Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

Runge, Michael C.; LaGory, Kirk E.; Russell, Kendra L.; Balsom, Janet R.; Butler, Robert A.; Coggins, Lewis G.; Grantz, Katrina; Hayse, J.; Hlohowskyj, I.; Korman, Josh; May, James E.; O'Rourke, Daniel J.; Poch, L. A.; Prairie, James; VanKuiken, J.C.; Lonkhuyzen, R.A. Van; Varyu, David; Verhaaren, Bruce; Veselka, T.D.; Williams, Nicholas; Wuthrich, Kelsey K.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Billerbeck, Robert P.; Knowles, Glen W.

doi:10.3133/sir20155176

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…), however, mechanical removal is financially costly and unpopular with some stakeholders (Runge et al. ). Doubling of rainbow trout abundances could occur through changes in the environmental conditions that favor rainbow trout recruitment in upstream reaches, however, it is unlikely that average recruitment increases by much more than this in the foreseeable future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, stakeholders may object to removal experiments without strong evidence, prior to an experiment, that introduced species are responsible for declines in native species (Runge et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nonetheless, multiple Native American tribes point to the altered physical environment that may be more important than biotic interactions for humpback chub populations, and are opposed to removal efforts without stronger evidence demonstrating that trout are having negative effects on the humpback chub population (Runge et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, in politically charged situations, managers may be unwilling to continue experiments if the apparent effect sizes associated with single replicates are either very large or very small, regardless of potential confounding. In addition, stakeholders may object to removal experiments without strong evidence, prior to an experiment, that introduced species are responsible for declines in native species (Runge et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis

Yackulic

Korman²,

Yard

et al. 2018

Ecology

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Introduced species are frequently implicated in declines of native species. In many cases, however, evidence linking introduced species to native declines is weak. Failure to make strong inferences regarding the role of introduced species can hamper attempts to predict population viability and delay effective management responses. For many species, mark-recapture analysis is the more rigorous form of demographic analysis. However, to our knowledge, there are no mark-recapture models that allow for joint modeling of interacting species. Here, we introduce a two-species mark-recapture population model in which the vital rates (and capture probabilities) of one species are allowed to vary in response to the abundance of the other species. We use a simulation study to explore bias and choose an approach to model selection. We then use the model to investigate species interactions between endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) and introduced rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River between 2009 and 2016. In particular, we test hypotheses about how two environmental factors (turbidity and temperature), intraspecific density dependence, and rainbow trout abundance are related to survival, growth, and capture of juvenile humpback chub. We also project the long-term effects of different rainbow trout abundances on adult humpback chub abundances. Our simulation study suggests this approach has minimal bias under potentially challenging circumstances (i.e., low capture probabilities) that characterized our application and that model selection using indicator variables could reliably identify the true generating model even when process error was high. When the model was applied to rainbow trout and humpback chub, we identified negative relationships between rainbow trout abundance and the survival, growth, and capture probability of juvenile humpback chub. Effects on interspecific interactions on survival and capture probability were strongly supported, whereas support for the growth effect was weaker. Environmental factors were also identified to be important and in many cases stronger than interspecific interactions, and there was still substantial unexplained variation in growth and survival rates. The general approach presented here for combining mark-recapture data for two species is applicable in many other systems and could be modified to model abundance of the invader via other modeling approaches.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis

Yackulic

Korman²,

Yard

et al. 2018

Ecology

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“…The decision‐analytical approach presented in this paper is designed to achieve this goal. Management of environmental flows (Koehn et al, ; Runge et al, ), ecological river assessment (Reichert et al, ), waste water management (Schuwirth, Reichert, & Lienert, ), and conservation of endangered species in the face of climate change (Gregory et al, ) are all situations where a decision‐analytical approach has been or could be helpful. The approach is scalable but often requires considerable time for collaboration, information gathering, and analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing a landscape‐scale, multi‐species, and cost‐efficient conservation strategy for imperilled aquatic species in the Upper Tennessee River Basin, USA

Smith

Butler

Jones

et al. 2017

Aquatic Conservation

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Strategic conservation of imperilled species faces several major challenges including uncertainty in species response to management actions, budgetary constraints that limit options, and the need to scale expected conservation benefits from local to landscape levels and from single to multiple species. A structured decision‐making process was applied to address these challenges and identify a cost‐effective conservation strategy for the Federally listed endangered and threatened aquatic species in the Upper Tennessee River Basin (UTRB). The UTRB, which encompasses a landscape of ~58 000 km2, primarily in western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and south‐western Virginia, harbours one of the most globally diverse assemblages of freshwater fishes and mussels at temperate latitudes. To develop a strategy for conservation of 12 fish species and 24 mussel species over a 20‐year period, a management strategy that would best recover these species was identified given costs and uncertainty in management effectiveness. The main insights came from a trade‐off analysis that compared alternative allocations of effort among management actions. A strategy emphasizing population management, which included propagation and translocation, performed best across a wide range of objective weightings and was robust to uncertainty in management effectiveness. Species prioritization was based on the expected conservation benefit from the best performing strategy, degree of imperilment, and species‐specific management costs. Sub‐basin prioritization was based on expected conservation benefit from the best performing strategy and feasibility of habitat management and threat abatement. Although the strategy was developed for imperilled aquatic species in the UTRB, the structured process is applicable for developing cost‐efficient strategies to conserve multiple species across a landscape under uncertain management effectiveness. The process can assist a manager with limited resources to understand which species to work on, where to conduct that work, and what work would be most beneficial for those species in those catchments.

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Quantifying flow and nonflow management impacts on an endangered fish by integrating data, research, and expert opinion

Yackulic

Archdeacon

Valdez³

et al. 2022

Ecosphere

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Managers charged with recovering endangered species in regulated river segments often have limited flexibility to alter flow regimes and want estimates of the expected population benefits associated with both flow and nonflow management actions. Disentangling impacts on different life stages from concurrently applied actions is essential for determining the effectiveness of each action, but difficult without models that integrate multiple information sources. Here, we develop and fit an integrated population model for endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow (Hybognathus amarus) in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico. We integrate catch per unit effort monitoring data collected during 2002-2018 with population estimates, data collected during rescue of minnow from drying pools, habitat availability estimates, laboratory results, releases of hatchery reared minnow, and expert opinion. We use expert elicitation to develop a larval carrying capacity index as an informed proxy for the complex interactions among flow, habitat, and life history in this species. We evaluate the model using out-of-sample forecasts of 2019 and 2020, develop an algorithm to identify supplemental water releases that maximize benefits to the minnow, and quantify the effectiveness of various actions. Experts generally agreed on the duration and

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Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

Abstract: Back: Lower Beaver Falls lies approximately 4 miles up Havasu Creek from its confluence with the Colorado River at river mile 157 and is the site of ongoing endangered humpback chub translocations.

Cited by 11 publications

References 7 publications

Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis

Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis

Developing a landscape‐scale, multi‐species, and cost‐efficient conservation strategy for imperilled aquatic species in the Upper Tennessee River Basin, USA

Quantifying flow and nonflow management impacts on an endangered fish by integrating data, research, and expert opinion

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