Decision-Making Heuristics for Managing Climate-Related Risks: Introducing Equity to the FREE Framework

Abstract

Managing climate-related risks is clouded in differing levels of uncertainty that are magnified when trying to understand their potential impacts on socio-ecological systems. The ‘cascade of uncertainty’ is particularly apparent in Africa where socio-ecological data are sparse, and the development and validation of impact models are at varying stages. In this context, using heuristics may serve as an effective way for policy makers to incorporate climate change knowledge into decision-making. Previous scholarship has identified the principles of Flexibility, Robustness and Economic low/no regrets in decision-making under uncertainty. In this chapter, we first make the case for adding Equity to these heuristics, where equity involves ensuring that reducing the climate change risk for one cohort of society does not result in its increase for another. Second, we describe how these principles have been applied under two DFID/NERC funded projects: ForPAc and AMMA-2050 through the use of Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis tools.

Pandemic Preparedness: A Scoping Review of Best and Worst Practices from COVID-19

“…In attempting to avoid a siloed debate around a specific topic, we aimed to develop a Concept of Global Health that was in line with the latest declarations related to Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals [ 55 ]. This method also offers interesting overlaps with the latest responsible co-production of knowledge approaches, acknowledging that communities (and, generally, society) should be at the forefront of knowledge co-creation to ensure their culture, priorities, and behaviours are respected, which, in turn, ensures a useful, usable, and, ultimately, used preparedness response [ 9 , 56 , 57 ].…”

A modelling-chain linking climate science and decision-makers for future urban flood management in West Africa

“…The second stage was iterative and involved communicating science and co-developing tools that could better support decision-maker needs. Physical scientists worked closely with social scientists who utilised the Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (PIPA) process framework for incorporating information into decision-making-outlined in Audia et al (2021). This guided regular meetings between the 'Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement' (2iE-www.…”

“…The second stage was iterative and involved communicating science and co-developing tools that could better support decision-maker needs. Physical scientists worked closely with social scientists who utilised the Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (PIPA) process framework for incorporating information into decision-making—outlined in Audia et al ( 2021 ). This guided regular meetings between the ‘Institut International d’Ingénierie de l’Eau et de l’Environnement’ (2iE— www.2ie-edu.org ) and technically focused Ouagadougou decision-makers operating within the Ministry of Urbanism (MoU) and local Mayor’s office to enable engagement and identify decision-making contexts relating to resilient urban flood policy and planning.…”

Adaptive Governance to Manage Human Mobility and Natural Resource Stress

“…While such an iterative approach may be initially unsettling for policymakers, the migration-resource nexus demands such malleability. The use of 'FREE heuristics' or policy and decision-making aiming to be Flexible, Robust, Economic No/Low Regrets and Equitable (FREE) has also been proposed in some contexts (Audia et al, 2021). Through this concluding section we have attempted to provide specific examples of policy tools which could be used in a range of qualitatively diffuse scenarios involving resources and human mobility.…”