and providing a more global overview of future water level predictions to more efficiently handle future climate change scenarios.

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Danish risk management plans of the EU Floods Directive

Cited by 5 publications

References 5 publications

Impact Assessment Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Denmark: A Case Study of Falster Island, Guldborgsund

Impact Assessment Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Denmark: A Case Study of Falster Island, Guldborgsund

The Precautionary Principles of the Potential Risks of Compound Events in Danish Municipalities

Prediction of Groundwater Level Variations in a Changing Climate: A Danish Case Study

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