Computationally efficient modeling of gas turbine combustion is challenging due to the chaotic multi-scale physics and the complex non-linear interactions between acoustic, hydrodynamic, and chemical processes. A large-eddy simulation, referred to as the full order model (FOM), is performed for a gas turbine model combustor with turbulent combustion effects modeled using a flamelet-based method. Modal analysis reveals a high degree of correlation with averaged and instantaneous high-frequency particle image velocimetry fields. The dynamics of the precessing vortex core is quantitatively characterized using dynamic mode decomposition. The governing equations of the FOM are projected onto a low-dimensional linear manifold to construct a reduced-order model (ROM). A discretely-consistent least squares projection is used to guarantee global stability. The ROM provides an accurate reconstruction of the combustion dynamics within the training region, but faces a significant challenge in future state predictions. This limitation is mainly due to the increased projection error, which in turn is a direct consequence of the highly chaotic nature of the flow field, involving a wide range of dispersed coherent structures. This shortcoming is overcome using an adaptive basis method which yields accurate predictions of dynamics beyond the training region consistent with the FOM. Formal projection-based ROMs have not been applied to a problem of this scale and complexity, and achieving accurate and efficient ROMs is a grand challenge problem. A production-ready ROM method will significantly decrease the computational cost of the flame dynamics as well as the portability of this prediction to smaller-scale computers.