Dealing with uncertainty: A high-density EEG investigation on how intolerance of uncertainty affects emotional predictions

Abstract

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) can influence emotional predictions, constructed by the brain (generation stage) to prearrange action (implementation stage), and update internal models according to incoming stimuli (updating stage). However, neurocomputational mechanisms by which IU affects emotional predictions are unclear. This high-density EEG study investigated if IU predicted event-related potentials (ERPs) and brain sources activity developing along the stages of emotional predictions, as a function of contextual uncertainty. Thirty-six undergraduates underwent a S1-S2 paradigm, with emotional faces and pictures as S1s and S2s, respectively. Contextual uncertainty was manipulated across three blocks, each with 100%, 75%, or 50% S1-S2 emotional congruency. ERPs, brain sources and their relationship with IU scores were analyzed for each stage. IU did not affect prediction generation. During prediction implementation, higher IU predicted larger Contingent Negative Variation in the 75% block, and lower left anterior cingulate cortex and supplementary motor area activations. During prediction updating, as IU increased P2 to positive S2s decreased, along with P2 and Late Positive Potential in the 75% block, and right orbito-frontal cortex activity to emotional S2s. IU was therefore associated with altered uncertainty assessment and heightened attention deployment during implementation, and to uncertainty avoidance, reduced attention to safety cues and disrupted access to emotion regulation strategies during prediction updating.

Investigating how Explicit Contextual Cues Affect Predictive Sensorimotor Control in Autistic Adults

“…Indeed, the IUS-S indexes an individual’s chronic disposition to appraise uncertain outcomes as aversive (Carleton et al, 2007 ), which sits in stark contrast to the highly dynamic and context-sensitive predictive behaviours that were assessed in our virtual racquetball task. Nevertheless, intolerance of uncertainty may affect key moderators of sensorimotor development, such as an individual’s affective state, attention, confidence, and participation in physical activity behaviours (Del Popolo Cristaldi et al, 2021 ; Robinson & Freeston, 2015 ). As such, one must not overlook the potential contribution that the construct plays in more applied daily living skills.…”

How previous experience shapes future affective subjective ratings: A follow-up study investigating implicit learning and cue ambiguity

“…After the test phase, participants were redirected to a Qualtrics survey (Qualtrics, Provo, UT; www.qualtrics.com), in which they were asked demographic information (age, gender) and some mood and trait measures. In particular, participants completed the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS-12) [38] and the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21) [39], as intolerance of uncertainty as well as negative affectivity are known to be potential moderating factors impacting affective predictions [40][41][42][43][44]. Also, participants were asked a forcedchoice question about whether and in how many trials they had experienced any technical issues with the Internet connection and/or with pictures uploading (response options: "No, everything worked fine!…”

“…Predictive processing theories, instead, assume that prediction updating should be modulated by stimuli predictability [11,13,20,65]. Nonetheless, in recent studies it was consistently found that affective processing during the updating stage is not (or is only weakly) influenced by stimulus predictability both at the subjective [18] and at the neural levels [20,41]. Thus, when it comes to updating, more weight seems to be attributed to the affective nature of stimuli themselves and to the contextual information available in the current moment, rather than to top-down predictions based on past experiences.…”

Beauty and Uncertainty as Transformative Factors: A Free Energy Principle Account of Aesthetic Diagnosis and Intervention in Gestalt Psychotherapy

“…When adequate support is lacking in the organism-environment field, excitement/arousal can result in anxiety ( Perls et al, 1951 ): “excitement that should lead to the contact becomes undefined energy” ( Spagnuolo-Lobb, 2015 ; p. 8). Interestingly, it has been suggested that clinical and subclinical anxiety is related to the intolerance of emotionally arousing uncertainty ( Dugas, 1997 ; Bishop, 2007 ; Carleton, 2016 ; Anderson et al, 2019 ) brought by prediction errors ( Del Popolo Cristaldi et al, 2021 ). Intolerance of uncertainty, both at a subjective and neural level, in turn was shown to be detrimental for learning ( Hein et al, 2021 ).…”