Decision‐making and diagnosis in disease management

Hughes, Victoria; McRoberts,; Burnett,

doi:10.1046/j.1365-3059.1999.00327.x

Cited by 62 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…A different threshold may be preferred, depending on the aim of the grower, and possibly other beneficiaries. Lowering the threshold reduces the number of false negatives and increases false positives, and increasing the threshold does the opposite; a full analysis on this trade-off can be made with the ROC curve (Hughes et al 1999). Potential benefits of the model in terms of financial profit can not be identified with such an analysis, yet this is the most deciding factor in whether a predictive model is likely to be adopted (Royle and Shaw 1988).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Beest

Shaw

Pietravalle³

et al. 2009

Eur J Plant Pathol

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Disease-weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0°C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Performance of the minimum temperature and rain model (Model 1,Table 3) formulated for the prediction of a damaging epidemic of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat Obs is the number of observations b YS is the number of year-sites c sensitivity and d specificity of the model as described inHughes et al (1999) …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Beest

Shaw

Pietravalle³

et al. 2009

Eur J Plant Pathol

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“…The association of airborne conidia of B. cinerea with disease has been recorded in other crops, too, such as strawberry [11,12], raspberry [13], grapes [14,15] and gerbera [16]. Knowledge of temporal and spatial dynamics of plant diseases has led to the development of several forecasting systems, hence, resulted in better disease management [17].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Botrytis Blight of Gladiolus (Gladiolus grandiflorus L.) Caused by Botrytis gladiolorum in Susceptible and Resistant Varieties

Pk¹,

Pj²,

Ms³

2015

J Plant Pathol Microbiol

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“…The procedure proposed by Hughes et al (1999), Makowski et al (2005) and Primot et al (2006) was applied to our data set. Hereafter, the procedure is detailed for models; readers can refer to Makowski et al (2009) for its application on individual indicators.…”

Section: Individual Indicators and Model Performancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodological approach to identify cheap and accurate indicators for biodiversity assessment: application to grazing management and two grassland bird species

Tichit

Barbottin

Makowski

2010

Animal

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In response to environmental threats, numerous indicators have been developed to assess the impact of livestock farming systems on the environment. Some of them, notably those based on management practices have been reported to have low accuracy. This paper reports the results of a study aimed at assessing whether accuracy can be increased at a reasonable cost by mixing individual indicators into models. We focused on proxy indicators representing an alternative to the direct impact measurement on two grassland bird species, the lapwing Vanellus vanellus and the redshank Tringa totanus. Models were developed using stepwise selection procedures or Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Sensitivity, specificity, and probability of correctly ranking fields (area under the curve, AUC) were estimated for each individual indicator or model from observational data measured on 252 grazed plots during 2 years. The cost of implementation of each model was computed as a function of the number and types of input variables. Among all management indicators, 50% had an AUC lower than or equal to 0.50 and thus were not better than a random decision. Independently of the statistical procedure, models combining management indicators were always more accurate than individual indicators for lapwings only. In redshanks, models based either on BMA or some selection procedures were non-informative. Higher accuracy could be reached, for both species, with model mixing management and habitat indicators. However, this increase in accuracy was also associated with an increase in model cost. Models derived by BMA were more expensive and slightly less accurate than those derived with selection procedures. Analysing trade-offs between accuracy and cost of indicators opens promising application perspectives as time consuming and expensive indicators are likely to be of low practical utility.Keywords: livestock farming system, Bayesian model averaging, model selection, sensitivity, specificity ImplicationIndicator accuracy is of particular concern when indicators are developed for decision-making purpose. One way to improve the accuracy of individual indicators is to combine several ones using logistic regression. Our results show that special attention should be paid to model selection procedure. Models derived without selection were more expensive and slightly less accurate than those derived using a selection procedure. Analysing trade-offs between accuracy and cost of indicators opens promising perspectives as time consuming and expensive indicators are likely to be of low practical utility.

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Decision‐making and diagnosis in disease management

Cited by 62 publications

References 21 publications

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Botrytis Blight of Gladiolus (Gladiolus grandiflorus L.) Caused by Botrytis gladiolorum in Susceptible and Resistant Varieties

A methodological approach to identify cheap and accurate indicators for biodiversity assessment: application to grazing management and two grassland bird species

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