Decadal Variability of Winter Warm Arctic‐Cold Eurasia Dipole Patterns Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Luo, Bin; Luo, Dehai; Dai, Aiguo; Simmonds, Ian; Wu, Lixin

doi:10.1029/2021ef002351

Cited by 35 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Therefore, our atmospheric model results due to the stochastic SST forcing are in a manner compatible with previous studies based on satellite products and high-resolution simulations (Bishop et al, 2017;Kirtman et al, 2012;Small, Bryan, et al, 2019. Recent studies suggested that the PDO warm phase is conductive to the formation of "warm Arctic and cold Eurasia" pattern (Kim et al, 2020;Li et al, 2020;Luo et al, 2022;Screen & Francis, 2016;Tokinaga et al, 2017). Reanalysis data shows that during PDO warm phase, 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies basically exhibit an Arctic Oscillation negative phase, and along with the Arctic warming, Eurasia continent is getting colder than normal at high latitudes warmer than normal in midlatitudes (Figure 13a).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Recent studies suggested that the PDO warm phase is conductive to the formation of “warm Arctic and cold Eurasia” pattern (Kim et al., 2020; Li et al., 2020; Luo et al., 2022; Screen & Francis, 2016; Tokinaga et al., 2017). Reanalysis data shows that during PDO warm phase, 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies basically exhibit an Arctic Oscillation negative phase, and along with the Arctic warming, Eurasia continent is getting colder than normal at high latitudes and warmer than normal in midlatitudes (Figure 13a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of Oceanic Stochastic Forcing on Wintertime Atmospheric Decadal Variability Over Midlatitude North Pacific

et al. 2023

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Oceanic Stochastic Forcing on Wintertime Atmospheric Decadal Variability Over Midlatitude North Pacific

et al. 2023

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“…The significant negative correlations indicate that as winter anticyclone activities in Siberia intensify, temperatures in the mid‐latitudes of Eurasia, especially in Siberia, are likely to become low with a higher risk of the appearance of low‐temperature events. These results can be linked with the winter temperature change factors by previous studies, such as the East Asian winter monsoon (Wang and Lu, 2016), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (Luo et al ., 2017a; 2017b; 2022) and phase of the Arctic Oscillation (Woo et al ., 2012).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter anticyclone activities in Siberia and their relationship to the regional temperature anomaly

Chen

Zhang

Guan

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Under global warming, the frequent occurrence of Eurasian extreme cold events in the Northern Hemisphere in recent years has attracted widespread attention. Winter Eurasia near-surface anticyclone activities are closely related to low temperatures. This study uses a new objective anticyclone identification algorithm based on a Mask region-based convolutional neural network (Mask R-CNN) to detect long-term winter Eurasian anticyclone activities. We found that most tracks of Eurasian anticyclones (30.5%) pass Siberia in winter. Anticyclone tracks over Siberia can be well separated into the eastward moving type, the northwest-southeast type, and the local type, with distinct associated circulation patterns. The energy dispersions of upstream Rossby waves have an important influence on the movement, maintenance and intensification of the three types. In association with anticyclones intensifying in Siberia, surface air temperatures in the mid-latitudes of Eurasia, especially Siberia, are significantly lower. In particular, the local type is the most active (56.1%) and is significantly correlated with the winter temperature anomaly in most areas of East Asia. Further research indicates that the preceding autumn sea ice condition in the Barents Sea can be used as a precursor factor to modulate the local type anticyclone activity and winter temperature anomaly in East Asia. In years of less ice, a quasi-meridional wave activity flux originating from the Barents Sea is more active, and the centre SLP of the local type anticyclone is higher with more cold air mass carried, which in turn results in colder weather in Siberia, the Mongolian Plateau and East Asia.

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“…If confirmed, this result would suggest that the North Atlantic heat transported to the Arctic would not be as determinant in sea ice changes in the Chukchi Sea. Very recently Luo et al (2022) further highlighted the joint effect of AMO and PDO on the decadal variability of Arctic air temperatures. The loss of summer Arctic sea ice and flushing of multi-layer sea ice out of basin in the past decade has already changed the atmospheric circulation.…”

Section: Links With the Amo And Amocmentioning

confidence: 99%

Centennial-scale variability of sea-ice cover in the Chukchi Sea since AD 1850 based on biomarker reconstruction

Bai

Sicre

Ren

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Paleo-climate proxy records documenting sea-ice extent are important sources of information to assess the time of emergence and magnitude of on-going changes in the Arctic Ocean and better predict future climate and environmental evolution in that region. In this study, a suite of geochemical tracers including total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), carbon/nitrogen ratio (C/N), stable isotope composition of organic carbon and nitrogen (δ 13C, δ 15N), and phytoplankton biomarkers (highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs) and sterols) were measured in a marine sediment core to document the sea-ice variability in the Chukchi Sea since the beginning of the Industrial Era. The downcore profile of the sea-ice proxy HBIs suggests a transition from extensive sea ice in the late 19th century to Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) in AD 1930–1990s and then moderate sea-ice cover since 1990s. Rising of all HBI abundances between AD 1865–1875 indicate a transient retreat of summer ice edge off the shelf followed by a return to near-perennial sea ice till 1920–1930 as revealed by the absence of HBIs and brassicasterol. Sea ice retreat occurred again in AD 1920–1930 and followed by colder decades in 1940s–1960s before a sustained decline since the 1990s. The downcore profile of C/N, δ 13C of organic matter and sterols indicates a gradual increase of terrigenous inputs accelerating during the most recent decades likely due to enhanced fluvial run-off and sediment transport by sediment-laden sea ice. Concomitantly, increasing δ 15N values suggest limited nutrient utilization due to enhanced stratification of the surface ocean caused by increased freshening. The role of the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are discussed to explore potential drivers of the observed sea-ice changes.

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Decadal Variability of Winter Warm Arctic‐Cold Eurasia Dipole Patterns Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Abstract: A prominent feature of Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate variations in recent decades is the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern in winter surface air temperature (SAT) (

Cited by 35 publications

References 55 publications

Effect of Oceanic Stochastic Forcing on Wintertime Atmospheric Decadal Variability Over Midlatitude North Pacific

Effect of Oceanic Stochastic Forcing on Wintertime Atmospheric Decadal Variability Over Midlatitude North Pacific

Winter anticyclone activities in Siberia and their relationship to the regional temperature anomaly

Centennial-scale variability of sea-ice cover in the Chukchi Sea since AD 1850 based on biomarker reconstruction

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