Dealing with Traffic Risk in Latin American Toll Roads

Carpintero, Samuel; Vassallo, José Manuel; Soliño, Antonio Sánchez

doi:10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000266

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Vassallo [45] analyzed the performance of traffic risk mitigation mechanisms awarded to highway concessions in Chile and provided guidelines on their applicability in other countries. Carpintero et al [46] also evaluated the implementation of these mechanisms on toll highways in different Latin American countries and found that they had not been very successful in reducing renegotiation rates or attracting private interest. Ex-post evaluation analysis is an approach often used by the European Union (EU), the European Investment Bank (EIB), or the World Bank to evaluate the impact of the support they provide to PPP projects (see e.g., [47][48][49]).…”

Section: Government Support: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Ex-Post Fiscal Support to PPPs Sustainable? Analysis of Government Loans Granted to Shadow-Toll Roads in Spain: A Case Study

Garrido

Vassallo

2020

Sustainability

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Budgetary constraints are prompting many governments to encourage private financing of transport infrastructure through public–private partnerships (PPPs). Fiscal support measures are often used to improve the financial feasibility of PPPs and to rebalance the economics of contracts to compensate for government-imposed changes. In the latter case, information asymmetry, political haste, and lack of competition may lead to poor government decisions in establishing support measures. Furthermore, lack of government support may lead to early termination of contracts and non-implementation of projects with high potential social benefits. This paper analyzes the awarding of subordinated public participation loans (SPPLs) to 10 brownfield shadow-toll highway PPPs in Spain after the government imposed additional works. It is hypothesized that, given the political importance of the projects and the viability problems they soon experienced, the government may not have set out the terms of SPPLs efficiently. This paper evaluates the financial and social impacts of awarding these loans to three of these projects to assess whether the government’s decision to support them was justified from a sustainable perspective. The results show that, while the government’s decision was reasonable, the design of the SPPL and its awarding conditions should be improved to ensure the public interest.

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Section: Government Support: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is Ex-Post Fiscal Support to PPPs Sustainable? Analysis of Government Loans Granted to Shadow-Toll Roads in Spain: A Case Study

Garrido

Vassallo

2020

Sustainability

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“…In the context of projects' failure and renegotiation, previous research devoted to the PPP programmes of Spain and Portugal (Vassallo et al, 2012;de los Ángeles Baeza and Vassallo, 2010;Cruz et al, 2014;Cruz and Marques, 2013), Central Europe (Carpintero, 2010;Brenck et al, 2005) and Latin America (Carpintero and Gomez-Ibanez, 2011;Carpintero and Barcham, 2012;Carpintero et al, 2014;Guasch, 2004, Guasch andStraub, 2006;Guasch et al, 2008;Guasch and Straub, 2009) identifies an array of causes including aggressive bidding and opportunism, inadequate regulation, insufficient coordination of the government, political and financial instability, poor contractual design, erroneous cost estimation, optimism bias at the anticipated traffic level, delays and cost overruns in expropriations, high tolls and negative public reaction.…”

Section: Background and Research Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is in line with Guasch's (2004) observations about cases of opportunism by newly elected governments, as well as with the experience from Portugal, where the government launched unnecessarily large infrastructure projects predicting that they would not be accountable when costly renegotiations would be required (Macário et al, 2015). In the case of Chile, in order for the Concessionaires to undertake additional investment in many of the motorway concessions, a pre-fixed amount of guaranteed revenues was determined and the duration of the renegotiated concession shifted from being fixed to being variable (Carpintero and Barcham, 2012;Carpintero et al, 2014).…”

Section: Project Scope Planning and Internal Stakeholder Coordinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of PPP road projects in Greece

Marinelli

2019

BEPAM

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore and evaluate the problems encountered by five major road projects recently implemented in Greece as public–private partnerships (PPP) and make recommendations for improvement of the relevant managerial practices and contractual clauses for the benefit of similar future projects. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative approach was adopted in this research as only senior engineers with specific managerial experience were deemed suitable for the purposes of this research. In total, 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted with CEOs of the PPPs and heads of independent engineers involved in the projects’ implementation as well as with senior officials of two Greek Ministries. Findings The experts identified different areas of weakness relevant to the revenue risks, the planning of the scope, the management of designs and legal permits as well as the toll policy selected. They also made specific recommendations for the streamlining of the relevant procedures in the future. Practical implications The experts’ opinions and recommendations constitute a solid basis for the achievement of higher efficiency in the management of future PPP projects worldwide. Originality/value This research offers a holistic perspective to PPP project management as it sheds light to the problems encountered by the Greek PPP programme as a whole and incorporates the experience gained at the contracts’ renegotiation. The research draws from the experience of experts and offers recommendations for systemic improvements which can be widely applied in any geographical context.

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“…According to Galilea and Medda (2010), Carpintero and Barcham (2012) and Beria et al (2015), the beginning of the road concession process started during the 1990s, whereby private companies were conceded to manage some roads, mainly in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe. Later on, at the end of the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, there was still no use of the risk matrix, besides the little incentive to use other revenues as a way to obtain reasonable tariffs (Carpintero & Barcham, 2012).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Optimal Time for a Road Concession Contract in Brazil

Pivatto¹,

Fernandez²,

Saulo³

et al. 2017

IJEF

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Brazil has one of the largest road networks managed under concession contracts in the world. The concessions of the Federal Concession Program are divided into three stages. The main aim of this research was to identify critical successful contracts from the Third Stage of the Concession Program. The methodology adopted follows the model proposed by Ng et al. (2007). This model verifies the probability at which the project will be successfully run within the term contract. The results showed a discrepancy between the time contractually agreed and the one simulated by the model for two of the seven contracts signed in the Third Stage of the Concession Program.

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Dealing with Traffic Risk in Latin American Toll Roads

Cited by 21 publications

References 14 publications

Is Ex-Post Fiscal Support to PPPs Sustainable? Analysis of Government Loans Granted to Shadow-Toll Roads in Spain: A Case Study

Is Ex-Post Fiscal Support to PPPs Sustainable? Analysis of Government Loans Granted to Shadow-Toll Roads in Spain: A Case Study

Evaluation of PPP road projects in Greece

Estimating the Optimal Time for a Road Concession Contract in Brazil

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